Mesquite Market

“Will I Have Enough Money in Retirement?”

Very few baby boomers have not given this question considerable thought.

Mesquite can continue down the path set some years back as a high end, wealthy, golf, and gaming lifestyle community with great weather. Mesquite did a good job of this, but times are changing. The market has changed. For those claiming credit for Mesquite’s booming past, the truth is it had a great deal to do with market timing, funny money, and the Palm Springs hype.

The high-end housing market is a very competitive and a shrinking market. New homes being built today continue to get smaller nationally. While Mesquite has focused on expensive HOA’s, gated neighborhoods, streetscapes, and image our competition is focusing on future cost saving efficiency and sustainable living.

Even a free and clear home is not free to live in, homeowner association costs, taxes, insurance, maintenance, and utilities all go on forever.

The boomers are just starting to retire this year and will be retiring at a pace of 8000 to 10,000 per day for the next nineteen years. These retirees are Mesquite’s future target market.

Besides their recent asset value losses and reduced personal net worth, they are concerned about future health care costs, pension stability, social security, debt, inflation, and their future cost of living. There is 2.5 Trillion in pension funding owed today, who will pay this, Bankrupt States, Municipalities, Unions, the Federal Government? Are you willing to gamble your future on the stability of this debt? Or is your future already depending on it? Will our legacy for our children and generations beyond be that they will live with a lower standard of living, and we were a generation of extravagant, wasteful, fools?

For most, they grew up thinking real estate had little or no risk. The reality that there is downside risk in real estate has hit them, as a generation, hard.

We all know a huge percentage of the Boomer generation has not saved enough money.

Looking forward, some of the most relevant results of the recent past will be the way they view their money. Their attitude about debt. Their attitude about investing in residential real estate has fundamentally changed. It is no longer viewed as a quick way to wealth; rather it is where they live. They have also realized that leverage or debt has plenty in common with a margin account used for trading stocks. Gambling with borrowed money. They have become far more cautious and conservative. Finances in most cases will dictate their lifestyle choices, including where they will live.

Objections, obstacles, and adversities create opportunities. They are nothing more than problems to be solved. Remember IBM thought the Personal Computer was a Stupid Idea! They ignored the future at their own peril. 

Yet not a single home builder in Mesquite offers a solar application of any kind in a standard package. They do not talk much about orientation to the sun or solar applications. Mesquite homebuilders took out 201 new home building permits in 2010. How many do you think are properly solar oriented?

Innovation and technology like shared geothermal systems for heating and cooling entire neighborhoods and solar energy are the future. Do you think electricity costs are going down? Have you heard about cap and trade? 

The level of consumer awareness about home energy consumption costs will continue to rise. It will become a higher priority for many future home buyers. Solar orientation has as much to do with cooling in the summer as it does with warming in winter months. Your home’s energy efficiency will eventually affect your homes value.

Undeveloped subdivisions platted and being re-platted and approved by The City of Mesquite meet many requirements, but no consideration is given to home site solar orientation. This will not happen without The City of Mesquite’s support. The City of Mesquite will need to take the lead and be committed. The home builders will not just do this, land use density or maximizing the number of homes they can build on a parcel of land will prevent them from laying out lots for maximum solar exposure.

Overton Power offers a Power Purchase Agreement to individuals. While this is becoming more common, it is not available in all markets.

This is not about “Green Thinking” rather smart financial planning for the future and marketing.

Solar applications such as home orientation, glass exposure, and overhang design do not necessarily increase cost to build. Yet they save money each month forever.

The systems to generate electricity and heat water add to initial cost, but right now, there may be numerous incentive and rebate programs, stimulus money!

Today for the most part, Mesquite looks like an example of how to best not utilize the sun’s power at all! 

Are there any new solar oriented homes in Mesquite’s future? 

Would people visit Mesquite just to see a solar home neighborhood?

Could Mesquite become a shinning example, attracting national attention?

Would affordable solar homes in Mesquite stimulate economic development? 

Are there solar oriented subdivisions in Mesquite’s future?

