MESQUITE, NEVADA REAL ESTATE
WHAT'S ACTUALLY SELLING TODAY AND WHAT IS NOT?
Mesquite Nevada real estate listed below includes single family homes, condos, townhomes, and modular homes in the City of Mesquite
For January 2010, 35 transactions closed in the Mesquite MLS with an average price of $101 per square foot or $153,041. 68 new listings were submitted. 33 properties moved to pending with an average ASKING PRICE of $95 per square foot, 20 of those pendings were distressed properties. 99 listings went out as failed in January 2010.
For the month of December 2009, 47 transactions closed in the Mesquite MLS with an average price of $89 per square foot. 50 new listings have been submitted. 30 properties moved to pending with an average ASKING PRICE of $104 per square foot, 19 of those pendings were distressed properties. 94 listings went out as failed in December.
For the month of November, 31 transactions closed in the Mesquite MLS with an average price of $95 per square foot. 65 new listings were submitted, 39 moved to pending with an average ASKING PRICE of $98 per square foot, 21 of these pendings are distressed properties.
If you are dealing with one of those market cheerleaders telling you things are getting better as far as pricing goes, YOU better look for an honest agent with some real facts.
Don't miss the Mesquite Market Quarterly report due out mid April 2010.
Register To Receive Mesquite Market Quarterly
From my view of the local Mesquite market, there is no bottom in sight, only more and more distressed properties for sale. Sales prices not sales volume will be the measure of the bottom, and the prices are still falling. Buyers are playing poker with the banks and the banks inventory is growing everyday. The amount of shadow inventory is impossible to measure but I assure you there is a flood coming.
Most of these homes will have window coverings, back yard landscape, water treatment systems, and other upgrades you will not get buying direct from Pulte Del Webb. Without the assistance of a local Realtor, the average buyer will never know these are available since they do not allow any signs.
105 Realtor assisted sales have sold and closed TOTAL since Sun City opened in 2007 and have averaged $149 per square foot, per Mesquite MLS. Realtors sold 34 Sun City Homes per Mesquite MLS in 2009 at an average price of $147 per square foot, with the median price being $243,950
116 "Notice of Defaults were filed and recorded with Clark County in Mesquite Nevada during the first quarter of 2009, that amounts to 1.45% of all residential units in town, these will be foreclosures later this year. 54 NOD's were filed in Mesquite from September 1 to October 12, that is 9 per week! A huge spike. These will be the distressed properties of next spring, the inventory for sale in 2010 when the buyer tax credits run out.
Clearly inventory is growing, including unlisted, unsold, vacant bank owned property and prices continue to drop. The banks are fighting back and rejecting offers, not even countering them. The tug of war between smart buyers and banks will continue well through 2010. Smart buyers will RELAX and let banks squirm.
Will the government spending stimulus rally start today? This feels like the "eye of the storm" to me. Either way, the days of loose money and excess everything are apparently over.
The number of VACANT buildings, both residential and commercial are at historical highs and growing.
Most of what is going out of the active inventory is failed, canceled, expired, or withdrawn rather than sold and closed. These failed properties are still out there, many are vacant and still need to sell. Some are headed to foreclosure. Mesquite's foreclosure properties will be the competition in tomorrow's market. Motivated banks, pricing some, not all properties to sell. The number of failed listings year to date exceeds sold and closed listings nearly 5 to 1.
At the current market prices, for many sellers, a short sale or foreclosure may be the only option, call me to discuss your options, Chris 435-862-5951
Residential Building Permits, 378 issued by the City of Mesquite during 2008. Sun City Mesquite pulled a majority of these building permits, adding pressure to the supply side. 2009 The City of Mesquite has issued 105 new residential building permits, including Sun City.
The City of Mesquite issued 22 new home building permits in January 2010, builders gearing to compete with resales, Bank owned REO'S, and Short Sales.
Tuned In" sellers who still have equity are getting the news and adjusting to this new market and some are selling. Staying in front of the current trend is very challenging for most sellers. Most sellers continue to "Chase the Market down".
"BUYER BEWARE" IS REAL, GET AN APPRAISAL
Read This! Investment Outlook Bill Gross | August 2008
Anyone serious about selling a home today needs to understand the market and the buyers mindset. As prices trend down, buyer's are watching and waiting. While sellers look back at last years prices, buyers are looking forward, reading the news and looking for a better value. Serious sellers are in front of the trend. De-leveraging is a slow grinding process. Since no one knows how long or how far it may go, chasing it down could prove to be a long discouraging ride.
Market number break down for the last 90 days "Mesquite Market Quarterly", due out mid April 2010. Sign up to receive this free market report on the front page.
Most of what is going out of the active inventory is failed, canceled, expired, or withdrawn rather than sold and closed. These failed properties are still out there, many are vacant and still need to sell. Some are headed to foreclosure. Mesquite's foreclosure properties will be the competition in tomorrow's market. Motivated banks, pricing some, not all properties to sell. The number of failed listings year to date exceeds sold and closed listings nearly 5 to 1.
At the current market prices, for many sellers, a short sale or foreclosure may be the only option, call me to discuss your options, Chris 435-862-5951
Residential Building Permits, 378 issued by the City of Mesquite during 2008. Sun City Mesquite pulled a majority of these building permits, adding pressure to the supply side. 2009 The City of Mesquite has issued 105 new residential building permits, including Sun City.
"Tuned In" sellers who still have equity are getting the news and adjusting to this new market and some are selling. Staying in front of the current trend is very challenging for most sellers. Most sellers continue to "Chase the Market down". "BUYER BEWARE" IS REAL, GET AN APPRAISAL!
Anyone serious about selling a home today needs to understand the market and the buyers mindset. As prices trend down, buyer's are watching and waiting. While sellers look back at last years prices, buyers are looking forward, reading the news and looking for a better value. Serious sellers are in front of the trend. De-leveraging is a slow grinding process. Since no one knows how long or how far it may go, chasing it down could prove to be a long discouraging ride.
Market number break down for the last 90 days "Mesquite Market Quarterly", due out mid April 2010. Sign up to receive this free market report on the front page.
Register To Receive Mesquite Market Quarterly
Register To Receive Mesquite Market Quarterly
(Sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date.)
Knowledge of the current market will be your key to success. Mistakes may prove very costly. Information on the short sale, and REO properties may not be available through MLS, Clark County assessor records are your best and most accurate source for those property comparable prices, it is public information. Agents in many cases may not have knowledge of these sales.
Learn How to Buy Right! We offer "Mesquite Market Smart Buyer" seminars every Saturday morning. Contact Chris Miller at ERA Brokers Consolidated to reserve your seat.
If you would like average price per square foot for a certain neighborhood, we will be happy to provide you a detailed report. Receive a comparable property evaluation on your property free.
RECENT SALES HISTORY:
The past few years were amazing in real estate. The returns for investors were huge. Unprecedented rates of housing cost inflation, and demand. Mesquite enjoyed this explosive market at every level and everyone is thrilled....right? Well, yes and no, this new market presents challenges for both buyers and sellers. From the buyer's side, the words "Sticker Shock" and "affordable housing" have taken on a new and real meaning. For sellers, due to the illusion of stellar appreciation rates, which may prove to be nothing more than nasty inflation driven by the excessive money supply, the line from the 1987 movie Wall Street, "Greed is Good" comes to mind, and may prove to be a stumbling block for many hoping to cash in. Achieving a balance here will be the challenge. As it always does the Market will find its fair value. A word of caution, we have seen some extremes, both high and low, so do your homework.
The market is now paying a terrible price for the funny money, speculation, and greed.
Since we broke our crystal ball here at Mesquite Market.com, we will leave predicting the future to someone else. The following statistics are from the local multiple listing service. Sold and closed as well as new units listed each month for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and now 2009 and includes all single family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. New refers to new listing versus newly built and sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date. As 2009 unfolds you can refer to these, compare and draw your own conclusions.
2005 Statistics:
January sold 41 units, 50 units listed
February sold 38 units, 50 units listed
March sold 69 units, 61 units listed
April sold 66 units, 78 units listed
May sold 67 units, 59 units listed
June sold 71 units, 62 units listed
July sold 55 units, 92 units listed
August sold 71 units, 82 units listed
September sold 75 units, 84 units listed
October sold 51 units, 85 units listed
November sold 53 units, 101 units listed
December sold 37 units, 71 units listed
2006 Statistics:
January sold 38, 66 units listed
February sold 43, 83 units listed
March sold 59, 89 units listed
April sold 44, 77 units listed
May sold 43, 81 units listed
June sold 41, 77 units listed
July sold 37, 54 units listed
August sold 44, 90 units listed
September sold 40, 91 units listed
October sold 25, 128 units listed
November sold 37, 95 units listed
December sold 31, 49 units listed
2006 sales were down 23% from 2005.
2007 Statistics:
January sold 28, 88 units listed
February sold 31, 78 units listed
March sold 60, 83 units listed
April sold 56, 76 units listed
May sold 50, 94 units listed
June sold 41, 82 units listed
July sold 34, 59 units listed
August sold 26, 79 units listed
September sold 24, 84 units listed
October sold 20, 88 units listed
November sold 30, 75 units listed
December sold 16, 64 units listed
Sales Prices were down from 19% to 30%, December 2006 to December 2007.
2008 Statistics:
January sold 26, 101 units listed
February sold 12, 76 units listed
March sold 35, 184 units listed
April sold 33, 69 units listed
May sold 30, 63 units listed
June sold 24, 67 units listed
July sold 25, 76 units listed
August sold 14, 57 units listed
September sold 19, 64 units listed
October sold 21, 73 units listed
November sold 20, 105 units listed
December sold 18, 54 units listed
2009 Statistics:
January sold 14, 76 units listed
February sold 26, 55 units listed
March sold 25, 76 units listed
April sold 25, 117 units listed
May sold 28, 62 units listed
June sold 32, 69 units listed
July sold 25, 59 units listed
August sold 30, 69 units listed
September sold 36, 88 units listed
October sold 30, 62 units listed
November sold 36, 65 units listed
December sold 53, December closings averaged $89 per square foot, 50 units listed
For prices per square foot and specific neighborhood numbers contact us, we will be happy to break these numbers down further with you.
Is There A Bubble In Mesquite?
Before discussing the existence of a bubble, we need to define the term. We offer a few definitions: "If the reason the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be higher tomorrow - when 'fundamental' factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists."
Accordingly, the key features of a bubble are that the level of prices has been bid up beyond what is consistent with underlying fundamentals and that buyers of the asset do so with the expectation of future price increases. Think speculators!
Joseph Stiglitz (1990): "A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by rapid decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). ..."
We can define a bubble as activities that spring up on the back of loose monetary policy of the central bank. In other words, in the absence of monetary pumping these activities would not emerge. Since bubble activities are not self-funded, their emergence must come at the expense of various self-funded or productive activities. This means that less real funding is left for productive activities, which in turn undermines those activities. In short, monetary pumping gives rise to the misallocation of resources, which as a rule manifests itself through a relative increase in non-productive activities against productive activities. - Greenspan
The Oxford English dictionary defines it as "a gas-filled cavity in liquid or in solidified liquid." One might say it has form but no substance -- the outward appearance of something substantial, but once the outside is pierced it is revealed to be based on a false impression. In the case of home prices, the interpretation would be that current home prices or price increases will be revealed to have been based on a false impression and when the surface is pierced we will see a substantial fall in prices.
Being in a "housing bubble" essentially means that home prices have ballooned beyond what a region's income levels or outside demand can sustain in the long run. If it is not a bubble when the market price of an asset is completely out of whack with the fundamental value of the asset, what do you call it? Fundamental value being set by a reasonable expectation of what rate of return can be expected from a comparable investment or what would it cost to replace it. The fundamental value in the case of a home is how much it can rent for and what would it cost to replace it, or can demand alone create fundamental value. At this point, minus potential future appreciation from the equation, it is much cheaper to rent than buy.
As a result, many recent home-buyers are making higher mortgage payments for the type and size of home that others are leasing for much smaller monthly rents. Those sitting on variable rate mortgages will face even higher monthly payments. The current job market can not support the real estate prices, so the question for Mesquite is will retirees continue to invest in real estate without regard to rates of return on their money? Can we count on the outside demand to sustain value? As long as they are going to live in it and are willing to pay the price, then does rate of return or replacement cost have no bearing on fundamental value?
Does this market lead to the conclusion that it makes better economic sense to rent and invest the difference? Or will those willing to invest without regard to investment return continue to drive up prices, to the point appreciation offsets higher cost of owning? Sounds like market timing. More likely, this simply emphasizes the need to know the market and buy right. Today there exists an eighteen to twenty four month supply of property available on the market, based on September and October 2007 actual closed transactions and that supply keeps growing along with the number of new real estate agents. Smart buyers are Hiring Experienced Buyers Agents to represent them. Short of the continued outside demand, looking at the fundamentals, implicit rents, income, local job market, it is a bubble, but don't hold your breath.
The conclusion I come to, based on current demographic shifts, Mesquite has what those retiring boomers are looking for, but can they afford our prices? Not everyone can afford to live in Scottsdale or Palm Springs, but some demand remains and they still grow and that likely is a glimpse into the future of Mesquite. What we are seeing today is more like a bump in the road, a correction in pricing. Mesquite's bright future remains just that! CWM 4/20/06
Are You Ready For A SOLD Sign?
(Sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date.)
Knowledge of the current market will be your key to success. Mistakes may prove very costly. Information on the short sale, and REO properties may not be available through MLS, Clark County assessor records are your best and most accurate source for those property comparable prices, it is public information. Agents in many cases may not have knowledge of these sales.
Learn How to Buy Right! We offer "Mesquite Market Smart Buyer" seminars every Saturday morning. Contact Chris Miller at ERA Brokers Consolidated to reserve your seat.
If you would like average price per square foot for a certain neighborhood, we will be happy to provide you a detailed report. Receive a comparable property evaluation on your property free.
RECENT SALES HISTORY:
The past few years were amazing in real estate. The returns for investors were huge. Unprecedented rates of housing cost inflation, and demand. Mesquite enjoyed this explosive market at every level and everyone is thrilled....right? Well, yes and no, this new market presents challenges for both buyers and sellers. From the buyer's side, the words "Sticker Shock" and "affordable housing" have taken on a new and real meaning. For sellers, due to the illusion of stellar appreciation rates, which may prove to be nothing more than nasty inflation driven by the excessive money supply, the line from the 1987 movie Wall Street, "Greed is Good" comes to mind, and may prove to be a stumbling block for many hoping to cash in. Achieving a balance here will be the challenge. As it always does the Market will find its fair value. A word of caution, we have seen some extremes, both high and low, so do your homework.
The market is now paying a terrible price for the funny money, speculation, and greed.
Since we broke our crystal ball here at Mesquite Market.com, we will leave predicting the future to someone else. The following statistics are from the local multiple listing service. Sold and closed as well as new units listed each month for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and now 2009 and includes all single family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. New refers to new listing versus newly built and sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date. As 2009 unfolds you can refer to these, compare and draw your own conclusions.
2005 Statistics:
January sold 41 units, 50 units listed
February sold 38 units, 50 units listed
March sold 69 units, 61 units listed
April sold 66 units, 78 units listed
May sold 67 units, 59 units listed
June sold 71 units, 62 units listed
July sold 55 units, 92 units listed
August sold 71 units, 82 units listed
September sold 75 units, 84 units listed
October sold 51 units, 85 units listed
November sold 53 units, 101 units listed
December sold 37 units, 71 units listed
2006 Statistics:
January sold 38, 66 units listed
February sold 43, 83 units listed
March sold 59, 89 units listed
April sold 44, 77 units listed
May sold 43, 81 units listed
June sold 41, 77 units listed
July sold 37, 54 units listed
August sold 44, 90 units listed
September sold 40, 91 units listed
October sold 25, 128 units listed
November sold 37, 95 units listed
December sold 31, 49 units listed
2006 sales were down 23% from 2005.
2007 Statistics:
January sold 28, 88 units listed
February sold 31, 78 units listed
March sold 60, 83 units listed
April sold 56, 76 units listed
May sold 50, 94 units listed
June sold 41, 82 units listed
July sold 34, 59 units listed
August sold 26, 79 units listed
September sold 24, 84 units listed
October sold 20, 88 units listed
November sold 30, 75 units listed
December sold 16, 64 units listed
Sales Prices were down from 19% to 30%, December 2006 to December 2007.
2008 Statistics:
January sold 26, 101 units listed
February sold 12, 76 units listed
March sold 35, 184 units listed
April sold 33, 69 units listed
May sold 30, 63 units listed
June sold 24, 67 units listed
July sold 25, 76 units listed
August sold 14, 57 units listed
September sold 19, 64 units listed
October sold 21, 73 units listed
November sold 20, 105 units listed
December sold 18, 54 units listed
2009 Statistics:
January sold 14, 76 units listed
February sold 26, 55 units listed
March sold 25, 76 units listed
April sold 25, 117 units listed
May sold 28, 62 units listed
June sold 32, 69 units listed
July sold 25, 59 units listed
August sold 30, 69 units listed
September sold 36, 88 units listed
October sold 30, 62 units listed
November sold 36, 65 units listed
December sold 53, December closings averaged $89 per square foot, 50 units listed
For prices per square foot and specific neighborhood numbers contact us, we will be happy to break these numbers down further with you.
Is There A Bubble In Mesquite?
Before discussing the existence of a bubble, we need to define the term. We offer a few definitions: "If the reason the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be higher tomorrow - when 'fundamental' factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists."