Ignoring the concepts of affordable self-sustaining housing as Mesquite grows is like ignoring the fact that the Baby Boom Generation are really retiring. Proper solar orientation keeps homes cooler during the hot summer, permanently reducing the need for expensive air conditioning.

As I see this, we can either lead or follow. It is a conscious choice that the people of Mesquite should discuss and provide feedback to The City of Mesquite. To be “solar certified” would require changes to existing building codes, and powerful tract home builders and developers will likely oppose any changes. Is Mesquite economic development moving in the direction you would like it to be?

The truth is home building technology has not changed much in fifty years. If not properly oriented an energy star rated home can still cost plenty to heat and cool. The sun can help change this.

Vacant land cost basis, five subdivisions sold, all up in the newer Mesquite Heights/ Canyon Crest area. They were a total of 223 acres and sold combined for $2,650,000 or $12,000 per acre. If the builder puts six homes per acre, that is an average cost basis of $2,000 per lot. This is deleveraging in action, lowering cost basis. Infrastructure and grading costs could bring this cost basis up to $30,000 per lot. This could be why only three single-family resale lots sold in 2010 with a median price of $71,000, per Mesquite MLS.

Real estate building and development can become the economic engine for Mesquite again. The target market may have changed, dictating innovation and product change. We must look forward and adjust to the new realities.

Old style conventional home builders in Mesquite have been too slow to embrace this land use and building concept. In my opinion, Mesquite’s future is far too important to leave it to builders and land developers to lead Mesquite into the future.

Is the type of Mesquite’s future land development, home building and growth an election issue? 

The average price of listed foreclosures is rising.

The distress is moving up the income chain. What started with sub prime borrowers, the loose money and bad loans actually reached consumers at all income levels.

The pain of losing a home has mostly been felt by the lower income and unemployed, so far.

Excessive debt to income ratios exists at all income levels. Stable higher income has given many the luxury of postponing the inevitable. The bigger they are the harder they fall, or so they say.

The headline is deceiving, “The average price of listed foreclosures is rising.” Sounds like good progress, rising average prices. It does not mean, what it sounds like.

What it really means is the more expensive homes and commercial property is moving through process of deleveraging. This process will continue until the imbalance in those debt ratios and values is brought back into balance. Over leveraged simple means more owed than the asset is worth, too much debt, not enough value.

Over leveraged can also apply to individuals, too many bills not enough income. The wealth effect in real estate caused many to over extend. When prices were rising, they spent like they were rich. While personal consumer debt rose, savings actually fell.

The burden of covering the financial loses from deleveraging will fall on the tax payers of the future. The government programs appear to me to making the issue worse, at best prolonging the pain. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will turn out to be liabilities for generations. Your great grand children will still be paying back the debt.

For those who will use the headline to spin the market, prices will likely continue to fall. We have not seen the bottom yet. The real estate economy is a symptom of the current social attitudes about image, debt, and materialism, just in case you are buying the spin.

Our narcissistic society is the American Dream gone wild. Our homes, cars, TVs, diamonds, on and on have to be bigger and better than the next guy. To the point we will mortgage our future, our kid’s futures and our grand kid’s futures to satisfy the insanity. Capitalism is not the problem, debt is the problem.

While European socialist financial systems fail, Fannie and Freddie’s unfunded bailout liabilities are adding billions now to the United States debt. We are printing away our Nation’s future opportunities, to cover the excesses of the recent past.

The only real way out is to reduce the debt, at all levels. It starts with personal financial responsibility and that includes your vote. The government does not belong in the business of lending money (Fannie, Freddie, HAMP), real estate, banking, the auto industry, health care, or any other business that can be run in free open markets. Open free markets that allow for failure and loss as well as opportunity and success are the only answer.

Generational theft to keep people in homes they could not afford to start with, to satisfy an “entitled point of view” must be stopped. We as a nation are going to have to learn to live within our means. The government can not save the value of your home; the government can not stabilize home prices, only open free market supply and demand.