Accordingly, the key features of a bubble are that the level of prices has been bid up beyond what is consistent with underlying fundamentals and that buyers of the asset do so with the expectation of future price increases. Think speculators!
Joseph Stiglitz (1990): "A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by rapid decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). ..."
We can define a bubble as activities that spring up on the back of loose monetary policy of the central bank. In other words, in the absence of monetary pumping these activities would not emerge. Since bubble activities are not self-funded, their emergence must come at the expense of various self-funded or productive activities. This means that less real funding is left for productive activities, which in turn undermines those activities. In short, monetary pumping gives rise to the misallocation of resources, which as a rule manifests itself through a relative increase in non-productive activities against productive activities. - Greenspan
The Oxford English dictionary defines it as "a gas-filled cavity in liquid or in solidified liquid." One might say it has form but no substance -- the outward appearance of something substantial, but once the outside is pierced it is revealed to be based on a false impression. In the case of home prices, the interpretation would be that current home prices or price increases will be revealed to have been based on a false impression and when the surface is pierced we will see a substantial fall in prices.
Being in a "housing bubble" essentially means that home prices have ballooned beyond what a region's income levels or outside demand can sustain in the long run. If it is not a bubble when the market price of an asset is completely out of whack with the fundamental value of the asset, what do you call it? Fundamental value being set by a reasonable expectation of what rate of return can be expected from a comparable investment or what would it cost to replace it. The fundamental value in the case of a home is how much it can rent for and what would it cost to replace it, or can demand alone create fundamental value. At this point, minus potential future appreciation from the equation, it is much cheaper to rent than buy.
As a result, many recent home-buyers are making higher mortgage payments for the type and size of home that others are leasing for much smaller monthly rents. Those sitting on variable rate mortgages will face even higher monthly payments. The current job market can not support the real estate prices, so the question for Mesquite is will retirees continue to invest in real estate without regard to rates of return on their money? Can we count on the outside demand to sustain value? As long as they are going to live in it and are willing to pay the price, then does rate of return or replacement cost have no bearing on fundamental value?
Does this market lead to the conclusion that it makes better economic sense to rent and invest the difference? Or will those willing to invest without regard to investment return continue to drive up prices, to the point appreciation offsets higher cost of owning? Sounds like market timing. More likely, this simply emphasizes the need to know the market and buy right. Today there exists an eighteen to twenty four month supply of property available on the market, based on September and October 2007 actual closed transactions and that supply keeps growing along with the number of new real estate agents. Smart buyers are Hiring Experienced Buyers Agents to represent them. Short of the continued outside demand, looking at the fundamentals, implicit rents, income, local job market, it is a bubble, but don't hold your breath.
The conclusion I come to, based on current demographic shifts, Mesquite has what those retiring boomers are looking for, but can they afford our prices? Not everyone can afford to live in Scottsdale or Palm Springs, but some demand remains and they still grow and that likely is a glimpse into the future of Mesquite. What we are seeing today is more like a bump in the road, a correction in pricing. Mesquite's bright future remains just that! CWM 4/20/06
Are You Ready For A SOLD Sign?
Most of what is going out of the active inventory is failed, canceled, expired, or withdrawn rather than sold and closed. These failed properties are still out there, many are vacant and still need to sell. Some are headed to foreclosure. Mesquite's foreclosure properties will be the competition in tomorrow's market. Motivated banks, pricing some, not all properties to sell. The number of failed listings year to date exceeds sold and closed listings nearly 5 to 1.
At the current market prices, for many sellers, a short sale or foreclosure may be the only option, call me to discuss your options, Chris 435-862-5951
Residential Building Permits, 378 issued by the City of Mesquite during 2008. Sun City Mesquite pulled a majority of these building permits, adding pressure to the supply side. 2009 The City of Mesquite has issued 105 new residential building permits, including Sun City.
"Tuned In" sellers who still have equity are getting the news and adjusting to this new market and some are selling. Staying in front of the current trend is very challenging for most sellers. Most sellers continue to "Chase the Market down". "BUYER BEWARE" IS REAL, GET AN APPRAISAL!
Anyone serious about selling a home today needs to understand the market and the buyers mindset. As prices trend down, buyer's are watching and waiting. While sellers look back at last years prices, buyers are looking forward, reading the news and looking for a better value. Serious sellers are in front of the trend. De-leveraging is a slow grinding process. Since no one knows how long or how far it may go, chasing it down could prove to be a long discouraging ride.
Market number break down for the last 90 days "Mesquite Market Quarterly", due out mid April 2010. Sign up to receive this free market report on the front page.
Register To Receive Mesquite Market Quarterly
(Sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date.)
Knowledge of the current market will be your key to success. Mistakes may prove very costly. Information on the short sale, and REO properties may not be available through MLS, Clark County assessor records are your best and most accurate source for those property comparable prices, it is public information. Agents in many cases may not have knowledge of these sales.
Learn How to Buy Right! We offer "Mesquite Market Smart Buyer" seminars every Saturday morning. Contact Chris Miller at ERA Brokers Consolidated to reserve your seat.
If you would like average price per square foot for a certain neighborhood, we will be happy to provide you a detailed report. Receive a comparable property evaluation on your property free.
RECENT SALES HISTORY:
The past few years were amazing in real estate. The returns for investors were huge. Unprecedented rates of housing cost inflation, and demand. Mesquite enjoyed this explosive market at every level and everyone is thrilled....right? Well, yes and no, this new market presents challenges for both buyers and sellers. From the buyer's side, the words "Sticker Shock" and "affordable housing" have taken on a new and real meaning. For sellers, due to the illusion of stellar appreciation rates, which may prove to be nothing more than nasty inflation driven by the excessive money supply, the line from the 1987 movie Wall Street, "Greed is Good" comes to mind, and may prove to be a stumbling block for many hoping to cash in. Achieving a balance here will be the challenge. As it always does the Market will find its fair value. A word of caution, we have seen some extremes, both high and low, so do your homework.
The market is now paying a terrible price for the funny money, speculation, and greed.
Since we broke our crystal ball here at Mesquite Market.com, we will leave predicting the future to someone else. The following statistics are from the local multiple listing service. Sold and closed as well as new units listed each month for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and now 2009 and includes all single family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. New refers to new listing versus newly built and sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date. As 2009 unfolds you can refer to these, compare and draw your own conclusions.
2005 Statistics:
January sold 41 units, 50 units listed
February sold 38 units, 50 units listed
March sold 69 units, 61 units listed
April sold 66 units, 78 units listed
May sold 67 units, 59 units listed
June sold 71 units, 62 units listed
July sold 55 units, 92 units listed
August sold 71 units, 82 units listed
September sold 75 units, 84 units listed
October sold 51 units, 85 units listed
November sold 53 units, 101 units listed
December sold 37 units, 71 units listed
2006 Statistics:
January sold 38, 66 units listed
February sold 43, 83 units listed
March sold 59, 89 units listed
April sold 44, 77 units listed
May sold 43, 81 units listed
June sold 41, 77 units listed
July sold 37, 54 units listed
August sold 44, 90 units listed
September sold 40, 91 units listed
October sold 25, 128 units listed
November sold 37, 95 units listed
December sold 31, 49 units listed
2006 sales were down 23% from 2005.
2007 Statistics:
January sold 28, 88 units listed
February sold 31, 78 units listed
March sold 60, 83 units listed
April sold 56, 76 units listed
May sold 50, 94 units listed
June sold 41, 82 units listed
July sold 34, 59 units listed
August sold 26, 79 units listed
September sold 24, 84 units listed
October sold 20, 88 units listed
November sold 30, 75 units listed
December sold 16, 64 units listed
Sales Prices were down from 19% to 30%, December 2006 to December 2007.
2008 Statistics:
January sold 26, 101 units listed
February sold 12, 76 units listed
March sold 35, 184 units listed
April sold 33, 69 units listed
May sold 30, 63 units listed
June sold 24, 67 units listed
July sold 25, 76 units listed
August sold 14, 57 units listed
September sold 19, 64 units listed
October sold 21, 73 units listed
November sold 20, 105 units listed
December sold 18, 54 units listed
2009 Statistics:
January sold 14, 76 units listed
February sold 26, 55 units listed
March sold 25, 76 units listed
April sold 25, 117 units listed
May sold 28, 62 units listed
June sold 32, 69 units listed
July sold 25, 59 units listed
August sold 30, 69 units listed
September sold 36, 88 units listed
October sold 30, 62 units listed
November sold 36, 65 units listed
December sold 53, December closings averaged $89 per square foot, 50 units listed
For prices per square foot and specific neighborhood numbers contact us, we will be happy to break these numbers down further with you.
Is There A Bubble In Mesquite?
Before discussing the existence of a bubble, we need to define the term. We offer a few definitions: "If the reason the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be higher tomorrow - when 'fundamental' factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists."
Accordingly, the key features of a bubble are that the level of prices has been bid up beyond what is consistent with underlying fundamentals and that buyers of the asset do so with the expectation of future price increases. Think speculators!
Joseph Stiglitz (1990): "A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by rapid decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). ..."
We can define a bubble as activities that spring up on the back of loose monetary policy of the central bank. In other words, in the absence of monetary pumping these activities would not emerge. Since bubble activities are not self-funded, their emergence must come at the expense of various self-funded or productive activities. This means that less real funding is left for productive activities, which in turn undermines those activities. In short, monetary pumping gives rise to the misallocation of resources, which as a rule manifests itself through a relative increase in non-productive activities against productive activities. - Greenspan
The Oxford English dictionary defines it as "a gas-filled cavity in liquid or in solidified liquid." One might say it has form but no substance -- the outward appearance of something substantial, but once the outside is pierced it is revealed to be based on a false impression. In the case of home prices, the interpretation would be that current home prices or price increases will be revealed to have been based on a false impression and when the surface is pierced we will see a substantial fall in prices.
Being in a "housing bubble" essentially means that home prices have ballooned beyond what a region's income levels or outside demand can sustain in the long run. If it is not a bubble when the market price of an asset is completely out of whack with the fundamental value of the asset, what do you call it? Fundamental value being set by a reasonable expectation of what rate of return can be expected from a comparable investment or what would it cost to replace it. The fundamental value in the case of a home is how much it can rent for and what would it cost to replace it, or can demand alone create fundamental value. At this point, minus potential future appreciation from the equation, it is much cheaper to rent than buy.
As a result, many recent home-buyers are making higher mortgage payments for the type and size of home that others are leasing for much smaller monthly rents. Those sitting on variable rate mortgages will face even higher monthly payments. The current job market can not support the real estate prices, so the question for Mesquite is will retirees continue to invest in real estate without regard to rates of return on their money? Can we count on the outside demand to sustain value? As long as they are going to live in it and are willing to pay the price, then does rate of return or replacement cost have no bearing on fundamental value?
Does this market lead to the conclusion that it makes better economic sense to rent and invest the difference? Or will those willing to invest without regard to investment return continue to drive up prices, to the point appreciation offsets higher cost of owning? Sounds like market timing. More likely, this simply emphasizes the need to know the market and buy right. Today there exists an eighteen to twenty four month supply of property available on the market, based on September and October 2007 actual closed transactions and that supply keeps growing along with the number of new real estate agents. Smart buyers are Hiring Experienced Buyers Agents to represent them. Short of the continued outside demand, looking at the fundamentals, implicit rents, income, local job market, it is a bubble, but don't hold your breath.
The conclusion I come to, based on current demographic shifts, Mesquite has what those retiring boomers are looking for, but can they afford our prices? Not everyone can afford to live in Scottsdale or Palm Springs, but some demand remains and they still grow and that likely is a glimpse into the future of Mesquite. What we are seeing today is more like a bump in the road, a correction in pricing. Mesquite's bright future remains just that! CWM 4/20/06
Are You Ready For A SOLD Sign?
Most of what is going out of the active inventory is failed, canceled, expired, or withdrawn rather than sold and closed. These failed properties are still out there, many are vacant and still need to sell. Some are headed to foreclosure. Mesquite's foreclosure properties will be the competition in tomorrow's market. Motivated banks, pricing some, not all properties to sell. The number of failed listings year to date exceeds sold and closed listings nearly 5 to 1.
At the current market prices, for many sellers, a short sale or foreclosure may be the only option, call me to discuss your options, Chris 435-862-5951
Residential Building Permits, 378 issued by the City of Mesquite during 2008. Sun City Mesquite pulled a majority of these building permits, adding pressure to the supply side. 2009 The City of Mesquite has issued 105 new residential building permits, including Sun City.
"Tuned In" sellers who still have equity are getting the news and adjusting to this new market and some are selling. Staying in front of the current trend is very challenging for most sellers. Most sellers continue to "Chase the Market down". "BUYER BEWARE" IS REAL, GET AN APPRAISAL!
Anyone serious about selling a home today needs to understand the market and the buyers mindset. As prices trend down, buyer's are watching and waiting. While sellers look back at last years prices, buyers are looking forward, reading the news and looking for a better value. Serious sellers are in front of the trend. De-leveraging is a slow grinding process. Since no one knows how long or how far it may go, chasing it down could prove to be a long discouraging ride.
Market number break down for the last 90 days "Mesquite Market Quarterly", due out mid April 2010. Sign up to receive this free market report on the front page.
Register To Receive Mesquite Market Quarterly
Register To Receive Mesquite Market Quarterly
(Sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date.)
Knowledge of the current market will be your key to success. Mistakes may prove very costly. Information on the short sale, and REO properties may not be available through MLS, Clark County assessor records are your best and most accurate source for those property comparable prices, it is public information. Agents in many cases may not have knowledge of these sales.
Learn How to Buy Right! We offer "Mesquite Market Smart Buyer" seminars every Saturday morning. Contact Chris Miller at ERA Brokers Consolidated to reserve your seat.
If you would like average price per square foot for a certain neighborhood, we will be happy to provide you a detailed report. Receive a comparable property evaluation on your property free.
RECENT SALES HISTORY:
The past few years were amazing in real estate. The returns for investors were huge. Unprecedented rates of housing cost inflation, and demand. Mesquite enjoyed this explosive market at every level and everyone is thrilled....right? Well, yes and no, this new market presents challenges for both buyers and sellers. From the buyer's side, the words "Sticker Shock" and "affordable housing" have taken on a new and real meaning. For sellers, due to the illusion of stellar appreciation rates, which may prove to be nothing more than nasty inflation driven by the excessive money supply, the line from the 1987 movie Wall Street, "Greed is Good" comes to mind, and may prove to be a stumbling block for many hoping to cash in. Achieving a balance here will be the challenge. As it always does the Market will find its fair value. A word of caution, we have seen some extremes, both high and low, so do your homework.
The market is now paying a terrible price for the funny money, speculation, and greed.
Since we broke our crystal ball here at Mesquite Market.com, we will leave predicting the future to someone else. The following statistics are from the local multiple listing service. Sold and closed as well as new units listed each month for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and now 2009 and includes all single family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. New refers to new listing versus newly built and sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date. As 2009 unfolds you can refer to these, compare and draw your own conclusions.
2005 Statistics:
January sold 41 units, 50 units listed
February sold 38 units, 50 units listed
March sold 69 units, 61 units listed
April sold 66 units, 78 units listed
May sold 67 units, 59 units listed
June sold 71 units, 62 units listed
July sold 55 units, 92 units listed
August sold 71 units, 82 units listed
September sold 75 units, 84 units listed
October sold 51 units, 85 units listed
November sold 53 units, 101 units listed
December sold 37 units, 71 units listed
2006 Statistics:
January sold 38, 66 units listed
February sold 43, 83 units listed
March sold 59, 89 units listed
April sold 44, 77 units listed
May sold 43, 81 units listed
June sold 41, 77 units listed
July sold 37, 54 units listed
August sold 44, 90 units listed
September sold 40, 91 units listed
October sold 25, 128 units listed
November sold 37, 95 units listed
December sold 31, 49 units listed
2006 sales were down 23% from 2005.
2007 Statistics:
January sold 28, 88 units listed
February sold 31, 78 units listed
March sold 60, 83 units listed
April sold 56, 76 units listed
May sold 50, 94 units listed
June sold 41, 82 units listed
July sold 34, 59 units listed
August sold 26, 79 units listed
September sold 24, 84 units listed
October sold 20, 88 units listed
November sold 30, 75 units listed
December sold 16, 64 units listed
Sales Prices were down from 19% to 30%, December 2006 to December 2007.
2008 Statistics:
January sold 26, 101 units listed
February sold 12, 76 units listed
March sold 35, 184 units listed
April sold 33, 69 units listed
May sold 30, 63 units listed
June sold 24, 67 units listed
July sold 25, 76 units listed
August sold 14, 57 units listed
September sold 19, 64 units listed
October sold 21, 73 units listed
November sold 20, 105 units listed
December sold 18, 54 units listed
2009 Statistics:
January sold 14, 76 units listed
February sold 26, 55 units listed
March sold 25, 76 units listed
April sold 25, 117 units listed
May sold 28, 62 units listed
June sold 32, 69 units listed
July sold 25, 59 units listed
August sold 30, 69 units listed
September sold 36, 88 units listed
October sold 30, 62 units listed
November sold 36, 65 units listed
December sold 53, December closings averaged $89 per square foot, 50 units listed
For prices per square foot and specific neighborhood numbers contact us, we will be happy to break these numbers down further with you.
Is There A Bubble In Mesquite?
Before discussing the existence of a bubble, we need to define the term. We offer a few definitions: "If the reason the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be higher tomorrow - when 'fundamental' factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists."