I recently attended a meet the candidate’s forum. The question was raised, what about a social security means test, not just whether social security is taxable but how much you receive based on other total income and maybe net worth. The room was full of retirees and the candidate asked how many would oppose such an idea, virtually every hand went up.

The wealthiest generation in our Nation’s history may prove to be the greediest generation of our Nation’s history. They are clinging to a phony image and lifestyle at the expense of their children’s future. That is what I am talking about when I say personal financial responsibility. If you are accepting money you could do without, you are part of the problem.

In general they look down their noses at those in the so called entitlement programs, welfare and the like. Social security looks like a rat moving through a snake, except this time the rat will eat his way out. For the people in their 20’s and 30’s will that “security” be there for them, they are paying in.

So I say why not now, why not today’s recipients as well as tomorrow’s. Start today, reduce the debt, cut the entitlements, and build smaller homes, save more money. Whether the IMF is correct or not, that United States debt will exceed 100% of U.S. GDP by 2015, we can either start today or suffer worse consequences in the future. It is guaranteed.

We better all start today and we better all take it very personally; procrastination to deal with this painful process could kill our Great Nation.

Chris W. Miller

Land in Nevada

Independence Realty

Mesquite NV 89027

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties

Let’s start with the easy pieces, the edge pieces, the positive aspects of the current housing market.

Home sales are up in Mesquite, Nevada from 15 closings in January 2009 to 39 in January 2010, huge increase in closings. Price per square foot dropped from an average of $120 in January 2009 to $100 per square foot in January 2010. This was stimulated by Federal tax dollars in the form of tax buyer credits that would be your money!

Single family new home building permits are up in Mesquite from 1 in January 2009 to 22 in January 2010. That adds to the competitiveness of the market, the supply side.

Trying to keep it positive here, mortgage interest rates are still near historic lows.

The Home Builders Index of confidence rose 2 points to 17. A score of 50 or more on the index indicates that more builders view conditions as favorable rather than unfavorable.

Access Research & Consulting Inc. estimates that the number of mortgage brokerage firms is down from a peak of 53,000 in 2004 to less than 15,000; this may be a good thing.

Now we can start into the middle of the picture, the harder pieces of the puzzle.

Realty Trac reported January 2010 foreclosures were above 300,000 for the eleventh straight month, and up 15% from January last year. US Home ownership is back down to levels not seen since 2000.

Private mortgage insurance companies are dropping like moths flying into the flames of a blazing fire. Short sales and foreclosures are literally wiping them out.

Mortgage underwriting standards are getting tighter everyday, shrinking the pool of eligible qualified potential home buyers. Even FHA has made it tougher to qualify for a mortgage. This piece is part of the demand side.

By most industry estimates, there are eight million delinquent mortgages in the US today and only a very small percent of the mortgage modifications are actually working. The re-default rate continues to climb. Only 66,000 are considered permanent of 900,000 of those who are enrolled in trial modification programs.

3.4 million Homes in the Treasury Department’s Making Home Ownership Affordable (HAMP) are currently 60 days or more delinquent.

There are a half trillion dollars of mortgages still out there that will reset or adjust over the next twenty four months. Many of these homeowners are not prepared for the higher cost of housing headed their way.

The picture is coming together, but there are still some pieces missing.

The shadow inventory is out there in various forms, and the number of homes sitting vacant is at a historic high. Many are owned by institutions, others are owned by individuals, all are waiting for the market to improve. Then there are the sellers who would like to sell but can not or will not sell at current prices. At some point they will have to liquidate this inventory.

We should all hope Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the others will slowly ease this inventory into the market. Some industry experts believe it could take as long as three years for the market to absorb this shadow inventory of homes.

If they dump a wave or waves of distressed property into the market, it will drive down prices further and create a huge opportunity for those in a position to capitalize on the low prices.

The Federal Reserve’s 1.25 trillion dollar fund set up to buy mortgage backed securities is nearly spent. Without the support of this emergency fund, the secondary mortgage money market is bound to drive rates higher for consumers.

The effect of higher interest rates is to make housing less affordable and reduce the buyer pool, again reducing the demand side.

What the real estate market needs is jobs and time. Jobs will help people stay in the homes they currently own. Jobs will slow foreclosures, help mortgage modifications work, and create new demand.

Time will heal credit, time will clear inventory, and in time the market will find balance again.

Now step back and look close, with all the pieces of the puzzle in place. Where do you think the market will go over the next six months, twelve months, and twenty four months?

Remember Mesquite, Nevada is a prime retirement community with a very bright future offering a low tax structure, excellent weather with nearly constant sunshine, premiere golf courses, excellent outdoor opportunities, gaming and all located within an hour’s drive of Las Vegas.

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV 89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties

Home Buyers sitting on the Fence Should Know This

Currently FHA has been playing a large role in home mortgage lending. The relatively easy to qualify for and low down payment requirements have made FHA loans attractive to many of today’s home buyers, FHA Does not actually Loan money to home buyers, but insures lenders against default on loans that meet FHA criteria.

Some rules changes are on the way to FHA guidelines. They will include higher upfront insurance premium, current buyers pay 1.75% of the loan amount that will go to 2.25%, that will be the second increase in two years.

The current value of the FHA’s reserves to cover losses has fallen to $3.6 billion, less than.05% of the roughly $680 billion in loans outstanding, down from 3% a year earlier.

In addition the agency may ask for buyers to pay annual premiums. FHA runs a risk of coming up short and may be forced to go to congress to ask for a bail out of its own for the first time in history.

Today only a 3.5% down payment is required on FHA loans. There has been much criticism, that FHA is only prolonging the current crisis, and even creating a new bubble of buyers unable to afford the home they are buying.

There is speculation FHA will increase the required down payment to ten percent, this idea is supported by many housing analysts. As well reducing the amount sellers can contribute to the costs of sale for the buyer from 6% to 3%.

That seller’s contribution has undoubtedly lead to inflated pricing to give the seller the funds to pay the buyers costs. This artificial inflating of prices to allow people to buy homes by paying their down payments and closing costs sounds the reverse of what the market needs right now.

For now Mesquite Nevada real estate home buyers still have USDA financing available, a low down payment program. It could be gone with the 2010 census if we have grown above the 20,000 population mark.

Chris W. Miller has 33 years in the real estate industry, was trained and worked as a financial advisor for Morgan Stanley Dean Witter and currently specializes in Irrigated Nevada land with water rights with ERA Brokers Consolidated in Mesquite Nevada. He can be reached at 702-346-7200 or chris@mesquitemarket.com
Chris W. Miller

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV 89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties

A lender recently told me, 80% of the buyers he is pre-qualifying can not get a loan.

I have a nagging fear that our real estate markets as we have known them throughout the last 70 years will not be restored until the Federation gets back to its foundation. The nation was built on principles of individual liberty, individual responsibility, and free enterprise. As a democracy we elect officials to represent us, uphold the Constitution, and follow the laws, today they appear to be doing few of these things.

The majority of the money currently being loaned as mortgages is government backed, through FHA, HUD, USDA, VA and in the secondary markets of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae. Yes a conventional bank or mortgage broker may take your loan application but virtually all the loans are being sold into these government agencies. The private secondary mortgage market has become nearly non existent at current rates. Fannie and Freddie were not designed to be slush funds for bad decisions or funded long term by tax dollars. In order for the Mortgage companies to continue to lend at current rates the US government may have to EXPLICITLY guarantee these agency (MBS) Mortgage backed securities cash flow investments.

The government regulations have gone from “making homes affordable” think: Bush administration, ACORN, and the repeal of Glass-Steagall, although it goes back much further in history. To today’s consumer protection laws, making it much more difficult to get a loan. When the government exits the mortgage business, rates will go up.

The federal reserve has spent 1.122 trillion of the 1.25 trillion given it to buy (MBS), the program is scheduled to end March 2010, along with the “Home Buyers Tax Credits”. The federal reserve can keep rates low for the banks to make huge profits on short rates but it really has limited control of the ten year and longer end of the bond markets which effect mortgage rates more directly.