Accordingly, the key features of a bubble are that the level of prices has been bid up beyond what is consistent with underlying fundamentals and that buyers of the asset do so with the expectation of future price increases. Think speculators!
Joseph Stiglitz (1990): "A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by rapid decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). ..."
We can define a bubble as activities that spring up on the back of loose monetary policy of the central bank. In other words, in the absence of monetary pumping these activities would not emerge. Since bubble activities are not self-funded, their emergence must come at the expense of various self-funded or productive activities. This means that less real funding is left for productive activities, which in turn undermines those activities. In short, monetary pumping gives rise to the misallocation of resources, which as a rule manifests itself through a relative increase in non-productive activities against productive activities. - Greenspan
The Oxford English dictionary defines it as "a gas-filled cavity in liquid or in solidified liquid." One might say it has form but no substance -- the outward appearance of something substantial, but once the outside is pierced it is revealed to be based on a false impression. In the case of home prices, the interpretation would be that current home prices or price increases will be revealed to have been based on a false impression and when the surface is pierced we will see a substantial fall in prices.
Being in a "housing bubble" essentially means that home prices have ballooned beyond what a region's income levels or outside demand can sustain in the long run. If it is not a bubble when the market price of an asset is completely out of whack with the fundamental value of the asset, what do you call it? Fundamental value being set by a reasonable expectation of what rate of return can be expected from a comparable investment or what would it cost to replace it. The fundamental value in the case of a home is how much it can rent for and what would it cost to replace it, or can demand alone create fundamental value. At this point, minus potential future appreciation from the equation, it is much cheaper to rent than buy.
As a result, many recent home-buyers are making higher mortgage payments for the type and size of home that others are leasing for much smaller monthly rents. Those sitting on variable rate mortgages will face even higher monthly payments. The current job market can not support the real estate prices, so the question for Mesquite is will retirees continue to invest in real estate without regard to rates of return on their money? Can we count on the outside demand to sustain value? As long as they are going to live in it and are willing to pay the price, then does rate of return or replacement cost have no bearing on fundamental value?
Does this market lead to the conclusion that it makes better economic sense to rent and invest the difference? Or will those willing to invest without regard to investment return continue to drive up prices, to the point appreciation offsets higher cost of owning? Sounds like market timing. More likely, this simply emphasizes the need to know the market and buy right. Today there exists an eighteen to twenty four month supply of property available on the market, based on September and October 2007 actual closed transactions and that supply keeps growing along with the number of new real estate agents. Smart buyers are Hiring Experienced Buyers Agents to represent them. Short of the continued outside demand, looking at the fundamentals, implicit rents, income, local job market, it is a bubble, but don't hold your breath.
The conclusion I come to, based on current demographic shifts, Mesquite has what those retiring boomers are looking for, but can they afford our prices? Not everyone can afford to live in Scottsdale or Palm Springs, but some demand remains and they still grow and that likely is a glimpse into the future of Mesquite. What we are seeing today is more like a bump in the road, a correction in pricing. Mesquite's bright future remains just that! CWM 4/20/06
Are You Ready For A SOLD Sign?
(Sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date.)
Knowledge of the current market will be your key to success. Mistakes may prove very costly. Information on the short sale, and REO properties may not be available through MLS, Clark County assessor records are your best and most accurate source for those property comparable prices, it is public information. Agents in many cases may not have knowledge of these sales.
Learn How to Buy Right! We offer "Mesquite Market Smart Buyer" seminars every Saturday morning. Contact Chris Miller at ERA Brokers Consolidated to reserve your seat.
If you would like average price per square foot for a certain neighborhood, we will be happy to provide you a detailed report. Receive a comparable property evaluation on your property free.
RECENT SALES HISTORY:
The past few years were amazing in real estate. The returns for investors were huge. Unprecedented rates of housing cost inflation, and demand. Mesquite enjoyed this explosive market at every level and everyone is thrilled....right? Well, yes and no, this new market presents challenges for both buyers and sellers. From the buyer's side, the words "Sticker Shock" and "affordable housing" have taken on a new and real meaning. For sellers, due to the illusion of stellar appreciation rates, which may prove to be nothing more than nasty inflation driven by the excessive money supply, the line from the 1987 movie Wall Street, "Greed is Good" comes to mind, and may prove to be a stumbling block for many hoping to cash in. Achieving a balance here will be the challenge. As it always does the Market will find its fair value. A word of caution, we have seen some extremes, both high and low, so do your homework.
The market is now paying a terrible price for the funny money, speculation, and greed.
Since we broke our crystal ball here at Mesquite Market.com, we will leave predicting the future to someone else. The following statistics are from the local multiple listing service. Sold and closed as well as new units listed each month for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and now 2009 and includes all single family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. New refers to new listing versus newly built and sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date. As 2009 unfolds you can refer to these, compare and draw your own conclusions.
2005 Statistics:
January sold 41 units, 50 units listed
February sold 38 units, 50 units listed
March sold 69 units, 61 units listed
April sold 66 units, 78 units listed
May sold 67 units, 59 units listed
June sold 71 units, 62 units listed
July sold 55 units, 92 units listed
August sold 71 units, 82 units listed
September sold 75 units, 84 units listed
October sold 51 units, 85 units listed
November sold 53 units, 101 units listed
December sold 37 units, 71 units listed
2006 Statistics:
January sold 38, 66 units listed
February sold 43, 83 units listed
March sold 59, 89 units listed
April sold 44, 77 units listed
May sold 43, 81 units listed
June sold 41, 77 units listed
July sold 37, 54 units listed
August sold 44, 90 units listed
September sold 40, 91 units listed
October sold 25, 128 units listed
November sold 37, 95 units listed
December sold 31, 49 units listed
2006 sales were down 23% from 2005.
2007 Statistics:
January sold 28, 88 units listed
February sold 31, 78 units listed
March sold 60, 83 units listed
April sold 56, 76 units listed
May sold 50, 94 units listed
June sold 41, 82 units listed
July sold 34, 59 units listed
August sold 26, 79 units listed
September sold 24, 84 units listed
October sold 20, 88 units listed
November sold 30, 75 units listed
December sold 16, 64 units listed
Sales Prices were down from 19% to 30%, December 2006 to December 2007.
2008 Statistics:
January sold 26, 101 units listed
February sold 12, 76 units listed
March sold 35, 184 units listed
April sold 33, 69 units listed
May sold 30, 63 units listed
June sold 24, 67 units listed
July sold 25, 76 units listed
August sold 14, 57 units listed
September sold 19, 64 units listed
October sold 21, 73 units listed
November sold 20, 105 units listed
December sold 18, 54 units listed
2009 Statistics:
January sold 14, 76 units listed
February sold 26, 55 units listed
March sold 25, 76 units listed
April sold 25, 117 units listed
May sold 28, 62 units listed
June sold 32, 69 units listed
July sold 25, 59 units listed
August sold 30, 69 units listed
September sold 36, 88 units listed
October sold 30, 62 units listed
November sold 36, 65 units listed
December sold 53, December closings averaged $89 per square foot, 50 units listed
For prices per square foot and specific neighborhood numbers contact us, we will be happy to break these numbers down further with you.
Is There A Bubble In Mesquite?
Before discussing the existence of a bubble, we need to define the term. We offer a few definitions: "If the reason the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be higher tomorrow - when 'fundamental' factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists."
Accordingly, the key features of a bubble are that the level of prices has been bid up beyond what is consistent with underlying fundamentals and that buyers of the asset do so with the expectation of future price increases. Think speculators!
Joseph Stiglitz (1990): "A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by rapid decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). ..."
We can define a bubble as activities that spring up on the back of loose monetary policy of the central bank. In other words, in the absence of monetary pumping these activities would not emerge. Since bubble activities are not self-funded, their emergence must come at the expense of various self-funded or productive activities. This means that less real funding is left for productive activities, which in turn undermines those activities. In short, monetary pumping gives rise to the misallocation of resources, which as a rule manifests itself through a relative increase in non-productive activities against productive activities. - Greenspan
The Oxford English dictionary defines it as "a gas-filled cavity in liquid or in solidified liquid." One might say it has form but no substance -- the outward appearance of something substantial, but once the outside is pierced it is revealed to be based on a false impression. In the case of home prices, the interpretation would be that current home prices or price increases will be revealed to have been based on a false impression and when the surface is pierced we will see a substantial fall in prices.
Being in a "housing bubble" essentially means that home prices have ballooned beyond what a region's income levels or outside demand can sustain in the long run. If it is not a bubble when the market price of an asset is completely out of whack with the fundamental value of the asset, what do you call it? Fundamental value being set by a reasonable expectation of what rate of return can be expected from a comparable investment or what would it cost to replace it. The fundamental value in the case of a home is how much it can rent for and what would it cost to replace it, or can demand alone create fundamental value. At this point, minus potential future appreciation from the equation, it is much cheaper to rent than buy.
As a result, many recent home-buyers are making higher mortgage payments for the type and size of home that others are leasing for much smaller monthly rents. Those sitting on variable rate mortgages will face even higher monthly payments. The current job market can not support the real estate prices, so the question for Mesquite is will retirees continue to invest in real estate without regard to rates of return on their money? Can we count on the outside demand to sustain value? As long as they are going to live in it and are willing to pay the price, then does rate of return or replacement cost have no bearing on fundamental value?
Does this market lead to the conclusion that it makes better economic sense to rent and invest the difference? Or will those willing to invest without regard to investment return continue to drive up prices, to the point appreciation offsets higher cost of owning? Sounds like market timing. More likely, this simply emphasizes the need to know the market and buy right. Today there exists an eighteen to twenty four month supply of property available on the market, based on September and October 2007 actual closed transactions and that supply keeps growing along with the number of new real estate agents. Smart buyers are Hiring Experienced Buyers Agents to represent them. Short of the continued outside demand, looking at the fundamentals, implicit rents, income, local job market, it is a bubble, but don't hold your breath.
The conclusion I come to, based on current demographic shifts, Mesquite has what those retiring boomers are looking for, but can they afford our prices? Not everyone can afford to live in Scottsdale or Palm Springs, but some demand remains and they still grow and that likely is a glimpse into the future of Mesquite. What we are seeing today is more like a bump in the road, a correction in pricing. Mesquite's bright future remains just that! CWM 4/20/06
Are You Ready For A SOLD Sign?
Most of what is going out of the active inventory is failed, canceled, expired, or withdrawn rather than sold and closed. These failed properties are still out there, many are vacant and still need to sell. Some are headed to foreclosure. Mesquite's foreclosure properties will be the competition in tomorrow's market. Motivated banks, pricing some, not all properties to sell. The number of failed listings year to date exceeds sold and closed listings nearly 5 to 1.
At the current market prices, for many sellers, a short sale or foreclosure may be the only option, call me to discuss your options, Chris 435-862-5951
Residential Building Permits, 378 issued by the City of Mesquite during 2008. Sun City Mesquite pulled a majority of these building permits, adding pressure to the supply side. 2009 The City of Mesquite has issued 105 new residential building permits, including Sun City.
"Tuned In" sellers who still have equity are getting the news and adjusting to this new market and some are selling. Staying in front of the current trend is very challenging for most sellers. Most sellers continue to "Chase the Market down". "BUYER BEWARE" IS REAL, GET AN APPRAISAL!
Anyone serious about selling a home today needs to understand the market and the buyers mindset. As prices trend down, buyer's are watching and waiting. While sellers look back at last years prices, buyers are looking forward, reading the news and looking for a better value. Serious sellers are in front of the trend. De-leveraging is a slow grinding process. Since no one knows how long or how far it may go, chasing it down could prove to be a long discouraging ride.
Market number break down for the last 90 days "Mesquite Market Quarterly", due out mid April 2010. Sign up to receive this free market report on the front page.
Register To Receive Mesquite Market Quarterly
(Sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date.)
Knowledge of the current market will be your key to success. Mistakes may prove very costly. Information on the short sale, and REO properties may not be available through MLS, Clark County assessor records are your best and most accurate source for those property comparable prices, it is public information. Agents in many cases may not have knowledge of these sales.
Learn How to Buy Right! We offer "Mesquite Market Smart Buyer" seminars every Saturday morning. Contact Chris Miller at ERA Brokers Consolidated to reserve your seat.
If you would like average price per square foot for a certain neighborhood, we will be happy to provide you a detailed report. Receive a comparable property evaluation on your property free.
RECENT SALES HISTORY:
The past few years were amazing in real estate. The returns for investors were huge. Unprecedented rates of housing cost inflation, and demand. Mesquite enjoyed this explosive market at every level and everyone is thrilled....right? Well, yes and no, this new market presents challenges for both buyers and sellers. From the buyer's side, the words "Sticker Shock" and "affordable housing" have taken on a new and real meaning. For sellers, due to the illusion of stellar appreciation rates, which may prove to be nothing more than nasty inflation driven by the excessive money supply, the line from the 1987 movie Wall Street, "Greed is Good" comes to mind, and may prove to be a stumbling block for many hoping to cash in. Achieving a balance here will be the challenge. As it always does the Market will find its fair value. A word of caution, we have seen some extremes, both high and low, so do your homework.
The market is now paying a terrible price for the funny money, speculation, and greed.
Since we broke our crystal ball here at Mesquite Market.com, we will leave predicting the future to someone else. The following statistics are from the local multiple listing service. Sold and closed as well as new units listed each month for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and now 2009 and includes all single family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. New refers to new listing versus newly built and sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date. As 2009 unfolds you can refer to these, compare and draw your own conclusions.
2005 Statistics:
January sold 41 units, 50 units listed
February sold 38 units, 50 units listed
March sold 69 units, 61 units listed
April sold 66 units, 78 units listed
May sold 67 units, 59 units listed
June sold 71 units, 62 units listed
July sold 55 units, 92 units listed
August sold 71 units, 82 units listed
September sold 75 units, 84 units listed
October sold 51 units, 85 units listed
November sold 53 units, 101 units listed
December sold 37 units, 71 units listed
2006 Statistics:
January sold 38, 66 units listed
February sold 43, 83 units listed
March sold 59, 89 units listed
April sold 44, 77 units listed
May sold 43, 81 units listed
June sold 41, 77 units listed
July sold 37, 54 units listed
August sold 44, 90 units listed
September sold 40, 91 units listed
October sold 25, 128 units listed
November sold 37, 95 units listed
December sold 31, 49 units listed
2006 sales were down 23% from 2005.
2007 Statistics:
January sold 28, 88 units listed
February sold 31, 78 units listed
March sold 60, 83 units listed
April sold 56, 76 units listed
May sold 50, 94 units listed
June sold 41, 82 units listed
July sold 34, 59 units listed
August sold 26, 79 units listed
September sold 24, 84 units listed
October sold 20, 88 units listed
November sold 30, 75 units listed
December sold 16, 64 units listed
Sales Prices were down from 19% to 30%, December 2006 to December 2007.
2008 Statistics:
January sold 26, 101 units listed
February sold 12, 76 units listed
March sold 35, 184 units listed
April sold 33, 69 units listed
May sold 30, 63 units listed
June sold 24, 67 units listed
July sold 25, 76 units listed
August sold 14, 57 units listed
September sold 19, 64 units listed
October sold 21, 73 units listed
November sold 20, 105 units listed
December sold 18, 54 units listed
2009 Statistics:
January sold 14, 76 units listed
February sold 26, 55 units listed
March sold 25, 76 units listed
April sold 25, 117 units listed
May sold 28, 62 units listed
June sold 32, 69 units listed
July sold 25, 59 units listed
August sold 30, 69 units listed
September sold 36, 88 units listed
October sold 30, 62 units listed
November sold 36, 65 units listed
December sold 53, December closings averaged $89 per square foot, 50 units listed
For prices per square foot and specific neighborhood numbers contact us, we will be happy to break these numbers down further with you.
Is There A Bubble In Mesquite?
Before discussing the existence of a bubble, we need to define the term. We offer a few definitions: "If the reason the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be higher tomorrow - when 'fundamental' factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists."
Accordingly, the key features of a bubble are that the level of prices has been bid up beyond what is consistent with underlying fundamentals and that buyers of the asset do so with the expectation of future price increases. Think speculators!
Joseph Stiglitz (1990): "A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by rapid decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). ..."
We can define a bubble as activities that spring up on the back of loose monetary policy of the central bank. In other words, in the absence of monetary pumping these activities would not emerge. Since bubble activities are not self-funded, their emergence must come at the expense of various self-funded or productive activities. This means that less real funding is left for productive activities, which in turn undermines those activities. In short, monetary pumping gives rise to the misallocation of resources, which as a rule manifests itself through a relative increase in non-productive activities against productive activities. - Greenspan
The Oxford English dictionary defines it as "a gas-filled cavity in liquid or in solidified liquid." One might say it has form but no substance -- the outward appearance of something substantial, but once the outside is pierced it is revealed to be based on a false impression. In the case of home prices, the interpretation would be that current home prices or price increases will be revealed to have been based on a false impression and when the surface is pierced we will see a substantial fall in prices.
Being in a "housing bubble" essentially means that home prices have ballooned beyond what a region's income levels or outside demand can sustain in the long run. If it is not a bubble when the market price of an asset is completely out of whack with the fundamental value of the asset, what do you call it? Fundamental value being set by a reasonable expectation of what rate of return can be expected from a comparable investment or what would it cost to replace it. The fundamental value in the case of a home is how much it can rent for and what would it cost to replace it, or can demand alone create fundamental value. At this point, minus potential future appreciation from the equation, it is much cheaper to rent than buy.
As a result, many recent home-buyers are making higher mortgage payments for the type and size of home that others are leasing for much smaller monthly rents. Those sitting on variable rate mortgages will face even higher monthly payments. The current job market can not support the real estate prices, so the question for Mesquite is will retirees continue to invest in real estate without regard to rates of return on their money? Can we count on the outside demand to sustain value? As long as they are going to live in it and are willing to pay the price, then does rate of return or replacement cost have no bearing on fundamental value?
Does this market lead to the conclusion that it makes better economic sense to rent and invest the difference? Or will those willing to invest without regard to investment return continue to drive up prices, to the point appreciation offsets higher cost of owning? Sounds like market timing. More likely, this simply emphasizes the need to know the market and buy right. Today there exists an eighteen to twenty four month supply of property available on the market, based on September and October 2007 actual closed transactions and that supply keeps growing along with the number of new real estate agents. Smart buyers are Hiring Experienced Buyers Agents to represent them. Short of the continued outside demand, looking at the fundamentals, implicit rents, income, local job market, it is a bubble, but don't hold your breath.
The conclusion I come to, based on current demographic shifts, Mesquite has what those retiring boomers are looking for, but can they afford our prices? Not everyone can afford to live in Scottsdale or Palm Springs, but some demand remains and they still grow and that likely is a glimpse into the future of Mesquite. What we are seeing today is more like a bump in the road, a correction in pricing. Mesquite's bright future remains just that! CWM 4/20/06
Are You Ready For A SOLD Sign?
Most of what is going out of the active inventory is failed, canceled, expired, or withdrawn rather than sold and closed. These failed properties are still out there, many are vacant and still need to sell. Some are headed to foreclosure. Mesquite's foreclosure properties will be the competition in tomorrow's market. Motivated banks, pricing some, not all properties to sell. The number of failed listings year to date exceeds sold and closed listings nearly 5 to 1.
At the current market prices, for many sellers, a short sale or foreclosure may be the only option, call me to discuss your options, Chris 435-862-5951
Residential Building Permits, 378 issued by the City of Mesquite during 2008. Sun City Mesquite pulled a majority of these building permits, adding pressure to the supply side. 2009 The City of Mesquite has issued 105 new residential building permits, including Sun City.
"Tuned In" sellers who still have equity are getting the news and adjusting to this new market and some are selling. Staying in front of the current trend is very challenging for most sellers. Most sellers continue to "Chase the Market down". "BUYER BEWARE" IS REAL, GET AN APPRAISAL!
Anyone serious about selling a home today needs to understand the market and the buyers mindset. As prices trend down, buyer's are watching and waiting. While sellers look back at last years prices, buyers are looking forward, reading the news and looking for a better value. Serious sellers are in front of the trend. De-leveraging is a slow grinding process. Since no one knows how long or how far it may go, chasing it down could prove to be a long discouraging ride.
Market number break down for the last 90 days "Mesquite Market Quarterly", due out mid April 2010. Sign up to receive this free market report on the front page.
Register To Receive Mesquite Market Quarterly
(Sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date.)
Knowledge of the current market will be your key to success. Mistakes may prove very costly. Information on the short sale, and REO properties may not be available through MLS, Clark County assessor records are your best and most accurate source for those property comparable prices, it is public information. Agents in many cases may not have knowledge of these sales.
Learn How to Buy Right! We offer "Mesquite Market Smart Buyer" seminars every Saturday morning. Contact Chris Miller at ERA Brokers Consolidated to reserve your seat.
If you would like average price per square foot for a certain neighborhood, we will be happy to provide you a detailed report. Receive a comparable property evaluation on your property free.
RECENT SALES HISTORY:
The past few years were amazing in real estate. The returns for investors were huge. Unprecedented rates of housing cost inflation, and demand. Mesquite enjoyed this explosive market at every level and everyone is thrilled....right? Well, yes and no, this new market presents challenges for both buyers and sellers. From the buyer's side, the words "Sticker Shock" and "affordable housing" have taken on a new and real meaning. For sellers, due to the illusion of stellar appreciation rates, which may prove to be nothing more than nasty inflation driven by the excessive money supply, the line from the 1987 movie Wall Street, "Greed is Good" comes to mind, and may prove to be a stumbling block for many hoping to cash in. Achieving a balance here will be the challenge. As it always does the Market will find its fair value. A word of caution, we have seen some extremes, both high and low, so do your homework.
The market is now paying a terrible price for the funny money, speculation, and greed.
Since we broke our crystal ball here at Mesquite Market.com, we will leave predicting the future to someone else. The following statistics are from the local multiple listing service. Sold and closed as well as new units listed each month for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and now 2009 and includes all single family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. New refers to new listing versus newly built and sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date. As 2009 unfolds you can refer to these, compare and draw your own conclusions.
2005 Statistics:
January sold 41 units, 50 units listed
February sold 38 units, 50 units listed
March sold 69 units, 61 units listed
April sold 66 units, 78 units listed
May sold 67 units, 59 units listed
June sold 71 units, 62 units listed
July sold 55 units, 92 units listed
August sold 71 units, 82 units listed
September sold 75 units, 84 units listed
October sold 51 units, 85 units listed
November sold 53 units, 101 units listed
December sold 37 units, 71 units listed
2006 Statistics:
January sold 38, 66 units listed
February sold 43, 83 units listed
March sold 59, 89 units listed
April sold 44, 77 units listed
May sold 43, 81 units listed
June sold 41, 77 units listed
July sold 37, 54 units listed
August sold 44, 90 units listed
September sold 40, 91 units listed
October sold 25, 128 units listed
November sold 37, 95 units listed
December sold 31, 49 units listed
2006 sales were down 23% from 2005.
2007 Statistics:
January sold 28, 88 units listed
February sold 31, 78 units listed
March sold 60, 83 units listed
April sold 56, 76 units listed
May sold 50, 94 units listed
June sold 41, 82 units listed
July sold 34, 59 units listed
August sold 26, 79 units listed
September sold 24, 84 units listed
October sold 20, 88 units listed
November sold 30, 75 units listed
December sold 16, 64 units listed
Sales Prices were down from 19% to 30%, December 2006 to December 2007.
2008 Statistics:
January sold 26, 101 units listed
February sold 12, 76 units listed
March sold 35, 184 units listed
April sold 33, 69 units listed
May sold 30, 63 units listed
June sold 24, 67 units listed
July sold 25, 76 units listed
August sold 14, 57 units listed
September sold 19, 64 units listed
October sold 21, 73 units listed
November sold 20, 105 units listed
December sold 18, 54 units listed
2009 Statistics:
January sold 14, 76 units listed
February sold 26, 55 units listed
March sold 25, 76 units listed
April sold 25, 117 units listed
May sold 28, 62 units listed
June sold 32, 69 units listed
July sold 25, 59 units listed
August sold 30, 69 units listed
September sold 36, 88 units listed
October sold 30, 62 units listed
November sold 36, 65 units listed
December sold 53, December closings averaged $89 per square foot, 50 units listed
For prices per square foot and specific neighborhood numbers contact us, we will be happy to break these numbers down further with you.
Is There A Bubble In Mesquite?
Before discussing the existence of a bubble, we need to define the term. We offer a few definitions: "If the reason the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be higher tomorrow - when 'fundamental' factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists."
Accordingly, the key features of a bubble are that the level of prices has been bid up beyond what is consistent with underlying fundamentals and that buyers of the asset do so with the expectation of future price increases. Think speculators!
Joseph Stiglitz (1990): "A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by rapid decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). ..."
We can define a bubble as activities that spring up on the back of loose monetary policy of the central bank. In other words, in the absence of monetary pumping these activities would not emerge. Since bubble activities are not self-funded, their emergence must come at the expense of various self-funded or productive activities. This means that less real funding is left for productive activities, which in turn undermines those activities. In short, monetary pumping gives rise to the misallocation of resources, which as a rule manifests itself through a relative increase in non-productive activities against productive activities. - Greenspan
The Oxford English dictionary defines it as "a gas-filled cavity in liquid or in solidified liquid." One might say it has form but no substance -- the outward appearance of something substantial, but once the outside is pierced it is revealed to be based on a false impression. In the case of home prices, the interpretation would be that current home prices or price increases will be revealed to have been based on a false impression and when the surface is pierced we will see a substantial fall in prices.
Being in a "housing bubble" essentially means that home prices have ballooned beyond what a region's income levels or outside demand can sustain in the long run. If it is not a bubble when the market price of an asset is completely out of whack with the fundamental value of the asset, what do you call it? Fundamental value being set by a reasonable expectation of what rate of return can be expected from a comparable investment or what would it cost to replace it. The fundamental value in the case of a home is how much it can rent for and what would it cost to replace it, or can demand alone create fundamental value. At this point, minus potential future appreciation from the equation, it is much cheaper to rent than buy.
As a result, many recent home-buyers are making higher mortgage payments for the type and size of home that others are leasing for much smaller monthly rents. Those sitting on variable rate mortgages will face even higher monthly payments. The current job market can not support the real estate prices, so the question for Mesquite is will retirees continue to invest in real estate without regard to rates of return on their money? Can we count on the outside demand to sustain value? As long as they are going to live in it and are willing to pay the price, then does rate of return or replacement cost have no bearing on fundamental value?
Does this market lead to the conclusion that it makes better economic sense to rent and invest the difference? Or will those willing to invest without regard to investment return continue to drive up prices, to the point appreciation offsets higher cost of owning? Sounds like market timing. More likely, this simply emphasizes the need to know the market and buy right. Today there exists an eighteen to twenty four month supply of property available on the market, based on September and October 2007 actual closed transactions and that supply keeps growing along with the number of new real estate agents. Smart buyers are Hiring Experienced Buyers Agents to represent them. Short of the continued outside demand, looking at the fundamentals, implicit rents, income, local job market, it is a bubble, but don't hold your breath.
The conclusion I come to, based on current demographic shifts, Mesquite has what those retiring boomers are looking for, but can they afford our prices? Not everyone can afford to live in Scottsdale or Palm Springs, but some demand remains and they still grow and that likely is a glimpse into the future of Mesquite. What we are seeing today is more like a bump in the road, a correction in pricing. Mesquite's bright future remains just that! CWM 4/20/06
Are You Ready For A SOLD Sign?
Most of what is going out of the active inventory is failed, canceled, expired, or withdrawn rather than sold and closed. These failed properties are still out there, many are vacant and still need to sell. Some are headed to foreclosure. Mesquite's foreclosure properties will be the competition in tomorrow's market. Motivated banks, pricing some, not all properties to sell. The number of failed listings year to date exceeds sold and closed listings nearly 5 to 1.
At the current market prices, for many sellers, a short sale or foreclosure may be the only option, call me to discuss your options, Chris 435-862-5951
Residential Building Permits, 378 issued by the City of Mesquite during 2008. Sun City Mesquite pulled a majority of these building permits, adding pressure to the supply side. 2009 The City of Mesquite has issued 105 new residential building permits, including Sun City.
"Tuned In" sellers who still have equity are getting the news and adjusting to this new market and some are selling. Staying in front of the current trend is very challenging for most sellers. Most sellers continue to "Chase the Market down". "BUYER BEWARE" IS REAL, GET AN APPRAISAL!
Anyone serious about selling a home today needs to understand the market and the buyers mindset. As prices trend down, buyer's are watching and waiting. While sellers look back at last years prices, buyers are looking forward, reading the news and looking for a better value. Serious sellers are in front of the trend. De-leveraging is a slow grinding process. Since no one knows how long or how far it may go, chasing it down could prove to be a long discouraging ride.
Market number break down for the last 90 days "Mesquite Market Quarterly", due out mid April 2010. Sign up to receive this free market report on the front page.
Most of what is going out of the active inventory is failed, canceled, expired, or withdrawn rather than sold and closed. These failed properties are still out there, many are vacant and still need to sell. Some are headed to foreclosure. Mesquite's foreclosure properties will be the competition in tomorrow's market. Motivated banks, pricing some, not all properties to sell. The number of failed listings year to date exceeds sold and closed listings nearly 5 to 1.
At the current market prices, for many sellers, a short sale or foreclosure may be the only option, call me to discuss your options, Chris 435-862-5951
Residential Building Permits, 378 issued by the City of Mesquite during 2008. Sun City Mesquite pulled a majority of these building permits, adding pressure to the supply side. 2009 The City of Mesquite has issued 105 new residential building permits, including Sun City.
"Tuned In" sellers who still have equity are getting the news and adjusting to this new market and some are selling. Staying in front of the current trend is very challenging for most sellers. Most sellers continue to "Chase the Market down". "BUYER BEWARE" IS REAL, GET AN APPRAISAL!
Anyone serious about selling a home today needs to understand the market and the buyers mindset. As prices trend down, buyer's are watching and waiting. While sellers look back at last years prices, buyers are looking forward, reading the news and looking for a better value. Serious sellers are in front of the trend. De-leveraging is a slow grinding process. Since no one knows how long or how far it may go, chasing it down could prove to be a long discouraging ride.
Market number break down for the last 90 days "Mesquite Market Quarterly", due out mid April 2010. Sign up to receive this free market report on the front page.
Register To Receive Mesquite Market Quarterly
(Sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date.)
Knowledge of the current market will be your key to success. Mistakes may prove very costly. Information on the short sale, and REO properties may not be available through MLS, Clark County assessor records are your best and most accurate source for those property comparable prices, it is public information. Agents in many cases may not have knowledge of these sales.
Learn How to Buy Right! We offer "Mesquite Market Smart Buyer" seminars every Saturday morning. Contact Chris Miller at ERA Brokers Consolidated to reserve your seat.
If you would like average price per square foot for a certain neighborhood, we will be happy to provide you a detailed report. Receive a comparable property evaluation on your property free.
RECENT SALES HISTORY:
The past few years were amazing in real estate. The returns for investors were huge. Unprecedented rates of housing cost inflation, and demand. Mesquite enjoyed this explosive market at every level and everyone is thrilled....right? Well, yes and no, this new market presents challenges for both buyers and sellers. From the buyer's side, the words "Sticker Shock" and "affordable housing" have taken on a new and real meaning. For sellers, due to the illusion of stellar appreciation rates, which may prove to be nothing more than nasty inflation driven by the excessive money supply, the line from the 1987 movie Wall Street, "Greed is Good" comes to mind, and may prove to be a stumbling block for many hoping to cash in. Achieving a balance here will be the challenge. As it always does the Market will find its fair value. A word of caution, we have seen some extremes, both high and low, so do your homework.
The market is now paying a terrible price for the funny money, speculation, and greed.
Since we broke our crystal ball here at Mesquite Market.com, we will leave predicting the future to someone else. The following statistics are from the local multiple listing service. Sold and closed as well as new units listed each month for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and now 2009 and includes all single family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. New refers to new listing versus newly built and sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date. As 2009 unfolds you can refer to these, compare and draw your own conclusions.
2005 Statistics:
January sold 41 units, 50 units listed
February sold 38 units, 50 units listed
March sold 69 units, 61 units listed
April sold 66 units, 78 units listed
May sold 67 units, 59 units listed
June sold 71 units, 62 units listed
July sold 55 units, 92 units listed
August sold 71 units, 82 units listed
September sold 75 units, 84 units listed
October sold 51 units, 85 units listed
November sold 53 units, 101 units listed
December sold 37 units, 71 units listed
2006 Statistics:
January sold 38, 66 units listed
February sold 43, 83 units listed
March sold 59, 89 units listed
April sold 44, 77 units listed
May sold 43, 81 units listed
June sold 41, 77 units listed
July sold 37, 54 units listed
August sold 44, 90 units listed
September sold 40, 91 units listed
October sold 25, 128 units listed
November sold 37, 95 units listed
December sold 31, 49 units listed
2006 sales were down 23% from 2005.
2007 Statistics:
January sold 28, 88 units listed
February sold 31, 78 units listed
March sold 60, 83 units listed
April sold 56, 76 units listed
May sold 50, 94 units listed
June sold 41, 82 units listed
July sold 34, 59 units listed
August sold 26, 79 units listed
September sold 24, 84 units listed
October sold 20, 88 units listed
November sold 30, 75 units listed
December sold 16, 64 units listed
Sales Prices were down from 19% to 30%, December 2006 to December 2007.
2008 Statistics:
January sold 26, 101 units listed
February sold 12, 76 units listed
March sold 35, 184 units listed
April sold 33, 69 units listed
May sold 30, 63 units listed
June sold 24, 67 units listed
July sold 25, 76 units listed
August sold 14, 57 units listed
September sold 19, 64 units listed
October sold 21, 73 units listed
November sold 20, 105 units listed
December sold 18, 54 units listed
2009 Statistics:
January sold 14, 76 units listed
February sold 26, 55 units listed
March sold 25, 76 units listed
April sold 25, 117 units listed
May sold 28, 62 units listed
June sold 32, 69 units listed
July sold 25, 59 units listed
August sold 30, 69 units listed
September sold 36, 88 units listed
October sold 30, 62 units listed
November sold 36, 65 units listed
December sold 53, December closings averaged $89 per square foot, 50 units listed
For prices per square foot and specific neighborhood numbers contact us, we will be happy to break these numbers down further with you.
Is There A Bubble In Mesquite?
Before discussing the existence of a bubble, we need to define the term. We offer a few definitions: "If the reason the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be higher tomorrow - when 'fundamental' factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists."
Accordingly, the key features of a bubble are that the level of prices has been bid up beyond what is consistent with underlying fundamentals and that buyers of the asset do so with the expectation of future price increases. Think speculators!
Joseph Stiglitz (1990): "A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by rapid decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). ..."
We can define a bubble as activities that spring up on the back of loose monetary policy of the central bank. In other words, in the absence of monetary pumping these activities would not emerge. Since bubble activities are not self-funded, their emergence must come at the expense of various self-funded or productive activities. This means that less real funding is left for productive activities, which in turn undermines those activities. In short, monetary pumping gives rise to the misallocation of resources, which as a rule manifests itself through a relative increase in non-productive activities against productive activities. - Greenspan
The Oxford English dictionary defines it as "a gas-filled cavity in liquid or in solidified liquid." One might say it has form but no substance -- the outward appearance of something substantial, but once the outside is pierced it is revealed to be based on a false impression. In the case of home prices, the interpretation would be that current home prices or price increases will be revealed to have been based on a false impression and when the surface is pierced we will see a substantial fall in prices.
Being in a "housing bubble" essentially means that home prices have ballooned beyond what a region's income levels or outside demand can sustain in the long run. If it is not a bubble when the market price of an asset is completely out of whack with the fundamental value of the asset, what do you call it? Fundamental value being set by a reasonable expectation of what rate of return can be expected from a comparable investment or what would it cost to replace it. The fundamental value in the case of a home is how much it can rent for and what would it cost to replace it, or can demand alone create fundamental value. At this point, minus potential future appreciation from the equation, it is much cheaper to rent than buy.
As a result, many recent home-buyers are making higher mortgage payments for the type and size of home that others are leasing for much smaller monthly rents. Those sitting on variable rate mortgages will face even higher monthly payments. The current job market can not support the real estate prices, so the question for Mesquite is will retirees continue to invest in real estate without regard to rates of return on their money? Can we count on the outside demand to sustain value? As long as they are going to live in it and are willing to pay the price, then does rate of return or replacement cost have no bearing on fundamental value?
Does this market lead to the conclusion that it makes better economic sense to rent and invest the difference? Or will those willing to invest without regard to investment return continue to drive up prices, to the point appreciation offsets higher cost of owning? Sounds like market timing. More likely, this simply emphasizes the need to know the market and buy right. Today there exists an eighteen to twenty four month supply of property available on the market, based on September and October 2007 actual closed transactions and that supply keeps growing along with the number of new real estate agents. Smart buyers are Hiring Experienced Buyers Agents to represent them. Short of the continued outside demand, looking at the fundamentals, implicit rents, income, local job market, it is a bubble, but don't hold your breath.
The conclusion I come to, based on current demographic shifts, Mesquite has what those retiring boomers are looking for, but can they afford our prices? Not everyone can afford to live in Scottsdale or Palm Springs, but some demand remains and they still grow and that likely is a glimpse into the future of Mesquite. What we are seeing today is more like a bump in the road, a correction in pricing. Mesquite's bright future remains just that! CWM 4/20/06
Are You Ready For A SOLD Sign?
Read This! Investment Outlook Bill Gross | August 2008
Anyone serious about selling a home today needs to understand the market and the buyers mindset. As prices trend down, buyer's are watching and waiting. While sellers look back at last years prices, buyers are looking forward, reading the news and looking for a better value. Serious sellers are in front of the trend. De-leveraging is a slow grinding process. Since no one knows how long or how far it may go, chasing it down could prove to be a long discouraging ride.
Market number break down for the last 90 days "Mesquite Market Quarterly", due out mid April 2010. Sign up to receive this free market report on the front page.
Most of what is going out of the active inventory is failed, canceled, expired, or withdrawn rather than sold and closed. These failed properties are still out there, many are vacant and still need to sell. Some are headed to foreclosure. Mesquite's foreclosure properties will be the competition in tomorrow's market. Motivated banks, pricing some, not all properties to sell. The number of failed listings year to date exceeds sold and closed listings nearly 5 to 1.
At the current market prices, for many sellers, a short sale or foreclosure may be the only option, call me to discuss your options, Chris 435-862-5951
Residential Building Permits, 378 issued by the City of Mesquite during 2008. Sun City Mesquite pulled a majority of these building permits, adding pressure to the supply side. 2009 The City of Mesquite has issued 105 new residential building permits, including Sun City.
"Tuned In" sellers who still have equity are getting the news and adjusting to this new market and some are selling. Staying in front of the current trend is very challenging for most sellers. Most sellers continue to "Chase the Market down". "BUYER BEWARE" IS REAL, GET AN APPRAISAL!
Anyone serious about selling a home today needs to understand the market and the buyers mindset. As prices trend down, buyer's are watching and waiting. While sellers look back at last years prices, buyers are looking forward, reading the news and looking for a better value. Serious sellers are in front of the trend. De-leveraging is a slow grinding process. Since no one knows how long or how far it may go, chasing it down could prove to be a long discouraging ride.
Register To Receive Mesquite Market Quarterly
Register To Receive Mesquite Market Quarterly
(Sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date.)
Knowledge of the current market will be your key to success. Mistakes may prove very costly. Information on the short sale, and REO properties may not be available through MLS, Clark County assessor records are your best and most accurate source for those property comparable prices, it is public information. Agents in many cases may not have knowledge of these sales.
Learn How to Buy Right! We offer "Mesquite Market Smart Buyer" seminars every Saturday morning. Contact Chris Miller at ERA Brokers Consolidated to reserve your seat.
If you would like average price per square foot for a certain neighborhood, we will be happy to provide you a detailed report. Receive a comparable property evaluation on your property free.
RECENT SALES HISTORY:
The past few years were amazing in real estate. The returns for investors were huge. Unprecedented rates of housing cost inflation, and demand. Mesquite enjoyed this explosive market at every level and everyone is thrilled....right? Well, yes and no, this new market presents challenges for both buyers and sellers. From the buyer's side, the words "Sticker Shock" and "affordable housing" have taken on a new and real meaning. For sellers, due to the illusion of stellar appreciation rates, which may prove to be nothing more than nasty inflation driven by the excessive money supply, the line from the 1987 movie Wall Street, "Greed is Good" comes to mind, and may prove to be a stumbling block for many hoping to cash in. Achieving a balance here will be the challenge. As it always does the Market will find its fair value. A word of caution, we have seen some extremes, both high and low, so do your homework.
The market is now paying a terrible price for the funny money, speculation, and greed.
Since we broke our crystal ball here at Mesquite Market.com, we will leave predicting the future to someone else. The following statistics are from the local multiple listing service. Sold and closed as well as new units listed each month for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and now 2009 and includes all single family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. New refers to new listing versus newly built and sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date. As 2009 unfolds you can refer to these, compare and draw your own conclusions.
2005 Statistics:
January sold 41 units, 50 units listed
February sold 38 units, 50 units listed
March sold 69 units, 61 units listed
April sold 66 units, 78 units listed
May sold 67 units, 59 units listed
June sold 71 units, 62 units listed
July sold 55 units, 92 units listed
August sold 71 units, 82 units listed
September sold 75 units, 84 units listed
October sold 51 units, 85 units listed
November sold 53 units, 101 units listed
December sold 37 units, 71 units listed
2006 Statistics:
January sold 38, 66 units listed
February sold 43, 83 units listed
March sold 59, 89 units listed
April sold 44, 77 units listed
May sold 43, 81 units listed
June sold 41, 77 units listed
July sold 37, 54 units listed
August sold 44, 90 units listed
September sold 40, 91 units listed
October sold 25, 128 units listed
November sold 37, 95 units listed
December sold 31, 49 units listed
2006 sales were down 23% from 2005.
2007 Statistics:
January sold 28, 88 units listed
February sold 31, 78 units listed
March sold 60, 83 units listed
April sold 56, 76 units listed
May sold 50, 94 units listed
June sold 41, 82 units listed
July sold 34, 59 units listed
August sold 26, 79 units listed
September sold 24, 84 units listed
October sold 20, 88 units listed
November sold 30, 75 units listed
December sold 16, 64 units listed
Sales Prices were down from 19% to 30%, December 2006 to December 2007.
2008 Statistics:
January sold 26, 101 units listed
February sold 12, 76 units listed
March sold 35, 184 units listed
April sold 33, 69 units listed
May sold 30, 63 units listed
June sold 24, 67 units listed
July sold 25, 76 units listed
August sold 14, 57 units listed
September sold 19, 64 units listed
October sold 21, 73 units listed
November sold 20, 105 units listed
December sold 18, 54 units listed
2009 Statistics:
January sold 14, 76 units listed
February sold 26, 55 units listed
March sold 25, 76 units listed
April sold 25, 117 units listed
May sold 28, 62 units listed
June sold 32, 69 units listed
July sold 25, 59 units listed
August sold 30, 69 units listed
September sold 36, 88 units listed
October sold 30, 62 units listed
November sold 36, 65 units listed
December sold 53, December closings averaged $89 per square foot, 50 units listed
For prices per square foot and specific neighborhood numbers contact us, we will be happy to break these numbers down further with you.
Is There A Bubble In Mesquite?
Before discussing the existence of a bubble, we need to define the term. We offer a few definitions: "If the reason the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be higher tomorrow - when 'fundamental' factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists."
Accordingly, the key features of a bubble are that the level of prices has been bid up beyond what is consistent with underlying fundamentals and that buyers of the asset do so with the expectation of future price increases. Think speculators!
Joseph Stiglitz (1990): "A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by rapid decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). ..."
We can define a bubble as activities that spring up on the back of loose monetary policy of the central bank. In other words, in the absence of monetary pumping these activities would not emerge. Since bubble activities are not self-funded, their emergence must come at the expense of various self-funded or productive activities. This means that less real funding is left for productive activities, which in turn undermines those activities. In short, monetary pumping gives rise to the misallocation of resources, which as a rule manifests itself through a relative increase in non-productive activities against productive activities. - Greenspan
The Oxford English dictionary defines it as "a gas-filled cavity in liquid or in solidified liquid." One might say it has form but no substance -- the outward appearance of something substantial, but once the outside is pierced it is revealed to be based on a false impression. In the case of home prices, the interpretation would be that current home prices or price increases will be revealed to have been based on a false impression and when the surface is pierced we will see a substantial fall in prices.
Being in a "housing bubble" essentially means that home prices have ballooned beyond what a region's income levels or outside demand can sustain in the long run. If it is not a bubble when the market price of an asset is completely out of whack with the fundamental value of the asset, what do you call it? Fundamental value being set by a reasonable expectation of what rate of return can be expected from a comparable investment or what would it cost to replace it. The fundamental value in the case of a home is how much it can rent for and what would it cost to replace it, or can demand alone create fundamental value. At this point, minus potential future appreciation from the equation, it is much cheaper to rent than buy.
As a result, many recent home-buyers are making higher mortgage payments for the type and size of home that others are leasing for much smaller monthly rents. Those sitting on variable rate mortgages will face even higher monthly payments. The current job market can not support the real estate prices, so the question for Mesquite is will retirees continue to invest in real estate without regard to rates of return on their money? Can we count on the outside demand to sustain value? As long as they are going to live in it and are willing to pay the price, then does rate of return or replacement cost have no bearing on fundamental value?
Does this market lead to the conclusion that it makes better economic sense to rent and invest the difference? Or will those willing to invest without regard to investment return continue to drive up prices, to the point appreciation offsets higher cost of owning? Sounds like market timing. More likely, this simply emphasizes the need to know the market and buy right. Today there exists an eighteen to twenty four month supply of property available on the market, based on September and October 2007 actual closed transactions and that supply keeps growing along with the number of new real estate agents. Smart buyers are Hiring Experienced Buyers Agents to represent them. Short of the continued outside demand, looking at the fundamentals, implicit rents, income, local job market, it is a bubble, but don't hold your breath.
The conclusion I come to, based on current demographic shifts, Mesquite has what those retiring boomers are looking for, but can they afford our prices? Not everyone can afford to live in Scottsdale or Palm Springs, but some demand remains and they still grow and that likely is a glimpse into the future of Mesquite. What we are seeing today is more like a bump in the road, a correction in pricing. Mesquite's bright future remains just that! CWM 4/20/06
Are You Ready For A SOLD Sign?
Register To Receive Mesquite Market Quarterly
(Sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date.)
Knowledge of the current market will be your key to success. Mistakes may prove very costly. Information on the short sale, and REO properties may not be available through MLS, Clark County assessor records are your best and most accurate source for those property comparable prices, it is public information. Agents in many cases may not have knowledge of these sales.
Learn How to Buy Right! We offer "Mesquite Market Smart Buyer" seminars every Saturday morning. Contact Chris Miller at ERA Brokers Consolidated to reserve your seat.
If you would like average price per square foot for a certain neighborhood, we will be happy to provide you a detailed report. Receive a comparable property evaluation on your property free.
RECENT SALES HISTORY:
The past few years were amazing in real estate. The returns for investors were huge. Unprecedented rates of housing cost inflation, and demand. Mesquite enjoyed this explosive market at every level and everyone is thrilled....right? Well, yes and no, this new market presents challenges for both buyers and sellers. From the buyer's side, the words "Sticker Shock" and "affordable housing" have taken on a new and real meaning. For sellers, due to the illusion of stellar appreciation rates, which may prove to be nothing more than nasty inflation driven by the excessive money supply, the line from the 1987 movie Wall Street, "Greed is Good" comes to mind, and may prove to be a stumbling block for many hoping to cash in. Achieving a balance here will be the challenge. As it always does the Market will find its fair value. A word of caution, we have seen some extremes, both high and low, so do your homework.
The market is now paying a terrible price for the funny money, speculation, and greed.
Since we broke our crystal ball here at Mesquite Market.com, we will leave predicting the future to someone else. The following statistics are from the local multiple listing service. Sold and closed as well as new units listed each month for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and now 2009 and includes all single family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. New refers to new listing versus newly built and sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date. As 2009 unfolds you can refer to these, compare and draw your own conclusions.
2005 Statistics:
2006 Statistics:
2006 sales were down 23% from 2005.
2007 Statistics:
Sales Prices were down from 19% to 30%, December 2006 to December 2007.
2008 Statistics:
For prices per square foot and specific neighborhood numbers contact us, we will be happy to break these numbers down further with you.
Is There A Bubble In Mesquite?
Before discussing the existence of a bubble, we need to define the term. We offer a few definitions: "If the reason the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be higher tomorrow - when 'fundamental' factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists."
Accordingly, the key features of a bubble are that the level of prices has been bid up beyond what is consistent with underlying fundamentals and that buyers of the asset do so with the expectation of future price increases. Think speculators!
Joseph Stiglitz (1990): "A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by rapid decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). ..."
We can define a bubble as activities that spring up on the back of loose monetary policy of the central bank. In other words, in the absence of monetary pumping these activities would not emerge. Since bubble activities are not self-funded, their emergence must come at the expense of various self-funded or productive activities. This means that less real funding is left for productive activities, which in turn undermines those activities. In short, monetary pumping gives rise to the misallocation of resources, which as a rule manifests itself through a relative increase in non-productive activities against productive activities. - Greenspan
The Oxford English dictionary defines it as "a gas-filled cavity in liquid or in solidified liquid." One might say it has form but no substance -- the outward appearance of something substantial, but once the outside is pierced it is revealed to be based on a false impression. In the case of home prices, the interpretation would be that current home prices or price increases will be revealed to have been based on a false impression and when the surface is pierced we will see a substantial fall in prices.
Being in a "housing bubble" essentially means that home prices have ballooned beyond what a region's income levels or outside demand can sustain in the long run. If it is not a bubble when the market price of an asset is completely out of whack with the fundamental value of the asset, what do you call it? Fundamental value being set by a reasonable expectation of what rate of return can be expected from a comparable investment or what would it cost to replace it. The fundamental value in the case of a home is how much it can rent for and what would it cost to replace it, or can demand alone create fundamental value. At this point, minus potential future appreciation from the equation, it is much cheaper to rent than buy.
As a result, many recent home-buyers are making higher mortgage payments for the type and size of home that others are leasing for much smaller monthly rents. Those sitting on variable rate mortgages will face even higher monthly payments. The current job market can not support the real estate prices, so the question for Mesquite is will retirees continue to invest in real estate without regard to rates of return on their money? Can we count on the outside demand to sustain value? As long as they are going to live in it and are willing to pay the price, then does rate of return or replacement cost have no bearing on fundamental value?
Does this market lead to the conclusion that it makes better economic sense to rent and invest the difference? Or will those willing to invest without regard to investment return continue to drive up prices, to the point appreciation offsets higher cost of owning? Sounds like market timing. More likely, this simply emphasizes the need to know the market and buy right. Today there exists an eighteen to twenty four month supply of property available on the market, based on September and October 2007 actual closed transactions and that supply keeps growing along with the number of new real estate agents. Smart buyers are Hiring Experienced Buyers Agents to represent them. Short of the continued outside demand, looking at the fundamentals, implicit rents, income, local job market, it is a bubble, but don't hold your breath.
The conclusion I come to, based on current demographic shifts, Mesquite has what those retiring boomers are looking for, but can they afford our prices? Not everyone can afford to live in Scottsdale or Palm Springs, but some demand remains and they still grow and that likely is a glimpse into the future of Mesquite. What we are seeing today is more like a bump in the road, a correction in pricing. Mesquite's bright future remains just that! CWM 4/20/06
Are You Ready For A SOLD Sign?
(Sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date.)
Knowledge of the current market will be your key to success. Mistakes may prove very costly. Information on the short sale, and REO properties may not be available through MLS, Clark County assessor records are your best and most accurate source for those property comparable prices, it is public information. Agents in many cases may not have knowledge of these sales.
Learn How to Buy Right! We offer "Mesquite Market Smart Buyer" seminars every Saturday morning. Contact Chris Miller at ERA Brokers Consolidated to reserve your seat.
If you would like average price per square foot for a certain neighborhood, we will be happy to provide you a detailed report. Receive a comparable property evaluation on your property free.
RECENT SALES HISTORY:
The past few years were amazing in real estate. The returns for investors were huge. Unprecedented rates of housing cost inflation, and demand. Mesquite enjoyed this explosive market at every level and everyone is thrilled....right? Well, yes and no, this new market presents challenges for both buyers and sellers. From the buyer's side, the words "Sticker Shock" and "affordable housing" have taken on a new and real meaning. For sellers, due to the illusion of stellar appreciation rates, which may prove to be nothing more than nasty inflation driven by the excessive money supply, the line from the 1987 movie Wall Street, "Greed is Good" comes to mind, and may prove to be a stumbling block for many hoping to cash in. Achieving a balance here will be the challenge. As it always does the Market will find its fair value. A word of caution, we have seen some extremes, both high and low, so do your homework.
The market is now paying a terrible price for the funny money, speculation, and greed.
Since we broke our crystal ball here at Mesquite Market.com, we will leave predicting the future to someone else. The following statistics are from the local multiple listing service. Sold and closed as well as new units listed each month for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and now 2009 and includes all single family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. New refers to new listing versus newly built and sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date. As 2009 unfolds you can refer to these, compare and draw your own conclusions.
2005 Statistics:
2006 Statistics:
2006 sales were down 23% from 2005.
2007 Statistics:
Sales Prices were down from 19% to 30%, December 2006 to December 2007.
2008 Statistics:
For prices per square foot and specific neighborhood numbers contact us, we will be happy to break these numbers down further with you.
Is There A Bubble In Mesquite?
Before discussing the existence of a bubble, we need to define the term. We offer a few definitions: "If the reason the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be higher tomorrow - when 'fundamental' factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists."
Accordingly, the key features of a bubble are that the level of prices has been bid up beyond what is consistent with underlying fundamentals and that buyers of the asset do so with the expectation of future price increases. Think speculators!
Joseph Stiglitz (1990): "A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by rapid decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). ..."
We can define a bubble as activities that spring up on the back of loose monetary policy of the central bank. In other words, in the absence of monetary pumping these activities would not emerge. Since bubble activities are not self-funded, their emergence must come at the expense of various self-funded or productive activities. This means that less real funding is left for productive activities, which in turn undermines those activities. In short, monetary pumping gives rise to the misallocation of resources, which as a rule manifests itself through a relative increase in non-productive activities against productive activities. - Greenspan
The Oxford English dictionary defines it as "a gas-filled cavity in liquid or in solidified liquid." One might say it has form but no substance -- the outward appearance of something substantial, but once the outside is pierced it is revealed to be based on a false impression. In the case of home prices, the interpretation would be that current home prices or price increases will be revealed to have been based on a false impression and when the surface is pierced we will see a substantial fall in prices.
Being in a "housing bubble" essentially means that home prices have ballooned beyond what a region's income levels or outside demand can sustain in the long run. If it is not a bubble when the market price of an asset is completely out of whack with the fundamental value of the asset, what do you call it? Fundamental value being set by a reasonable expectation of what rate of return can be expected from a comparable investment or what would it cost to replace it. The fundamental value in the case of a home is how much it can rent for and what would it cost to replace it, or can demand alone create fundamental value. At this point, minus potential future appreciation from the equation, it is much cheaper to rent than buy.
As a result, many recent home-buyers are making higher mortgage payments for the type and size of home that others are leasing for much smaller monthly rents. Those sitting on variable rate mortgages will face even higher monthly payments. The current job market can not support the real estate prices, so the question for Mesquite is will retirees continue to invest in real estate without regard to rates of return on their money? Can we count on the outside demand to sustain value? As long as they are going to live in it and are willing to pay the price, then does rate of return or replacement cost have no bearing on fundamental value?
Does this market lead to the conclusion that it makes better economic sense to rent and invest the difference? Or will those willing to invest without regard to investment return continue to drive up prices, to the point appreciation offsets higher cost of owning? Sounds like market timing. More likely, this simply emphasizes the need to know the market and buy right. Today there exists an eighteen to twenty four month supply of property available on the market, based on September and October 2007 actual closed transactions and that supply keeps growing along with the number of new real estate agents. Smart buyers are Hiring Experienced Buyers Agents to represent them. Short of the continued outside demand, looking at the fundamentals, implicit rents, income, local job market, it is a bubble, but don't hold your breath.
The conclusion I come to, based on current demographic shifts, Mesquite has what those retiring boomers are looking for, but can they afford our prices? Not everyone can afford to live in Scottsdale or Palm Springs, but some demand remains and they still grow and that likely is a glimpse into the future of Mesquite. What we are seeing today is more like a bump in the road, a correction in pricing. Mesquite's bright future remains just that! CWM 4/20/06
Are You Ready For A SOLD Sign?
Most of what is going out of the active inventory is failed, canceled, expired, or withdrawn rather than sold and closed. These failed properties are still out there, many are vacant and still need to sell. Some are headed to foreclosure. Mesquite's foreclosure properties will be the competition in tomorrow's market. Motivated banks, pricing some, not all properties to sell. The number of failed listings year to date exceeds sold and closed listings nearly 5 to 1. At the current market prices, for many sellers, a short sale or foreclosure may be the only option, call me to discuss your options, Chris 435-862-5951
"Tuned In" sellers who still have equity are getting the news and adjusting to this new market and some are selling. Staying in front of the current trend is very challenging for most sellers. Most sellers continue to "Chase the Market down". "BUYER BEWARE" IS REAL, GET AN APPRAISAL! Anyone serious about selling a home today needs to understand the market and the buyers mindset. As prices trend down, buyer's are watching and waiting. While sellers look back at last years prices, buyers are looking forward, reading the news and looking for a better value. Serious sellers are in front of the trend. De-leveraging is a slow grinding process. Since no one knows how long or how far it may go, chasing it down could prove to be a long discouraging ride. Market number break down for the last 90 days "Mesquite Market Quarterly", due out mid April 2010. Sign up to receive this free market report on the front page.Residential Building Permits, 378 issued by the City of Mesquite during 2008. Sun City Mesquite pulled a majority of these building permits, adding pressure to the supply side. 2009 The City of Mesquite has issued 105 new residential building permits, including Sun City.
Register To Receive Mesquite Market Quarterly
(Sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date.)
Knowledge of the current market will be your key to success. Mistakes may prove very costly. Information on the short sale, and REO properties may not be available through MLS, Clark County assessor records are your best and most accurate source for those property comparable prices, it is public information. Agents in many cases may not have knowledge of these sales.
Learn How to Buy Right! We offer "Mesquite Market Smart Buyer" seminars every Saturday morning. Contact Chris Miller at ERA Brokers Consolidated to reserve your seat.
If you would like average price per square foot for a certain neighborhood, we will be happy to provide you a detailed report. Receive a comparable property evaluation on your property free.
RECENT SALES HISTORY:
The past few years were amazing in real estate. The returns for investors were huge. Unprecedented rates of housing cost inflation, and demand. Mesquite enjoyed this explosive market at every level and everyone is thrilled....right? Well, yes and no, this new market presents challenges for both buyers and sellers. From the buyer's side, the words "Sticker Shock" and "affordable housing" have taken on a new and real meaning. For sellers, due to the illusion of stellar appreciation rates, which may prove to be nothing more than nasty inflation driven by the excessive money supply, the line from the 1987 movie Wall Street, "Greed is Good" comes to mind, and may prove to be a stumbling block for many hoping to cash in. Achieving a balance here will be the challenge. As it always does the Market will find its fair value. A word of caution, we have seen some extremes, both high and low, so do your homework.
The market is now paying a terrible price for the funny money, speculation, and greed.
Since we broke our crystal ball here at Mesquite Market.com, we will leave predicting the future to someone else. The following statistics are from the local multiple listing service. Sold and closed as well as new units listed each month for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and now 2009 and includes all single family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. New refers to new listing versus newly built and sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date. As 2009 unfolds you can refer to these, compare and draw your own conclusions.
2005 Statistics:
2006 Statistics:
2006 sales were down 23% from 2005.
2007 Statistics:
Sales Prices were down from 19% to 30%, December 2006 to December 2007.
2008 Statistics:
For prices per square foot and specific neighborhood numbers contact us, we will be happy to break these numbers down further with you.
Is There A Bubble In Mesquite?
Before discussing the existence of a bubble, we need to define the term. We offer a few definitions: "If the reason the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be higher tomorrow - when 'fundamental' factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists."
Accordingly, the key features of a bubble are that the level of prices has been bid up beyond what is consistent with underlying fundamentals and that buyers of the asset do so with the expectation of future price increases. Think speculators!
Joseph Stiglitz (1990): "A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by rapid decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). ..."
We can define a bubble as activities that spring up on the back of loose monetary policy of the central bank. In other words, in the absence of monetary pumping these activities would not emerge. Since bubble activities are not self-funded, their emergence must come at the expense of various self-funded or productive activities. This means that less real funding is left for productive activities, which in turn undermines those activities. In short, monetary pumping gives rise to the misallocation of resources, which as a rule manifests itself through a relative increase in non-productive activities against productive activities. - Greenspan
The Oxford English dictionary defines it as "a gas-filled cavity in liquid or in solidified liquid." One might say it has form but no substance -- the outward appearance of something substantial, but once the outside is pierced it is revealed to be based on a false impression. In the case of home prices, the interpretation would be that current home prices or price increases will be revealed to have been based on a false impression and when the surface is pierced we will see a substantial fall in prices.
Being in a "housing bubble" essentially means that home prices have ballooned beyond what a region's income levels or outside demand can sustain in the long run. If it is not a bubble when the market price of an asset is completely out of whack with the fundamental value of the asset, what do you call it? Fundamental value being set by a reasonable expectation of what rate of return can be expected from a comparable investment or what would it cost to replace it. The fundamental value in the case of a home is how much it can rent for and what would it cost to replace it, or can demand alone create fundamental value. At this point, minus potential future appreciation from the equation, it is much cheaper to rent than buy.
As a result, many recent home-buyers are making higher mortgage payments for the type and size of home that others are leasing for much smaller monthly rents. Those sitting on variable rate mortgages will face even higher monthly payments. The current job market can not support the real estate prices, so the question for Mesquite is will retirees continue to invest in real estate without regard to rates of return on their money? Can we count on the outside demand to sustain value? As long as they are going to live in it and are willing to pay the price, then does rate of return or replacement cost have no bearing on fundamental value?
Does this market lead to the conclusion that it makes better economic sense to rent and invest the difference? Or will those willing to invest without regard to investment return continue to drive up prices, to the point appreciation offsets higher cost of owning? Sounds like market timing. More likely, this simply emphasizes the need to know the market and buy right. Today there exists an eighteen to twenty four month supply of property available on the market, based on September and October 2007 actual closed transactions and that supply keeps growing along with the number of new real estate agents. Smart buyers are Hiring Experienced Buyers Agents to represent them. Short of the continued outside demand, looking at the fundamentals, implicit rents, income, local job market, it is a bubble, but don't hold your breath.
The conclusion I come to, based on current demographic shifts, Mesquite has what those retiring boomers are looking for, but can they afford our prices? Not everyone can afford to live in Scottsdale or Palm Springs, but some demand remains and they still grow and that likely is a glimpse into the future of Mesquite. What we are seeing today is more like a bump in the road, a correction in pricing. Mesquite's bright future remains just that! CWM 4/20/06
Are You Ready For A SOLD Sign?
Most of what is going out of the active inventory is failed, canceled, expired, or withdrawn rather than sold and closed. These failed properties are still out there, many are vacant and still need to sell. Some are headed to foreclosure. Mesquite's foreclosure properties will be the competition in tomorrow's market. Motivated banks, pricing some, not all properties to sell. The number of failed listings year to date exceeds sold and closed listings nearly 5 to 1. At the current market prices, for many sellers, a short sale or foreclosure may be the only option, call me to discuss your options, Chris 435-862-5951
"Tuned In" sellers who still have equity are getting the news and adjusting to this new market and some are selling. Staying in front of the current trend is very challenging for most sellers. Most sellers continue to "Chase the Market down". "BUYER BEWARE" IS REAL, GET AN APPRAISAL! Anyone serious about selling a home today needs to understand the market and the buyers mindset. As prices trend down, buyer's are watching and waiting. While sellers look back at last years prices, buyers are looking forward, reading the news and looking for a better value. Serious sellers are in front of the trend. De-leveraging is a slow grinding process. Since no one knows how long or how far it may go, chasing it down could prove to be a long discouraging ride. Market number break down for the last 90 days "Mesquite Market Quarterly", due out mid April 2010. Sign up to receive this free market report on the front page.Residential Building Permits, 378 issued by the City of Mesquite during 2008. Sun City Mesquite pulled a majority of these building permits, adding pressure to the supply side. 2009 The City of Mesquite has issued 105 new residential building permits, including Sun City.
Register To Receive Mesquite Market Quarterly
Register To Receive Mesquite Market Quarterly
(Sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date.)
Knowledge of the current market will be your key to success. Mistakes may prove very costly. Information on the short sale, and REO properties may not be available through MLS, Clark County assessor records are your best and most accurate source for those property comparable prices, it is public information. Agents in many cases may not have knowledge of these sales.
Learn How to Buy Right! We offer "Mesquite Market Smart Buyer" seminars every Saturday morning. Contact Chris Miller at ERA Brokers Consolidated to reserve your seat.
If you would like average price per square foot for a certain neighborhood, we will be happy to provide you a detailed report. Receive a comparable property evaluation on your property free.
RECENT SALES HISTORY:
The past few years were amazing in real estate. The returns for investors were huge. Unprecedented rates of housing cost inflation, and demand. Mesquite enjoyed this explosive market at every level and everyone is thrilled....right? Well, yes and no, this new market presents challenges for both buyers and sellers. From the buyer's side, the words "Sticker Shock" and "affordable housing" have taken on a new and real meaning. For sellers, due to the illusion of stellar appreciation rates, which may prove to be nothing more than nasty inflation driven by the excessive money supply, the line from the 1987 movie Wall Street, "Greed is Good" comes to mind, and may prove to be a stumbling block for many hoping to cash in. Achieving a balance here will be the challenge. As it always does the Market will find its fair value. A word of caution, we have seen some extremes, both high and low, so do your homework.
The market is now paying a terrible price for the funny money, speculation, and greed.
Since we broke our crystal ball here at Mesquite Market.com, we will leave predicting the future to someone else. The following statistics are from the local multiple listing service. Sold and closed as well as new units listed each month for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and now 2009 and includes all single family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. New refers to new listing versus newly built and sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date. As 2009 unfolds you can refer to these, compare and draw your own conclusions.
2005 Statistics:
January sold 41 units, 50 units listed
February sold 38 units, 50 units listed
March sold 69 units, 61 units listed
April sold 66 units, 78 units listed
May sold 67 units, 59 units listed
June sold 71 units, 62 units listed
July sold 55 units, 92 units listed
August sold 71 units, 82 units listed
September sold 75 units, 84 units listed
October sold 51 units, 85 units listed
November sold 53 units, 101 units listed
December sold 37 units, 71 units listed
2006 Statistics:
January sold 38, 66 units listed
February sold 43, 83 units listed
March sold 59, 89 units listed
April sold 44, 77 units listed
May sold 43, 81 units listed
June sold 41, 77 units listed
July sold 37, 54 units listed
August sold 44, 90 units listed
September sold 40, 91 units listed
October sold 25, 128 units listed
November sold 37, 95 units listed
December sold 31, 49 units listed
2006 sales were down 23% from 2005.
2007 Statistics:
January sold 28, 88 units listed
February sold 31, 78 units listed
March sold 60, 83 units listed
April sold 56, 76 units listed
May sold 50, 94 units listed
June sold 41, 82 units listed
July sold 34, 59 units listed
August sold 26, 79 units listed
September sold 24, 84 units listed
October sold 20, 88 units listed
November sold 30, 75 units listed
December sold 16, 64 units listed
Sales Prices were down from 19% to 30%, December 2006 to December 2007.
2008 Statistics:
January sold 26, 101 units listed
February sold 12, 76 units listed
March sold 35, 184 units listed
April sold 33, 69 units listed
May sold 30, 63 units listed
June sold 24, 67 units listed
July sold 25, 76 units listed
August sold 14, 57 units listed
September sold 19, 64 units listed
October sold 21, 73 units listed
November sold 20, 105 units listed
December sold 18, 54 units listed
2009 Statistics:
January sold 14, 76 units listed
February sold 26, 55 units listed
March sold 25, 76 units listed
April sold 25, 117 units listed
May sold 28, 62 units listed
June sold 32, 69 units listed
July sold 25, 59 units listed
August sold 30, 69 units listed
September sold 36, 88 units listed
October sold 30, 62 units listed
November sold 36, 65 units listed
December sold 53, December closings averaged $89 per square foot, 50 units listed
For prices per square foot and specific neighborhood numbers contact us, we will be happy to break these numbers down further with you.
Is There A Bubble In Mesquite?
Before discussing the existence of a bubble, we need to define the term. We offer a few definitions: "If the reason the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be higher tomorrow - when 'fundamental' factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists."
Accordingly, the key features of a bubble are that the level of prices has been bid up beyond what is consistent with underlying fundamentals and that buyers of the asset do so with the expectation of future price increases. Think speculators!
Joseph Stiglitz (1990): "A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by rapid decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). ..."
We can define a bubble as activities that spring up on the back of loose monetary policy of the central bank. In other words, in the absence of monetary pumping these activities would not emerge. Since bubble activities are not self-funded, their emergence must come at the expense of various self-funded or productive activities. This means that less real funding is left for productive activities, which in turn undermines those activities. In short, monetary pumping gives rise to the misallocation of resources, which as a rule manifests itself through a relative increase in non-productive activities against productive activities. - Greenspan
The Oxford English dictionary defines it as "a gas-filled cavity in liquid or in solidified liquid." One might say it has form but no substance -- the outward appearance of something substantial, but once the outside is pierced it is revealed to be based on a false impression. In the case of home prices, the interpretation would be that current home prices or price increases will be revealed to have been based on a false impression and when the surface is pierced we will see a substantial fall in prices.
Being in a "housing bubble" essentially means that home prices have ballooned beyond what a region's income levels or outside demand can sustain in the long run. If it is not a bubble when the market price of an asset is completely out of whack with the fundamental value of the asset, what do you call it? Fundamental value being set by a reasonable expectation of what rate of return can be expected from a comparable investment or what would it cost to replace it. The fundamental value in the case of a home is how much it can rent for and what would it cost to replace it, or can demand alone create fundamental value. At this point, minus potential future appreciation from the equation, it is much cheaper to rent than buy.
As a result, many recent home-buyers are making higher mortgage payments for the type and size of home that others are leasing for much smaller monthly rents. Those sitting on variable rate mortgages will face even higher monthly payments. The current job market can not support the real estate prices, so the question for Mesquite is will retirees continue to invest in real estate without regard to rates of return on their money? Can we count on the outside demand to sustain value? As long as they are going to live in it and are willing to pay the price, then does rate of return or replacement cost have no bearing on fundamental value?
Does this market lead to the conclusion that it makes better economic sense to rent and invest the difference? Or will those willing to invest without regard to investment return continue to drive up prices, to the point appreciation offsets higher cost of owning? Sounds like market timing. More likely, this simply emphasizes the need to know the market and buy right. Today there exists an eighteen to twenty four month supply of property available on the market, based on September and October 2007 actual closed transactions and that supply keeps growing along with the number of new real estate agents. Smart buyers are Hiring Experienced Buyers Agents to represent them. Short of the continued outside demand, looking at the fundamentals, implicit rents, income, local job market, it is a bubble, but don't hold your breath.
The conclusion I come to, based on current demographic shifts, Mesquite has what those retiring boomers are looking for, but can they afford our prices? Not everyone can afford to live in Scottsdale or Palm Springs, but some demand remains and they still grow and that likely is a glimpse into the future of Mesquite. What we are seeing today is more like a bump in the road, a correction in pricing. Mesquite's bright future remains just that! CWM 4/20/06
Are You Ready For A SOLD Sign?
Register To Receive Mesquite Market Quarterly
(Sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date.)
Knowledge of the current market will be your key to success. Mistakes may prove very costly. Information on the short sale, and REO properties may not be available through MLS, Clark County assessor records are your best and most accurate source for those property comparable prices, it is public information. Agents in many cases may not have knowledge of these sales.
Learn How to Buy Right! We offer "Mesquite Market Smart Buyer" seminars every Saturday morning. Contact Chris Miller at ERA Brokers Consolidated to reserve your seat.
If you would like average price per square foot for a certain neighborhood, we will be happy to provide you a detailed report. Receive a comparable property evaluation on your property free.
RECENT SALES HISTORY:
The past few years were amazing in real estate. The returns for investors were huge. Unprecedented rates of housing cost inflation, and demand. Mesquite enjoyed this explosive market at every level and everyone is thrilled....right? Well, yes and no, this new market presents challenges for both buyers and sellers. From the buyer's side, the words "Sticker Shock" and "affordable housing" have taken on a new and real meaning. For sellers, due to the illusion of stellar appreciation rates, which may prove to be nothing more than nasty inflation driven by the excessive money supply, the line from the 1987 movie Wall Street, "Greed is Good" comes to mind, and may prove to be a stumbling block for many hoping to cash in. Achieving a balance here will be the challenge. As it always does the Market will find its fair value. A word of caution, we have seen some extremes, both high and low, so do your homework.
The market is now paying a terrible price for the funny money, speculation, and greed.
Since we broke our crystal ball here at Mesquite Market.com, we will leave predicting the future to someone else. The following statistics are from the local multiple listing service. Sold and closed as well as new units listed each month for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and now 2009 and includes all single family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. New refers to new listing versus newly built and sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date. As 2009 unfolds you can refer to these, compare and draw your own conclusions.
2005 Statistics:
2006 Statistics:
2006 sales were down 23% from 2005.
2007 Statistics:
Sales Prices were down from 19% to 30%, December 2006 to December 2007.
2008 Statistics:
For prices per square foot and specific neighborhood numbers contact us, we will be happy to break these numbers down further with you.
Is There A Bubble In Mesquite?
Before discussing the existence of a bubble, we need to define the term. We offer a few definitions: "If the reason the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be higher tomorrow - when 'fundamental' factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists."
Accordingly, the key features of a bubble are that the level of prices has been bid up beyond what is consistent with underlying fundamentals and that buyers of the asset do so with the expectation of future price increases. Think speculators!
Joseph Stiglitz (1990): "A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by rapid decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). ..."
We can define a bubble as activities that spring up on the back of loose monetary policy of the central bank. In other words, in the absence of monetary pumping these activities would not emerge. Since bubble activities are not self-funded, their emergence must come at the expense of various self-funded or productive activities. This means that less real funding is left for productive activities, which in turn undermines those activities. In short, monetary pumping gives rise to the misallocation of resources, which as a rule manifests itself through a relative increase in non-productive activities against productive activities. - Greenspan
The Oxford English dictionary defines it as "a gas-filled cavity in liquid or in solidified liquid." One might say it has form but no substance -- the outward appearance of something substantial, but once the outside is pierced it is revealed to be based on a false impression. In the case of home prices, the interpretation would be that current home prices or price increases will be revealed to have been based on a false impression and when the surface is pierced we will see a substantial fall in prices.
Being in a "housing bubble" essentially means that home prices have ballooned beyond what a region's income levels or outside demand can sustain in the long run. If it is not a bubble when the market price of an asset is completely out of whack with the fundamental value of the asset, what do you call it? Fundamental value being set by a reasonable expectation of what rate of return can be expected from a comparable investment or what would it cost to replace it. The fundamental value in the case of a home is how much it can rent for and what would it cost to replace it, or can demand alone create fundamental value. At this point, minus potential future appreciation from the equation, it is much cheaper to rent than buy.
As a result, many recent home-buyers are making higher mortgage payments for the type and size of home that others are leasing for much smaller monthly rents. Those sitting on variable rate mortgages will face even higher monthly payments. The current job market can not support the real estate prices, so the question for Mesquite is will retirees continue to invest in real estate without regard to rates of return on their money? Can we count on the outside demand to sustain value? As long as they are going to live in it and are willing to pay the price, then does rate of return or replacement cost have no bearing on fundamental value?
Does this market lead to the conclusion that it makes better economic sense to rent and invest the difference? Or will those willing to invest without regard to investment return continue to drive up prices, to the point appreciation offsets higher cost of owning? Sounds like market timing. More likely, this simply emphasizes the need to know the market and buy right. Today there exists an eighteen to twenty four month supply of property available on the market, based on September and October 2007 actual closed transactions and that supply keeps growing along with the number of new real estate agents. Smart buyers are Hiring Experienced Buyers Agents to represent them. Short of the continued outside demand, looking at the fundamentals, implicit rents, income, local job market, it is a bubble, but don't hold your breath.
The conclusion I come to, based on current demographic shifts, Mesquite has what those retiring boomers are looking for, but can they afford our prices? Not everyone can afford to live in Scottsdale or Palm Springs, but some demand remains and they still grow and that likely is a glimpse into the future of Mesquite. What we are seeing today is more like a bump in the road, a correction in pricing. Mesquite's bright future remains just that! CWM 4/20/06
Are You Ready For A SOLD Sign?
(Sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date.)
Knowledge of the current market will be your key to success. Mistakes may prove very costly. Information on the short sale, and REO properties may not be available through MLS, Clark County assessor records are your best and most accurate source for those property comparable prices, it is public information. Agents in many cases may not have knowledge of these sales.
Learn How to Buy Right! We offer "Mesquite Market Smart Buyer" seminars every Saturday morning. Contact Chris Miller at ERA Brokers Consolidated to reserve your seat.
If you would like average price per square foot for a certain neighborhood, we will be happy to provide you a detailed report. Receive a comparable property evaluation on your property free.
RECENT SALES HISTORY:
The past few years were amazing in real estate. The returns for investors were huge. Unprecedented rates of housing cost inflation, and demand. Mesquite enjoyed this explosive market at every level and everyone is thrilled....right? Well, yes and no, this new market presents challenges for both buyers and sellers. From the buyer's side, the words "Sticker Shock" and "affordable housing" have taken on a new and real meaning. For sellers, due to the illusion of stellar appreciation rates, which may prove to be nothing more than nasty inflation driven by the excessive money supply, the line from the 1987 movie Wall Street, "Greed is Good" comes to mind, and may prove to be a stumbling block for many hoping to cash in. Achieving a balance here will be the challenge. As it always does the Market will find its fair value. A word of caution, we have seen some extremes, both high and low, so do your homework.
The market is now paying a terrible price for the funny money, speculation, and greed.
Since we broke our crystal ball here at Mesquite Market.com, we will leave predicting the future to someone else. The following statistics are from the local multiple listing service. Sold and closed as well as new units listed each month for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and now 2009 and includes all single family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. New refers to new listing versus newly built and sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date. As 2009 unfolds you can refer to these, compare and draw your own conclusions.
2005 Statistics:
2006 Statistics:
2006 sales were down 23% from 2005.
2007 Statistics:
Sales Prices were down from 19% to 30%, December 2006 to December 2007.
2008 Statistics:
For prices per square foot and specific neighborhood numbers contact us, we will be happy to break these numbers down further with you.
Is There A Bubble In Mesquite?
Before discussing the existence of a bubble, we need to define the term. We offer a few definitions: "If the reason the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be higher tomorrow - when 'fundamental' factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists."
Accordingly, the key features of a bubble are that the level of prices has been bid up beyond what is consistent with underlying fundamentals and that buyers of the asset do so with the expectation of future price increases. Think speculators!
Joseph Stiglitz (1990): "A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by rapid decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). ..."
We can define a bubble as activities that spring up on the back of loose monetary policy of the central bank. In other words, in the absence of monetary pumping these activities would not emerge. Since bubble activities are not self-funded, their emergence must come at the expense of various self-funded or productive activities. This means that less real funding is left for productive activities, which in turn undermines those activities. In short, monetary pumping gives rise to the misallocation of resources, which as a rule manifests itself through a relative increase in non-productive activities against productive activities. - Greenspan
The Oxford English dictionary defines it as "a gas-filled cavity in liquid or in solidified liquid." One might say it has form but no substance -- the outward appearance of something substantial, but once the outside is pierced it is revealed to be based on a false impression. In the case of home prices, the interpretation would be that current home prices or price increases will be revealed to have been based on a false impression and when the surface is pierced we will see a substantial fall in prices.
Being in a "housing bubble" essentially means that home prices have ballooned beyond what a region's income levels or outside demand can sustain in the long run. If it is not a bubble when the market price of an asset is completely out of whack with the fundamental value of the asset, what do you call it? Fundamental value being set by a reasonable expectation of what rate of return can be expected from a comparable investment or what would it cost to replace it. The fundamental value in the case of a home is how much it can rent for and what would it cost to replace it, or can demand alone create fundamental value. At this point, minus potential future appreciation from the equation, it is much cheaper to rent than buy.
As a result, many recent home-buyers are making higher mortgage payments for the type and size of home that others are leasing for much smaller monthly rents. Those sitting on variable rate mortgages will face even higher monthly payments. The current job market can not support the real estate prices, so the question for Mesquite is will retirees continue to invest in real estate without regard to rates of return on their money? Can we count on the outside demand to sustain value? As long as they are going to live in it and are willing to pay the price, then does rate of return or replacement cost have no bearing on fundamental value?
Does this market lead to the conclusion that it makes better economic sense to rent and invest the difference? Or will those willing to invest without regard to investment return continue to drive up prices, to the point appreciation offsets higher cost of owning? Sounds like market timing. More likely, this simply emphasizes the need to know the market and buy right. Today there exists an eighteen to twenty four month supply of property available on the market, based on September and October 2007 actual closed transactions and that supply keeps growing along with the number of new real estate agents. Smart buyers are Hiring Experienced Buyers Agents to represent them. Short of the continued outside demand, looking at the fundamentals, implicit rents, income, local job market, it is a bubble, but don't hold your breath.
The conclusion I come to, based on current demographic shifts, Mesquite has what those retiring boomers are looking for, but can they afford our prices? Not everyone can afford to live in Scottsdale or Palm Springs, but some demand remains and they still grow and that likely is a glimpse into the future of Mesquite. What we are seeing today is more like a bump in the road, a correction in pricing. Mesquite's bright future remains just that! CWM 4/20/06
Are You Ready For A SOLD Sign?
Most of what is going out of the active inventory is failed, canceled, expired, or withdrawn rather than sold and closed. These failed properties are still out there, many are vacant and still need to sell. Some are headed to foreclosure. Mesquite's foreclosure properties will be the competition in tomorrow's market. Motivated banks, pricing some, not all properties to sell. The number of failed listings year to date exceeds sold and closed listings nearly 5 to 1. At the current market prices, for many sellers, a short sale or foreclosure may be the only option, call me to discuss your options, Chris 435-862-5951
"Tuned In" sellers who still have equity are getting the news and adjusting to this new market and some are selling. Staying in front of the current trend is very challenging for most sellers. Most sellers continue to "Chase the Market down". "BUYER BEWARE" IS REAL, GET AN APPRAISAL! Anyone serious about selling a home today needs to understand the market and the buyers mindset. As prices trend down, buyer's are watching and waiting. While sellers look back at last years prices, buyers are looking forward, reading the news and looking for a better value. Serious sellers are in front of the trend. De-leveraging is a slow grinding process. Since no one knows how long or how far it may go, chasing it down could prove to be a long discouraging ride. Market number break down for the last 90 days "Mesquite Market Quarterly", due out mid April 2010. Sign up to receive this free market report on the front page.Residential Building Permits, 378 issued by the City of Mesquite during 2008. Sun City Mesquite pulled a majority of these building permits, adding pressure to the supply side. 2009 The City of Mesquite has issued 105 new residential building permits, including Sun City.
Register To Receive Mesquite Market Quarterly
(Sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date.)
Knowledge of the current market will be your key to success. Mistakes may prove very costly. Information on the short sale, and REO properties may not be available through MLS, Clark County assessor records are your best and most accurate source for those property comparable prices, it is public information. Agents in many cases may not have knowledge of these sales.
Learn How to Buy Right! We offer "Mesquite Market Smart Buyer" seminars every Saturday morning. Contact Chris Miller at ERA Brokers Consolidated to reserve your seat.
If you would like average price per square foot for a certain neighborhood, we will be happy to provide you a detailed report. Receive a comparable property evaluation on your property free.
RECENT SALES HISTORY:
The past few years were amazing in real estate. The returns for investors were huge. Unprecedented rates of housing cost inflation, and demand. Mesquite enjoyed this explosive market at every level and everyone is thrilled....right? Well, yes and no, this new market presents challenges for both buyers and sellers. From the buyer's side, the words "Sticker Shock" and "affordable housing" have taken on a new and real meaning. For sellers, due to the illusion of stellar appreciation rates, which may prove to be nothing more than nasty inflation driven by the excessive money supply, the line from the 1987 movie Wall Street, "Greed is Good" comes to mind, and may prove to be a stumbling block for many hoping to cash in. Achieving a balance here will be the challenge. As it always does the Market will find its fair value. A word of caution, we have seen some extremes, both high and low, so do your homework.
The market is now paying a terrible price for the funny money, speculation, and greed.
Since we broke our crystal ball here at Mesquite Market.com, we will leave predicting the future to someone else. The following statistics are from the local multiple listing service. Sold and closed as well as new units listed each month for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and now 2009 and includes all single family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. New refers to new listing versus newly built and sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date. As 2009 unfolds you can refer to these, compare and draw your own conclusions.
2005 Statistics:
2006 Statistics:
2006 sales were down 23% from 2005.
2007 Statistics:
Sales Prices were down from 19% to 30%, December 2006 to December 2007.
2008 Statistics:
For prices per square foot and specific neighborhood numbers contact us, we will be happy to break these numbers down further with you.
Is There A Bubble In Mesquite?
Before discussing the existence of a bubble, we need to define the term. We offer a few definitions: "If the reason the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be higher tomorrow - when 'fundamental' factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists."
Accordingly, the key features of a bubble are that the level of prices has been bid up beyond what is consistent with underlying fundamentals and that buyers of the asset do so with the expectation of future price increases. Think speculators!
Joseph Stiglitz (1990): "A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by rapid decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). ..."
We can define a bubble as activities that spring up on the back of loose monetary policy of the central bank. In other words, in the absence of monetary pumping these activities would not emerge. Since bubble activities are not self-funded, their emergence must come at the expense of various self-funded or productive activities. This means that less real funding is left for productive activities, which in turn undermines those activities. In short, monetary pumping gives rise to the misallocation of resources, which as a rule manifests itself through a relative increase in non-productive activities against productive activities. - Greenspan
The Oxford English dictionary defines it as "a gas-filled cavity in liquid or in solidified liquid." One might say it has form but no substance -- the outward appearance of something substantial, but once the outside is pierced it is revealed to be based on a false impression. In the case of home prices, the interpretation would be that current home prices or price increases will be revealed to have been based on a false impression and when the surface is pierced we will see a substantial fall in prices.
Being in a "housing bubble" essentially means that home prices have ballooned beyond what a region's income levels or outside demand can sustain in the long run. If it is not a bubble when the market price of an asset is completely out of whack with the fundamental value of the asset, what do you call it? Fundamental value being set by a reasonable expectation of what rate of return can be expected from a comparable investment or what would it cost to replace it. The fundamental value in the case of a home is how much it can rent for and what would it cost to replace it, or can demand alone create fundamental value. At this point, minus potential future appreciation from the equation, it is much cheaper to rent than buy.
As a result, many recent home-buyers are making higher mortgage payments for the type and size of home that others are leasing for much smaller monthly rents. Those sitting on variable rate mortgages will face even higher monthly payments. The current job market can not support the real estate prices, so the question for Mesquite is will retirees continue to invest in real estate without regard to rates of return on their money? Can we count on the outside demand to sustain value? As long as they are going to live in it and are willing to pay the price, then does rate of return or replacement cost have no bearing on fundamental value?
Does this market lead to the conclusion that it makes better economic sense to rent and invest the difference? Or will those willing to invest without regard to investment return continue to drive up prices, to the point appreciation offsets higher cost of owning? Sounds like market timing. More likely, this simply emphasizes the need to know the market and buy right. Today there exists an eighteen to twenty four month supply of property available on the market, based on September and October 2007 actual closed transactions and that supply keeps growing along with the number of new real estate agents. Smart buyers are Hiring Experienced Buyers Agents to represent them. Short of the continued outside demand, looking at the fundamentals, implicit rents, income, local job market, it is a bubble, but don't hold your breath.
The conclusion I come to, based on current demographic shifts, Mesquite has what those retiring boomers are looking for, but can they afford our prices? Not everyone can afford to live in Scottsdale or Palm Springs, but some demand remains and they still grow and that likely is a glimpse into the future of Mesquite. What we are seeing today is more like a bump in the road, a correction in pricing. Mesquite's bright future remains just that! CWM 4/20/06
Are You Ready For A SOLD Sign?
Most of what is going out of the active inventory is failed, canceled, expired, or withdrawn rather than sold and closed. These failed properties are still out there, many are vacant and still need to sell. Some are headed to foreclosure. Mesquite's foreclosure properties will be the competition in tomorrow's market. Motivated banks, pricing some, not all properties to sell. The number of failed listings year to date exceeds sold and closed listings nearly 5 to 1. At the current market prices, for many sellers, a short sale or foreclosure may be the only option, call me to discuss your options, Chris 435-862-5951
"Tuned In" sellers who still have equity are getting the news and adjusting to this new market and some are selling. Staying in front of the current trend is very challenging for most sellers. Most sellers continue to "Chase the Market down". "BUYER BEWARE" IS REAL, GET AN APPRAISAL! Anyone serious about selling a home today needs to understand the market and the buyers mindset. As prices trend down, buyer's are watching and waiting. While sellers look back at last years prices, buyers are looking forward, reading the news and looking for a better value. Serious sellers are in front of the trend. De-leveraging is a slow grinding process. Since no one knows how long or how far it may go, chasing it down could prove to be a long discouraging ride. Market number break down for the last 90 days "Mesquite Market Quarterly", due out mid April 2010. Sign up to receive this free market report on the front page.Residential Building Permits, 378 issued by the City of Mesquite during 2008. Sun City Mesquite pulled a majority of these building permits, adding pressure to the supply side. 2009 The City of Mesquite has issued 105 new residential building permits, including Sun City.
Register To Receive Mesquite Market Quarterly
(Sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date.)
Knowledge of the current market will be your key to success. Mistakes may prove very costly. Information on the short sale, and REO properties may not be available through MLS, Clark County assessor records are your best and most accurate source for those property comparable prices, it is public information. Agents in many cases may not have knowledge of these sales.
Learn How to Buy Right! We offer "Mesquite Market Smart Buyer" seminars every Saturday morning. Contact Chris Miller at ERA Brokers Consolidated to reserve your seat.
If you would like average price per square foot for a certain neighborhood, we will be happy to provide you a detailed report. Receive a comparable property evaluation on your property free.
RECENT SALES HISTORY:
The past few years were amazing in real estate. The returns for investors were huge. Unprecedented rates of housing cost inflation, and demand. Mesquite enjoyed this explosive market at every level and everyone is thrilled....right? Well, yes and no, this new market presents challenges for both buyers and sellers. From the buyer's side, the words "Sticker Shock" and "affordable housing" have taken on a new and real meaning. For sellers, due to the illusion of stellar appreciation rates, which may prove to be nothing more than nasty inflation driven by the excessive money supply, the line from the 1987 movie Wall Street, "Greed is Good" comes to mind, and may prove to be a stumbling block for many hoping to cash in. Achieving a balance here will be the challenge. As it always does the Market will find its fair value. A word of caution, we have seen some extremes, both high and low, so do your homework.
The market is now paying a terrible price for the funny money, speculation, and greed.
Since we broke our crystal ball here at Mesquite Market.com, we will leave predicting the future to someone else. The following statistics are from the local multiple listing service. Sold and closed as well as new units listed each month for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and now 2009 and includes all single family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. New refers to new listing versus newly built and sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date. As 2009 unfolds you can refer to these, compare and draw your own conclusions.
2005 Statistics:
2006 Statistics:
2006 sales were down 23% from 2005.
2007 Statistics:
Sales Prices were down from 19% to 30%, December 2006 to December 2007.
2008 Statistics:
For prices per square foot and specific neighborhood numbers contact us, we will be happy to break these numbers down further with you.
Is There A Bubble In Mesquite?
Before discussing the existence of a bubble, we need to define the term. We offer a few definitions: "If the reason the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be higher tomorrow - when 'fundamental' factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists."
Accordingly, the key features of a bubble are that the level of prices has been bid up beyond what is consistent with underlying fundamentals and that buyers of the asset do so with the expectation of future price increases. Think speculators!
Joseph Stiglitz (1990): "A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by rapid decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). ..."
We can define a bubble as activities that spring up on the back of loose monetary policy of the central bank. In other words, in the absence of monetary pumping these activities would not emerge. Since bubble activities are not self-funded, their emergence must come at the expense of various self-funded or productive activities. This means that less real funding is left for productive activities, which in turn undermines those activities. In short, monetary pumping gives rise to the misallocation of resources, which as a rule manifests itself through a relative increase in non-productive activities against productive activities. - Greenspan
The Oxford English dictionary defines it as "a gas-filled cavity in liquid or in solidified liquid." One might say it has form but no substance -- the outward appearance of something substantial, but once the outside is pierced it is revealed to be based on a false impression. In the case of home prices, the interpretation would be that current home prices or price increases will be revealed to have been based on a false impression and when the surface is pierced we will see a substantial fall in prices.
Being in a "housing bubble" essentially means that home prices have ballooned beyond what a region's income levels or outside demand can sustain in the long run. If it is not a bubble when the market price of an asset is completely out of whack with the fundamental value of the asset, what do you call it? Fundamental value being set by a reasonable expectation of what rate of return can be expected from a comparable investment or what would it cost to replace it. The fundamental value in the case of a home is how much it can rent for and what would it cost to replace it, or can demand alone create fundamental value. At this point, minus potential future appreciation from the equation, it is much cheaper to rent than buy.
As a result, many recent home-buyers are making higher mortgage payments for the type and size of home that others are leasing for much smaller monthly rents. Those sitting on variable rate mortgages will face even higher monthly payments. The current job market can not support the real estate prices, so the question for Mesquite is will retirees continue to invest in real estate without regard to rates of return on their money? Can we count on the outside demand to sustain value? As long as they are going to live in it and are willing to pay the price, then does rate of return or replacement cost have no bearing on fundamental value?
Does this market lead to the conclusion that it makes better economic sense to rent and invest the difference? Or will those willing to invest without regard to investment return continue to drive up prices, to the point appreciation offsets higher cost of owning? Sounds like market timing. More likely, this simply emphasizes the need to know the market and buy right. Today there exists an eighteen to twenty four month supply of property available on the market, based on September and October 2007 actual closed transactions and that supply keeps growing along with the number of new real estate agents. Smart buyers are Hiring Experienced Buyers Agents to represent them. Short of the continued outside demand, looking at the fundamentals, implicit rents, income, local job market, it is a bubble, but don't hold your breath.
The conclusion I come to, based on current demographic shifts, Mesquite has what those retiring boomers are looking for, but can they afford our prices? Not everyone can afford to live in Scottsdale or Palm Springs, but some demand remains and they still grow and that likely is a glimpse into the future of Mesquite. What we are seeing today is more like a bump in the road, a correction in pricing. Mesquite's bright future remains just that! CWM 4/20/06
Are You Ready For A SOLD Sign?
Most of what is going out of the active inventory is failed, canceled, expired, or withdrawn rather than sold and closed. These failed properties are still out there, many are vacant and still need to sell. Some are headed to foreclosure. Mesquite's foreclosure properties will be the competition in tomorrow's market. Motivated banks, pricing some, not all properties to sell. The number of failed listings year to date exceeds sold and closed listings nearly 5 to 1. At the current market prices, for many sellers, a short sale or foreclosure may be the only option, call me to discuss your options, Chris 435-862-5951
"Tuned In" sellers who still have equity are getting the news and adjusting to this new market and some are selling. Staying in front of the current trend is very challenging for most sellers. Most sellers continue to "Chase the Market down". "BUYER BEWARE" IS REAL, GET AN APPRAISAL! Anyone serious about selling a home today needs to understand the market and the buyers mindset. As prices trend down, buyer's are watching and waiting. While sellers look back at last years prices, buyers are looking forward, reading the news and looking for a better value. Serious sellers are in front of the trend. De-leveraging is a slow grinding process. Since no one knows how long or how far it may go, chasing it down could prove to be a long discouraging ride. Market number break down for the last 90 days "Mesquite Market Quarterly", due out mid April 2010. Sign up to receive this free market report on the front page.Residential Building Permits, 378 issued by the City of Mesquite during 2008. Sun City Mesquite pulled a majority of these building permits, adding pressure to the supply side. 2009 The City of Mesquite has issued 105 new residential building permits, including Sun City.
Most of what is going out of the active inventory is failed, canceled, expired, or withdrawn rather than sold and closed. These failed properties are still out there, many are vacant and still need to sell. Some are headed to foreclosure. Mesquite's foreclosure properties will be the competition in tomorrow's market. Motivated banks, pricing some, not all properties to sell. The number of failed listings year to date exceeds sold and closed listings nearly 5 to 1. At the current market prices, for many sellers, a short sale or foreclosure may be the only option, call me to discuss your options, Chris 435-862-5951
"Tuned In" sellers who still have equity are getting the news and adjusting to this new market and some are selling. Staying in front of the current trend is very challenging for most sellers. Most sellers continue to "Chase the Market down". "BUYER BEWARE" IS REAL, GET AN APPRAISAL! Anyone serious about selling a home today needs to understand the market and the buyers mindset. As prices trend down, buyer's are watching and waiting. While sellers look back at last years prices, buyers are looking forward, reading the news and looking for a better value. Serious sellers are in front of the trend. De-leveraging is a slow grinding process. Since no one knows how long or how far it may go, chasing it down could prove to be a long discouraging ride. Market number break down for the last 90 days "Mesquite Market Quarterly", due out mid April 2010. Sign up to receive this free market report on the front page.Residential Building Permits, 378 issued by the City of Mesquite during 2008. Sun City Mesquite pulled a majority of these building permits, adding pressure to the supply side. 2009 The City of Mesquite has issued 105 new residential building permits, including Sun City.
Register To Receive Mesquite Market Quarterly
(Sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date.)
Knowledge of the current market will be your key to success. Mistakes may prove very costly. Information on the short sale, and REO properties may not be available through MLS, Clark County assessor records are your best and most accurate source for those property comparable prices, it is public information. Agents in many cases may not have knowledge of these sales.
Learn How to Buy Right! We offer "Mesquite Market Smart Buyer" seminars every Saturday morning. Contact Chris Miller at ERA Brokers Consolidated to reserve your seat.
If you would like average price per square foot for a certain neighborhood, we will be happy to provide you a detailed report. Receive a comparable property evaluation on your property free.
RECENT SALES HISTORY:
The past few years were amazing in real estate. The returns for investors were huge. Unprecedented rates of housing cost inflation, and demand. Mesquite enjoyed this explosive market at every level and everyone is thrilled....right? Well, yes and no, this new market presents challenges for both buyers and sellers. From the buyer's side, the words "Sticker Shock" and "affordable housing" have taken on a new and real meaning. For sellers, due to the illusion of stellar appreciation rates, which may prove to be nothing more than nasty inflation driven by the excessive money supply, the line from the 1987 movie Wall Street, "Greed is Good" comes to mind, and may prove to be a stumbling block for many hoping to cash in. Achieving a balance here will be the challenge. As it always does the Market will find its fair value. A word of caution, we have seen some extremes, both high and low, so do your homework.
The market is now paying a terrible price for the funny money, speculation, and greed.
Since we broke our crystal ball here at Mesquite Market.com, we will leave predicting the future to someone else. The following statistics are from the local multiple listing service. Sold and closed as well as new units listed each month for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and now 2009 and includes all single family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. New refers to new listing versus newly built and sold and closed refers to close of escrow date versus contract date. As 2009 unfolds you can refer to these, compare and draw your own conclusions.
2005 Statistics:
2006 Statistics:
2006 sales were down 23% from 2005.
2007 Statistics:
Sales Prices were down from 19% to 30%, December 2006 to December 2007.
2008 Statistics:
For prices per square foot and specific neighborhood numbers contact us, we will be happy to break these numbers down further with you.
Is There A Bubble In Mesquite?
Before discussing the existence of a bubble, we need to define the term. We offer a few definitions: "If the reason the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be higher tomorrow - when 'fundamental' factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists."
Accordingly, the key features of a bubble are that the level of prices has been bid up beyond what is consistent with underlying fundamentals and that buyers of the asset do so with the expectation of future price increases. Think speculators!
Joseph Stiglitz (1990): "A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by rapid decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). ..."
We can define a bubble as activities that spring up on the back of loose monetary policy of the central bank. In other words, in the absence of monetary pumping these activities would not emerge. Since bubble activities are not self-funded, their emergence must come at the expense of various self-funded or productive activities. This means that less real funding is left for productive activities, which in turn undermines those activities. In short, monetary pumping gives rise to the misallocation of resources, which as a rule manifests itself through a relative increase in non-productive activities against productive activities. - Greenspan
The Oxford English dictionary defines it as "a gas-filled cavity in liquid or in solidified liquid." One might say it has form but no substance -- the outward appearance of something substantial, but once the outside is pierced it is revealed to be based on a false impression. In the case of home prices, the interpretation would be that current home prices or price increases will be revealed to have been based on a false impression and when the surface is pierced we will see a substantial fall in prices.
Being in a "housing bubble" essentially means that home prices have ballooned beyond what a region's income levels or outside demand can sustain in the long run. If it is not a bubble when the market price of an asset is completely out of whack with the fundamental value of the asset, what do you call it? Fundamental value being set by a reasonable expectation of what rate of return can be expected from a comparable investment or what would it cost to replace it. The fundamental value in the case of a home is how much it can rent for and what would it cost to replace it, or can demand alone create fundamental value. At this point, minus potential future appreciation from the equation, it is much cheaper to rent than buy.
As a result, many recent home-buyers are making higher mortgage payments for the type and size of home that others are leasing for much smaller monthly rents. Those sitting on variable rate mortgages will face even higher monthly payments. The current job market can not support the real estate prices, so the question for Mesquite is will retirees continue to invest in real estate without regard to rates of return on their money? Can we count on the outside demand to sustain value? As long as they are going to live in it and are willing to pay the price, then does rate of return or replacement cost have no bearing on fundamental value?
Does this market lead to the conclusion that it makes better economic sense to rent and invest the difference? Or will those willing to invest without regard to investment return continue to drive up prices, to the point appreciation offsets higher cost of owning? Sounds like market timing. More likely, this simply emphasizes the need to know the market and buy right. Today there exists an eighteen to twenty four month supply of property available on the market, based on September and October 2007 actual closed transactions and that supply keeps growing along with the number of new real estate agents. Smart buyers are Hiring Experienced Buyers Agents to represent them. Short of the continued outside demand, looking at the fundamentals, implicit rents, income, local job market, it is a bubble, but don't hold your breath.
The conclusion I come to, based on current demographic shifts, Mesquite has what those retiring boomers are looking for, but can they afford our prices? Not everyone can afford to live in Scottsdale or Palm Springs, but some demand remains and they still grow and that likely is a glimpse into the future of Mesquite. What we are seeing today is more like a bump in the road, a correction in pricing. Mesquite's bright future remains just that! CWM 4/20/06
Are You Ready For A SOLD Sign?