2.8 million Foreclosures hit the market in 2009. Fitch ratings have warned that in the next twenty four months another one half trillion dollars in prime, Alt-A, interest only, option arms, and sub prime mortgages will adjust or recast and many of these are middle and upper middle class families. Creating unsustainable payment shock for millions more Americans and millions more foreclosures. Distress in real estate tends to lead to more distress, and finding a bottom may involve unemployment numbers.

RealtyTrac says “No End in Sight”.

This is ALL about unsustainable debt, consumer debt, state level debt, federal level debt, and out of control spending.

Back to the start, the Federation is governed by laws; states are required to balance budgets, consumers are required to make mortgage payments or suffer the consequences. Our elected officials can not save home values, they can not keep people living in more home than they can afford, they can not put people in more home than they can afford and expect them to make it, and they can not modify people into a home they could never afford in the first place. They are throwing our good money after trillions in bad money. They, the elected officials, must be held accountable for bringing our children’s nation to the brink of bankruptcy.

When the dust finally settles and the unrealized losses are all on the books, the wealth effect in dollars lost will be staggering beyond any numbers currently being discussed, the effects will last generations. These losses will show up in places like pension funds of all kinds, 401k plans, other retirement accounts, sovereign wealth funds, and many of the world’s governments. States with budget deficits and falling tax revenues will be asked to cover more and more of the federal debt burden.

None of this is good for the current home price market today or tomorrow. The median price home sold in Mesquite during the forth quarter 2009 dropped to $192,063 or $118 per square foot. The median priced condo sold for $75,000 or $70 per square foot, and the median priced town home sold for $108,000 or $78 per square foot.

Ego, greed and monetary policy have taken us down the wrong path. Government intervention and efforts to manipulate the market created the environment for the crisis to occur; now it threatens to prolong and deepen the damage. We as a country must quit spending money we do not have, buying homes we can not afford, and curb government spending programs. And until we as a nation get back to a free and open market, principles of individual liberty, individual responsibility, and free enterprise, I believe recovery is unlikely.

Real recovery can only begin with honesty at every level, at home, in business, and most importantly at the government level. In my humble opinion we have little chance of any real sustainable financial recovery until we accept these facts and principles and then, act on them.

Expect real estate values to continue to drop more in 2010 due to the massive amount of distressed inventory of properties sitting out there and coming to the market.

Chris W. Miller has 33 years in the real estate industry, was trained and worked as a financial advisor for Morgan Stanley Dean Witter and currently specializes in Irrigated Nevada land with water rights with ERA Brokers Consolidated in Mesquite Nevada. He can be reached at 702-346-7200 or chris@mesquitemarket.com
Chris W. Miller

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV 89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties

Sales are up and prices are down and falling!

Beware of pending home sales numbers, the conversion rate from pending to actually closed transactions is falling daily as deals blow up. Pending short sales in general are not closing. When you hear pending home sales, it is a misleading indicator. 

In Mesquite we actually closed:

                                  Median Price                $ Per Square foot

39 Resale Homes         $192,400                         $113

13 New Homes             $208,984                        $125

15  Condos                    $87,500                          $77

29 Town Homes           $130,000                         $88

Total 93 closed sales     $150,900                         $99

43 of the total 93 were distressed properties.

229 listings went out of the active inventory as failed. Active available listed residential property remained stable at around 400 with over 60% vacant.

221 new listings were added to active and 85 of those were distressed properties, either short sales or bank owned (REO) foreclosures. Notice of defaults continues to increase.

2 vacant lots sold in Calais and averaged $125,000.

No commercial transactions closed. Vacancy remains at historic high rate in all categories

The market is averaging around twenty active resale listings at Sun City, but you would never know it since they do not allow signs, period, even inside your own window.

Over 50% of the current pending transactions are distressed properties. The banks are holding more and more real estate as defaults rise and individuals realize they are stuck as well. Unrealized bank losses are mounting as wealth evaporates.

The amount of shadow inventory is impossible to calculate. Based on unlisted bank owned property, defaults and failed listings, the number is far larger than the 400 active listings, maybe double.

Given the future uncertainty in taxation, health care costs, income, asset value growth, cost of living inflation, and home values retiring buyers have become increasingly cautious. The market is mainly being supported by high loan to value government backed FHA loans, and interest rate risk appears far greater than home price increases. Prices continue to fall.

There are seemingly good values available…….Buyer Beware!

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV  89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties

Today in the Mesquite Nevada real estate foreclosure and short sale market, one in every eight active residential listings is either a foreclosure or a short sale. There are 387 active residential listings and 52 are listed as short sale or bank owned foreclosure.

On the pending side we are seeing a trend developing in Mesquite Nevada foreclosures, out of the 31 currently in pending or “under contract” status, 10 are shown as bank owned foreclosure or short sales, one out of three.

Month to date 8 out of 19 pending residential units in the Mesquite Nevada MLS are listed as short sale or bank owned foreclosure, nearly half.

Mesquite Nevada is primarily a retirement golf community.  There are seven golf courses and number eight is under construction, a number of casinos, no state income taxes, and excellent weather.  Mesquite Nevada is located 90 miles northeast of Las Vegas, right on the Arizona state line.  The Arizona strip as it is called is the north rim of the Grand Canyon.

The proximity to Vegas and all the factors that make Mesquite Nevada so appealing to the retiring baby boomer generation, also lead to a great deal of speculative investing in Mesquite real estate. 

192 of the 377 active residential listings today are listed as sitting vacant, that is over half!

Not candidates for the bail out money, those investor properties.  Which leads me to believe that we will see more Mesquite Nevada bank owned foreclosures and short sale properties before we work our way through this mess. 

This trend is creating a very unusual opportunity. You have high vacancy, high inventory, falling prices, great supply choices, in an area that is well positioned for extreme future demand because of the retiring boomer generation. 

This very unusual combination that we have today in Mesquite Nevada real estate will not last forever.

It seems everyday someone asks me are we at the bottom? Since I do own a crystal ball, I offer this; we will not know where the bottom was until we are past it and prices begin to rise. If you find a property today that meets your needs and is within your budget, waiting is a risk.

At some point in the not too distant future, I believe that risk will out weigh the potential benefits. Some of these sale prices today are near the bottom.

The upside potential future for Mesquite Nevada real estate is real, based on the projected retirees and what they want. Mesquite Nevada is well positioned for the future demand and growth.

We will turn a corner and for many they will have waited too long and missed this opportunity.

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV  89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties   

For those who like to point to the Las Vegas market with “We hear sales are up”, the median resale single family home in Las Vegas sold for $162,999 or $96 per foot in December, according to Home Builders Research, Inc.

This number makes the 15 resale homes closed during the entire fourth quarter in Mesquite look pretty good at an average price of $248,027 or $143 per square foot. Unfortunately, this price is over 25 time’s fair market rent and over five times Mesquite median annual income, not good signs.

Realistically, the Vegas number is most likely a glimpse into the 2009 Mesquite Market numbers. The storm of foreclosures is on Mesquite’s horizon and moving in fast.

Mesquite MLS shows 25 new homes closed during this past quarter with an average price of $293,151 or $158 per square foot.

Sun City Mesquite had only 10 closings reported through the Mesquite MLS for the entire fourth quarter, and without adjusting for incentives the price averaged $145 per square foot or $240,827.

We closed 14 town home units averaging $129 per square foot and none above $300,000.

With nearly 100 active condo units for sale, only 5 sold and closed in the last 90 days of 2008.

The term “sticky prices” is clearly in play, but the buyers are not buying it. In other words sellers have yet to really drop prices and buyers are waiting. 

No commercial sites or commercial buildings closed during the fourth quarter 2008. By my estimate there may be as much as 300,000 square feet of vacant commercial/industrial space, yet 19 new commercial building permits were taken out during 2008. Many will require new permanent financing this year and it will be a real challenge for some given the current credit markets and vacancy rates.

The residential vacant land super pad or subdivision market has gone from bank foreclosures to FDIC owned through bank failure and seizure in some cases. Based on 378 new home building permits issued for the year of 2008, including Sun City there is over a 20 year supply of building lots. These values in some cases look like they may have fallen as much as 80% from 2005 prices.

All total including every residential category we closed 311 units during 2008 compared to 706 during 2005, that is 56% less sales. At the same time inventory of listed property for sale reached an all time high with over 400.

Another telling sign in the market is the failed listings during 2008, they reached 764. They went out of active inventory as expired, canceled, or withdrawn. The problem is that they are still out there and many are vacant or due to negative cash flow, must be sold.

2009 should be a year of opportunity and challenge.

Please remember if you are planning a visit and would like to discuss the Mesquite Market call ahead to let me know you are coming so we can schedule a few minutes.

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV  89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties

Mesquite NV real estate experienced the speculative frenzy and price run ups at close to its worst. High rates of false appreciation and flippers cashing big checks even before new homes were complete, causing market havoc. That market is gone. 

Today reality has set in and prices are falling, supply is at all time highs along with vacancy rates. Builders have walked away from whole neighborhoods and some look like gold rush ghost towns.

Land values, based on the supply of build-able residential and commercial sites available are headed south at unprecedented rates. The current supply will last for years.

Mesquite NV real estate fundamentals have not changed as far as desirability, weather, location, recreational amenities, taxes, etc. Retirees will continue to migrate to Mesquite, NV.

The Mesquite NV market does not hinge on the employment picture like many markets because most moving to Mesquite are not arriving looking for work. They arrive looking for the golf course and a nice place to go to dinner.

As 2009 unfolds Mesquite NV will continue the current trend to find balance between the extremes of the recent past and the budgets of tomorrows retirees. Land now owned by banks will come back into the market at a new more affordable cost basis.

Competition will continue to grow, Mesquite’s new home builders will continue to build and in some areas at even more affordable prices.

Smart buyers will find even better values as the market moves forward. The aging baby boomers are going to retire, guaranteeing Mesquite Nevada’s bright future.

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV  89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties

The twentieth century was one of the wettest going back several centuries.

University of Arizona scientist Connie Woodhouse said tree rings in the Colorado River basin indicate that the amount of moisture has fluctuated widely over hundreds of years, but has tended to be drier than was seen in the last 100 years.

California ranks No. 1 in population with 37 million people and No. 1 in agricultural output at $ 36.6 billion in 2007. At the present time there is not enough water to supply both those demands. California is facing the most significant water crisis in its history. June 2008, the governor declared a state wide drought.

A study released in February by the Scripps Institute of Oceanography in San Diego said there’s a 50 percent chance that Lake Mead could run dry by 2021. Several models by different scientist have made predictions about the future flow of the Colorado River, all of which forecast less water. The current usage is simply not sustainable said Tim Barnett, one of the Scripps study’s authors. “It’s a question of when,” he said. Lake Mead is the Las Vegas water supply.

If the drought continues until spring, California water officials there are planning to ration municipal water deliveries and dry up as much as 200,000 acres of farmland, according to AG Weekly 12/08/08. Without adequate water storage we are putting our food supply in jeopardy.

Land owners up and down the Virgin River Valley have either sold or leased nearly all the water rights in the Mesquite Valley to Southern Nevada Water Authority or Virgin Valley Water District. The fields will not be green next spring; there will be no hay to put up in Mesquite. The Virgin River feeds into Lake Mead.

Added value to land with water rights, and irrigated farm land in Nevada. Nevada state water laws date back 100 years and are very clear. Laws vary greatly from state to state, and the Colorado River serves seven states. The control, use and ownership of water rights will dictate future development.

Climate change is the wild card in all the predictions, the collision course between supply and demand is clear. Demand for food, and the future demographic population shifts are going to increase pressure. Increased storage capacity may be one of the answers for some areas. Limits on use and conservation will play increasingly bigger roles.

For information about land in Nevada currently available with water rights and irrigated farm land in Nevada. Call Chris

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV  89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties