Mesquite Market

I will give you all the market numbers here, but the real Million Dollar question is who will be Mesquite’s future housing target market and how much are they going to be willing and able to spend on their housing needs? If the numbers from 2010 are any indication, then $200,000 is the magic number for single-family home sales. Sound low? Consider this, Mesquite Nevada, may be at a crossroad.

Mesquite can continue down the path set some years back as a high end, wealthy, golf, and gaming lifestyle community with great weather. Mesquite did a good job developing this image, but times are changing and the market has changed. The higher end home market in Mesquite has not yet seen the worst of this market.

For those claiming the credit for Mesquite’s booming past, the truth is, Mesquite’s growth had a great deal to do with market timing, funny money, and the Palm Springs hype. At the same time, many builders took advantage and cut corners, in many cases, they were just too busy to pay attention to the details, in other cases just greedy or both, but the consumers and the market allowed this.

The high-end housing market is a very competitive and shrinking market. New homes being built today continue to get smaller nationally. While Mesquite has focused on expensive HOA’s, gated neighborhoods, streetscapes, and image, our competition is focusing on future cost saving efficiency and sustainable living. The City of Mesquite talks about economic development, but talk is cheap, and in my opinion, their efforts at economic development are stagnant at best and maybe taking the city backwards. More baseball fields will not restart the real estate engine that has driven Mesquite’s economy for many years.

“Will I Have Enough Money in Retirement?”  Very few baby boomers have not given this question considerable thought.

Even a free and clear home is not free to live in, homeowner association costs, taxes, insurance, maintenance, and utility costs all go on forever and will keep going up.

The boomers are just starting to retire this year and will be retiring at a pace of 8000 to 10,000 per day for the next nineteen years. These cost conscious retirees are Mesquite’s future target market.

Besides recent asset value losses and reduced personal net worth, they are concerned, if not living in fear about future health care costs, pension stability, social security, debt, inflation, and their future cost of living. If they are smart, they are deleveraging for retirement, not taking on more debt.

For most, they grew up thinking real estate had little or no risk. The reality that there is downside risk in real estate has hit them, as a generation, hard.

We all know a huge percentage of the baby boomer generation has not saved enough money.

Looking forward, some of the most relevant results of the recent past will be the way they view their money. Their attitude about debt. Their attitude about investing in residential real estate is fundamentally changing. It is no longer viewed as a quick way to wealth; rather it is where they live. They have also realized that leverage or debt has plenty in common with a margin account used for trading stocks. Basically, gambling with borrowed money. The days of flipping homes are gone, and affordability is now and will be in the future their focus. They have become far more cautious and conservative.

Finances in most cases will dictate their lifestyle choices, including where they will live.

Mesquite MLS showed 285 single family homes sold and closed with a median price of $184,900 for 1732 square feet or about $106 per square foot of heated space in 2010. Mesquite MLS as of mid January 2011 shows 355 active listed residential properties plus the unlisted new home supply, and Las Vegas MLS listed foreclosures, short sales, etc. There are likely well over 500 properties for sale today in Mesquite. 

Clark County records show 73 total sales at Sun City for 2010; this includes resales and new home Pulte Sun City sales. The most recent 2011-email marketing from Sun City shows 24 Spec homes in their current standing inventory, these have come down in price to an average of around $150 per square foot asking price. There are also currently per Mesquite MLS 29 listed resale homes at Sun City, with a median asking price of $254,900 or $147 per square foot. Pulte Del Webb expected to sell 50 homes per month when they opened the project 43 months ago; it looks like that projection is off by about 70%.

On the residential vacant land side, five distressed subdivisions sold, all up in the newer Mesquite Heights/ Canyon Crest area. They consisted of a total of 223 acres and sold combined for $2,650,000 or $12,000 per acre. If the builder puts six homes per acre, that is an average cost basis of $2,000 per lot. Infrastructure and grading costs could bring this cost basis up to $30,000 per lot. The lower cost basis in the land should allow for very affordable homes to be built, that is a Heads Up! This could also be why only three single-family resale lots sold with a median price of $71,000, in 2010 per Mesquite MLS. As if 10,000 to 12,000 vacant lots are not enough, the vacant land market just got much larger as the Mesquite City Council approved annexing around 5000 acres in Lincoln County into Mesquite’s City limits for future development.

The condominium market closed 142 units at a median price of $79,900 for 1130 square feet or $73 per square foot, per Mesquite MLS.

The town home market closed 126 units at a median price of $115,000 for 1360 square feet or $92 per square foot, per Mesquite MLS.

The City of Mesquite issued 201 new home building permits in 2010, which is nearly double the 105 issued in 2009.

The Clark County records full transfer and bank sold residential properties for 89027 and 89034, Mesquite and Sun City respectively showed combined 514 transactions in 2009 and 721 transactions in 2010. November 2010 there were 13 pages of Notice of Defaults filed in Mesquite or 37 housing units in one month. Also in November 2010, there were 39 residential units on the Notice of Sale report. The NOD and NOS numbers are tomorrow’s foreclosures and then future inventory. Based on this one month, there are well over twelve months supply in distress and likely headed to the market. This is shadow inventory!

Only 8 residential units were foreclosed on in November, these show up as sales in these full transfer and bank numbers and everyone was purchased by Fannie, Freddie, a holding company, or a bank. On these sales, they generally pay the amount of the outstanding loan, which is not current market value, and these sales can be used to manipulate the price numbers. Buyer beware of numbers, you had better understand what you are looking at.

These numbers also prove the continued reluctance on the part of the Banks, Holding companies, Fannie, Freddie, and FDIC to actually confront and deal with reality and this can only prolong the mess. I believe in fact, it is prolonging it and making it worse. Expect more short sales, strategic defaults, and foreclosures. This continued high level of market distress and the upcoming inventory/supply combined with the new home building supply will continue to put downward pressure on residential prices in 2011. I would guess for some years to come.

The current Obama administrations efforts at saving homeowners and preserving values, is a total failure and huge waste of tax dollars. They do appear to be making the Big Banks wealthy again.

No commercial buildings or land closed through Mesquite MLS in 2010. Yet 13 commercial building permits were issued in 2009 and another 9 in 2010. There is a huge amount of empty commercial space, office, retail, light industrial, and a huge amount of vacant commercial land in nearly all zoning categories. This market segment is still in for a serious reality check.

The Mesquite Market appears to be getting worse from a supply and demand point of view.

If you are considering shopping the Mesquite real estate market without the benefit of a buyer’s agent representing you and your best interests, you could be placing yourself at risk of making a serious financial mistake.

For more on agency and representation read     www.MesquiteMarket.com 

Let’s start with the easy pieces, the edge pieces, the positive aspects of the current housing market.

Home sales are up in Mesquite, Nevada from 15 closings in January 2009 to 39 in January 2010, huge increase in closings. Price per square foot dropped from an average of $120 in January 2009 to $100 per square foot in January 2010. This was stimulated by Federal tax dollars in the form of tax buyer credits that would be your money!

Single family new home building permits are up in Mesquite from 1 in January 2009 to 22 in January 2010. That adds to the competitiveness of the market, the supply side.

Trying to keep it positive here, mortgage interest rates are still near historic lows.

The Home Builders Index of confidence rose 2 points to 17. A score of 50 or more on the index indicates that more builders view conditions as favorable rather than unfavorable.

Access Research & Consulting Inc. estimates that the number of mortgage brokerage firms is down from a peak of 53,000 in 2004 to less than 15,000; this may be a good thing.

Now we can start into the middle of the picture, the harder pieces of the puzzle.

Realty Trac reported January 2010 foreclosures were above 300,000 for the eleventh straight month, and up 15% from January last year. US Home ownership is back down to levels not seen since 2000.

Private mortgage insurance companies are dropping like moths flying into the flames of a blazing fire. Short sales and foreclosures are literally wiping them out.

Mortgage underwriting standards are getting tighter everyday, shrinking the pool of eligible qualified potential home buyers. Even FHA has made it tougher to qualify for a mortgage. This piece is part of the demand side.

By most industry estimates, there are eight million delinquent mortgages in the US today and only a very small percent of the mortgage modifications are actually working. The re-default rate continues to climb. Only 66,000 are considered permanent of 900,000 of those who are enrolled in trial modification programs.

3.4 million Homes in the Treasury Department’s Making Home Ownership Affordable (HAMP) are currently 60 days or more delinquent.

There are a half trillion dollars of mortgages still out there that will reset or adjust over the next twenty four months. Many of these homeowners are not prepared for the higher cost of housing headed their way.

The picture is coming together, but there are still some pieces missing.

The shadow inventory is out there in various forms, and the number of homes sitting vacant is at a historic high. Many are owned by institutions, others are owned by individuals, all are waiting for the market to improve. Then there are the sellers who would like to sell but can not or will not sell at current prices. At some point they will have to liquidate this inventory.

We should all hope Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the others will slowly ease this inventory into the market. Some industry experts believe it could take as long as three years for the market to absorb this shadow inventory of homes.

If they dump a wave or waves of distressed property into the market, it will drive down prices further and create a huge opportunity for those in a position to capitalize on the low prices.

The Federal Reserve’s 1.25 trillion dollar fund set up to buy mortgage backed securities is nearly spent. Without the support of this emergency fund, the secondary mortgage money market is bound to drive rates higher for consumers.

The effect of higher interest rates is to make housing less affordable and reduce the buyer pool, again reducing the demand side.

What the real estate market needs is jobs and time. Jobs will help people stay in the homes they currently own. Jobs will slow foreclosures, help mortgage modifications work, and create new demand.

Time will heal credit, time will clear inventory, and in time the market will find balance again.

Now step back and look close, with all the pieces of the puzzle in place. Where do you think the market will go over the next six months, twelve months, and twenty four months?

Remember Mesquite, Nevada is a prime retirement community with a very bright future offering a low tax structure, excellent weather with nearly constant sunshine, premiere golf courses, excellent outdoor opportunities, gaming and all located within an hour’s drive of Las Vegas.

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV 89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties

Home Buyers sitting on the Fence Should Know This

Currently FHA has been playing a large role in home mortgage lending. The relatively easy to qualify for and low down payment requirements have made FHA loans attractive to many of today’s home buyers, FHA Does not actually Loan money to home buyers, but insures lenders against default on loans that meet FHA criteria.

Some rules changes are on the way to FHA guidelines. They will include higher upfront insurance premium, current buyers pay 1.75% of the loan amount that will go to 2.25%, that will be the second increase in two years.

The current value of the FHA’s reserves to cover losses has fallen to $3.6 billion, less than.05% of the roughly $680 billion in loans outstanding, down from 3% a year earlier.

In addition the agency may ask for buyers to pay annual premiums. FHA runs a risk of coming up short and may be forced to go to congress to ask for a bail out of its own for the first time in history.

Today only a 3.5% down payment is required on FHA loans. There has been much criticism, that FHA is only prolonging the current crisis, and even creating a new bubble of buyers unable to afford the home they are buying.

There is speculation FHA will increase the required down payment to ten percent, this idea is supported by many housing analysts. As well reducing the amount sellers can contribute to the costs of sale for the buyer from 6% to 3%.

That seller’s contribution has undoubtedly lead to inflated pricing to give the seller the funds to pay the buyers costs. This artificial inflating of prices to allow people to buy homes by paying their down payments and closing costs sounds the reverse of what the market needs right now.

For now Mesquite Nevada real estate home buyers still have USDA financing available, a low down payment program. It could be gone with the 2010 census if we have grown above the 20,000 population mark.

Chris W. Miller has 33 years in the real estate industry, was trained and worked as a financial advisor for Morgan Stanley Dean Witter and currently specializes in Irrigated Nevada land with water rights with ERA Brokers Consolidated in Mesquite Nevada. He can be reached at 702-346-7200 or chris@mesquitemarket.com
Chris W. Miller

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV 89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties

A lender recently told me, 80% of the buyers he is pre-qualifying can not get a loan.

I have a nagging fear that our real estate markets as we have known them throughout the last 70 years will not be restored until the Federation gets back to its foundation. The nation was built on principles of individual liberty, individual responsibility, and free enterprise. As a democracy we elect officials to represent us, uphold the Constitution, and follow the laws, today they appear to be doing few of these things.

The majority of the money currently being loaned as mortgages is government backed, through FHA, HUD, USDA, VA and in the secondary markets of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae. Yes a conventional bank or mortgage broker may take your loan application but virtually all the loans are being sold into these government agencies. The private secondary mortgage market has become nearly non existent at current rates. Fannie and Freddie were not designed to be slush funds for bad decisions or funded long term by tax dollars. In order for the Mortgage companies to continue to lend at current rates the US government may have to EXPLICITLY guarantee these agency (MBS) Mortgage backed securities cash flow investments.

The government regulations have gone from “making homes affordable” think: Bush administration, ACORN, and the repeal of Glass-Steagall, although it goes back much further in history. To today’s consumer protection laws, making it much more difficult to get a loan. When the government exits the mortgage business, rates will go up.

The federal reserve has spent 1.122 trillion of the 1.25 trillion given it to buy (MBS), the program is scheduled to end March 2010, along with the “Home Buyers Tax Credits”. The federal reserve can keep rates low for the banks to make huge profits on short rates but it really has limited control of the ten year and longer end of the bond markets which effect mortgage rates more directly.

2.8 million Foreclosures hit the market in 2009. Fitch ratings have warned that in the next twenty four months another one half trillion dollars in prime, Alt-A, interest only, option arms, and sub prime mortgages will adjust or recast and many of these are middle and upper middle class families. Creating unsustainable payment shock for millions more Americans and millions more foreclosures. Distress in real estate tends to lead to more distress, and finding a bottom may involve unemployment numbers.

RealtyTrac says “No End in Sight”.

This is ALL about unsustainable debt, consumer debt, state level debt, federal level debt, and out of control spending.

Back to the start, the Federation is governed by laws; states are required to balance budgets, consumers are required to make mortgage payments or suffer the consequences. Our elected officials can not save home values, they can not keep people living in more home than they can afford, they can not put people in more home than they can afford and expect them to make it, and they can not modify people into a home they could never afford in the first place. They are throwing our good money after trillions in bad money. They, the elected officials, must be held accountable for bringing our children’s nation to the brink of bankruptcy.

When the dust finally settles and the unrealized losses are all on the books, the wealth effect in dollars lost will be staggering beyond any numbers currently being discussed, the effects will last generations. These losses will show up in places like pension funds of all kinds, 401k plans, other retirement accounts, sovereign wealth funds, and many of the world’s governments. States with budget deficits and falling tax revenues will be asked to cover more and more of the federal debt burden.

None of this is good for the current home price market today or tomorrow. The median price home sold in Mesquite during the forth quarter 2009 dropped to $192,063 or $118 per square foot. The median priced condo sold for $75,000 or $70 per square foot, and the median priced town home sold for $108,000 or $78 per square foot.

Ego, greed and monetary policy have taken us down the wrong path. Government intervention and efforts to manipulate the market created the environment for the crisis to occur; now it threatens to prolong and deepen the damage. We as a country must quit spending money we do not have, buying homes we can not afford, and curb government spending programs. And until we as a nation get back to a free and open market, principles of individual liberty, individual responsibility, and free enterprise, I believe recovery is unlikely.

Real recovery can only begin with honesty at every level, at home, in business, and most importantly at the government level. In my humble opinion we have little chance of any real sustainable financial recovery until we accept these facts and principles and then, act on them.

Expect real estate values to continue to drop more in 2010 due to the massive amount of distressed inventory of properties sitting out there and coming to the market.

Chris W. Miller has 33 years in the real estate industry, was trained and worked as a financial advisor for Morgan Stanley Dean Witter and currently specializes in Irrigated Nevada land with water rights with ERA Brokers Consolidated in Mesquite Nevada. He can be reached at 702-346-7200 or chris@mesquitemarket.com
Chris W. Miller

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV 89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties

In May of 2007 we had no shadow inventory, virtually everything listed was sold including the few foreclosures and banks were not holding them back off the market at that time.

Many questions surround this so called shadow inventory supply of housing; some even dismiss the idea as a scare tactic and illusion. Market facts are as varied as there are markets; many markets that did not experience the extreme boom are relatively healthy while others continue to get sicker. This information is definitely market specific.

Mesquite Nevada real estate statistics since May of 2007 show a steady, dramatic, and continual climb in failed listings. These properties were active for sale and did not sell and are not actively for sale today. Yet the reasons for needing to sell and the needs of seller’s in most cases have not changed. In many cases the urgency to sell has only increased. How many people do you know who have put off putting their home on the market until the market improves and how long can they wait?

Notice of defaults, those falling at least ninety days behind on their mortgage payments has spiked to its highest level in the second half of 2009. Many of these will become short sales or foreclosed bank owned properties. They have to be sold and are not currently listed as active.

Foreclosures and bank owned vacant properties in Mesquite NV continue to climb and the banks are not listing them. They appear to be holding them waiting for either a dramatic market change or more likely a change in government regulations regarding asset values and bank solvency. Realized verses unrealized losses on the books of the banks. They may actually believe they can release these at a pace they can control prices, manipulate the market, I know they have not acted rationally but this would be off the scale of stupid.

Today there are around 400 active listings in the town with a population of 18,000 or so of primarily retirees, at 2 per household that’s around 9000 homes and condos. The shadow inventory is much harder to count. You have normal live changes that lead to people moving, health, death, jobs, family size changes, etc.

When you add in the mortgage loan resets, those arm loan adjustments where the payments increase, the walk a ways from the under water syndrome, moral or not, it is becoming far more common, and the very high unemployment. Mesquite NV real estate is unique in that most of the people living here purchased either at the beginning of the boom or during and so nearly all paid more than they can net from selling today. Under water whether by mortgage or just cash loss.

Based on vacancy rates, notices of defaults, Mesquite’s foreclosure filings, 400 active listings, builders inventories not listed, there may be as many 800 or 900 properties coming available. 2009 was a descent year for number of sales, MLS shows 365 closed as of December 31, 2009 for the year. It was not so good for prices the average sold price was $110 per square foot. That number dropped to $89 per foot in December 2009.

At the absorption rate of 365 per year, it could take until 2012 just to clear the inventory sitting out there today. This of course does not consider new builder competition, which with Sun City in town and plenty of new choices coming soon in Canyon Crest, is going to remain fierce. Supply and demand will dictate pricing.

I believe there is another possibly more important factor driving demand. During the boom years the emphases was “A Rich Rewarding Lifestyle”, “The Next Palm Springs” was often heard around the city halls. Many larger and expensive homes were built. The bulk of the market selling to today is the lower end smaller more efficient homes. Expensive gated HOAs and the higher end housing sector is really being hit hard on pricing. The 2009 Median price for all housing sold and closed in Mesquite, NV was $165,000. If you are builder there is a target number for you.

The retirees of tomorrow are focused on preservation of capital, conservation, comfort, and affordability. Few are going to extend themselves beyond their budgets, and most will try to stay in a comfort zone which will allow for more than living month to month just making house payments. The days of Baby Boomer’s spending like they are the wealthy class may be gone forever. Bankruptcies have shot through the roof and will continue to go up well into 2010.

Mesquite Nevada’s real estate challenge ahead will involve working our way out the hole we currently in, and that could take two to three years. Most importantly though Mesquite’s challenge will be to bring a product to the market in the future that will meet the needs of this retiring generation. Affordable housing must top the list of priorities (think $110 per square foot), solar orientation, efficiency, comfort and livability.

Some may say that Mesquite was built by the wealthy for the wealthy and must remain that way; I say if that be the case it is going to become a mighty lonely place around here.

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV 89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties

There are currently only 12 active commercial buildings listed in the Mesquite MLS, and only 18 commercial land parcels listed active for sale in the Mesquite MLS. Commercial real estate is listed and generalized into these two categories in the Mesquite MLS. I have focused on the improvements, not the vacant land and attempted to break it down for you by highest and best use. There are some properties that do fall into more than one category.

After a careful physical review it appears that there are closer to 30 buildings available for sale or lease, and 45 commercial land parcels for sale or with an option to lease with build to suit in some cases.

Business closings have been dramatic over the past twenty four months, in the neighborhood of 30 have closed and are gone, including a large casino, numerous restaurants, retail shops, builders, associated contractors, suppliers, title companies, and various other small businesses.

In general, in retail space the vacancy rates range from 100% to as little as 20% per complex, virtually none are 100% occupied. The overall vacancy rate in Mesquite for retail space appears to be running between 40 to 50% of available space. There are between 50 and 70 vacant retail spaces, depending on space size. A vacant 8000 square foot building could count as one space or four units. I would guess there is between 100,000 and 120,000 square feet of idle retail space in the market.

Light industrial space may be worse than retail space in terms of vacancy rates, at least nine buildings are 100% vacant with close to 125,000 square feet of idle space. Then there are another ten to twelve buildings with some vacancy. My best guess is these have another 30,000 to 50,000 feet of idle unoccupied space. There may be as much as 175,000 square feet of vacant light industrial space.

Falcon Mesa Business Park Complex, this complex is a combination of office and retail multi purpose use. Seven of 13 of the total buildings appear to be vacant. When a building was half occupied, I have counted that as half and included these buildings in the above mentioned vacant retail square footage.

The Town and Country Plaza on Pioneer Blvd. has seven tenants, all retail except AG Edwards which is the only office space leased. These early tenants are paying close to $1.50 per foot, but I believe that future new tenants may get a better rate. My best guess is that it is 20% retail and 5% office space occupied. The owner is motivated and very negotiable but will not commit to any numbers without a face to face meeting with the prospect.

The Oasis Professional Office Park at Pinnacle and Oasis Blvd has eleven buildings total and 6 appear to be vacant and for sale or lease. The Brickyard on Mesquite Blvd appears to have ten vacant spaces out of a total of approximately 30.

The 100% vacant buildings in Mesquite include, 175 and 195 Willis Carrier Canyon (40,000 Sq. Ft each), Capital Materials Building 6200 Sq. Ft on 2.58 acres with yard and pole barns, two buildings located in front of Capital Materials Buildings, Calais clubhouse building, office building located in front of Calais clubhouse, Cinco Office building at 4200 Sq. Ft., Harley’s Auto Repair shop on Mesquite Blvd, Rio Virgin Grill Restaurant, Credit Union building on Pioneer in front of Wal-Mart, Walgreen’s Building on corner of Falcon Ridge and Pioneer, Buffalos Restaurant, Wolf Creek Office Building, Convention Center Building, NAPA auto building on Mesquite Blvd, 6000 warehouse on Aztec, 4800 tilt up building at corner of Hardy Way and Bowler, a Building East of Sears. There are a few others but this gives you a sense of the magnitude.

There is vacancy in every commercial complex and as I talked to leasing agents and building owners there was one clear theme, they are begging for people who will pay $1 to $1.50 per foot. They all offer possible tenant improvements with two to five year leases. They hint at possible lower rates, but when pressed, the lowest offer I got was a possible .50 per foot from an agent who would have to ask and see. Many of these buildings have no tenant improvements and have been vacant for over two years.

If building owners are giving away expensive tenant improvements, free months rent, paying taxes, insurance, and CAM fees, then the net is far less than current asking rents.

We have not really seen price reductions in asking prices or lease rates. The owners continue to hire agents who are inexperienced with little or no commercial background who will tell the owners only what they want to hear. I would liken it to taking a dangerous river rafting trip with a guide who knows less about rafting, the river and current conditions than you do, risky at best. They list property with no facts to support prices and at reduced commission rates, most CCIM or experienced commercial agents basically refuse to waste their time with amateur agents and over priced properties.

Appraisers call me frequently looking for comps and since there are no comps in over two years I suggest they use a capitalization approach. Of course that leads to a fair market rents discussion. In my opinion, over the next few years until Mesquite grows into the supply .40 to .60 cents a foot will be the going rate. At an 8% cap rate and .50 cents a foot the average asking price is on average about twice the actual market value. Of course the owners and listing agents are sure this approach makes no sense at all.

There is much speculation in the market about the potential effects of the Desert Falls Sports Complex; it is being used by many as justification for future values. It remains to be seen if it will ever materialize. Until it does I would say “What you see is what you get”

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV 89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties

Sales are up and prices are down and falling!

Beware of pending home sales numbers, the conversion rate from pending to actually closed transactions is falling daily as deals blow up. Pending short sales in general are not closing. When you hear pending home sales, it is a misleading indicator. 

In Mesquite we actually closed:

                                  Median Price                $ Per Square foot

39 Resale Homes         $192,400                         $113

13 New Homes             $208,984                        $125

15  Condos                    $87,500                          $77

29 Town Homes           $130,000                         $88

Total 93 closed sales     $150,900                         $99

43 of the total 93 were distressed properties.

229 listings went out of the active inventory as failed. Active available listed residential property remained stable at around 400 with over 60% vacant.

221 new listings were added to active and 85 of those were distressed properties, either short sales or bank owned (REO) foreclosures. Notice of defaults continues to increase.

2 vacant lots sold in Calais and averaged $125,000.

No commercial transactions closed. Vacancy remains at historic high rate in all categories

The market is averaging around twenty active resale listings at Sun City, but you would never know it since they do not allow signs, period, even inside your own window.

Over 50% of the current pending transactions are distressed properties. The banks are holding more and more real estate as defaults rise and individuals realize they are stuck as well. Unrealized bank losses are mounting as wealth evaporates.

The amount of shadow inventory is impossible to calculate. Based on unlisted bank owned property, defaults and failed listings, the number is far larger than the 400 active listings, maybe double.

Given the future uncertainty in taxation, health care costs, income, asset value growth, cost of living inflation, and home values retiring buyers have become increasingly cautious. The market is mainly being supported by high loan to value government backed FHA loans, and interest rate risk appears far greater than home price increases. Prices continue to fall.

There are seemingly good values available…….Buyer Beware!

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV  89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties

Today in Mesquite Nevada real estate there are a record number of institution owned properties, a record number of notice of defaults being filed, and a record number of foreclosures taking place. This year has steadily recorded monthly records for failed listings, and the new record grows each month. All those failed listings are all still out there and will eventually need to be sold.

Never in the history of Mesquite real estate  has the market seen distressed numbers even close to what is taking place right now. Sales prices conitnue to drop.

The number of listed vacant properties is close to 60% of the total listings. Property management companies are reporting record vacancy rates for the properties they manage, and rents are dropping.

The institutions (BANKS) seem to be holding inventory back off the market. No one knows the motivation for hoarding vacant deteriorating real estate, but it sure looks like that is exactly what they are doing.

While some agents will spin the market and push the “buy now or risk missing out” pitch, the truth appears to be quite the contrary. No wonder consumers view our industry with distrust and contempt.

Now is a great time to buy if; it fits your needs, budget, time frame, and you have done your homework.

Tomorrow will also be a great time to buy. When the institutions do start dumping that inventory, it might even be a better time to buy. If you plan to buy but are not ready yet, relax.

Find yourself an agent that will talk to you about the market honestly, learn the market numbers yourself, paying particular attention to prices per square foot.

For the buyers the best is likely yet to come.

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV  89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties

Mesquite Market Quarterly
First Quarter 2009
By Chris W. Miller ABR, CRS, GRI

New trends give a clear view of where the market is going.

Mesquite Nevada MLS recorded a total of 65 residential closings during the first quarter, 22 of these were bank owned or short sales 33.8%.  207 residential listings were submitted and 247 went out of the system as failed listings.

We closed a total of 41 single family homes and 13 of those were bank owned or short, the 13 distressed home sales averaged $111 per square foot. Of the 41 closed single family homes was 24 existing or resales at $122 per foot, 17 new homes at $162 per foot.

There are already 20 resale home listings available at Sun City Mesquite.  The Mesquite MLS only recorded a total of 7 closings during the first quarter at the new Pulte Del Webb project, that includes new and resale homes, those 7 sales averaged $159 per foot.

8 condominiums closed at an average of $99 per foot, 15 town homes closed at an average price of $118 per square foot, and 2 vacant residential building lots sold.   3 homes sold and closed in Bunkerville and they averaged $93 per square foot.

On March 31, 2009, at the end of this past quarter 44% of the pending transactions in the Mesquite MLS were listed as distressed properties, either REO or short.  Failed listings which are still out and most must be sold sooner or later exceeded pendings on a 5 to 1 basis this past quarter; many will turn to distressed properties.

Based on the past quarter sales and the current active listed properties there are 22 months of single family homes, 46 months of condos, 19 months of town homes, and years worth of building lots.  It looks like there is on average about a two year supply sitting on the market, plus another year’s worth of inactive and vacant.

At this time around 255 of the 430 active listings are listed as vacant, about 60% are sitting empty, no cash flow.

There are still many people living in homes they can not afford and they are under water. A wave of distressed properties, yet to come to the market.

While many agents, the government, and the media spread the rumor that the market is improving!   Buyer Beware has never rang louder.

There are 13 commercial buildings and 16 commercial land parcels actively listed for sale and many more available but not listed. No commercial buildings or land closed. While it is hard to measure, it looks like there is well over 300,000 square feet of vacant commercial office/retail/industrial space sitting vacant.

The City of Mesquite building department issued 6 permits for new commercial buildings and 19 permits for residential buildings during the first quarter 2009.

The typical buyer profile coming to Mesquite today is a far more cautious and conservative retiree.  They have been slapped hard with the reality that neither the stock market nor the real estate markets always go in one direction. Many have seen a huge chunk of their nest egg disappear in both markets.

The current environment has them in fear of their financial future, out living their savings. Uncertainty about government spending, bail outs, health care costs, rising cost of living (inflation), income stability and net worth are all potentially paralyzing for buyers.

There seems to be an uneasy sense with the retirees that the government is reaching too deeply into the pocket of our capitalist free enterprise system. There is little security anywhere. It is affecting consumer sentiment and confidence.

The market correction is far from over and for Mesquite it is a reality check. If we are to attract the greener more conservative baby boomers we will need to adapt.

Affordability, efficiency, and value will have to lead us out. What worked over the past ten years, business as usual will not cut it.   This is not unique to Mesquite, most every business model out there is changing the way they do business or like our auto industries they will be reorganized.

After the high flying years of loose money and bad decisions, deleveraging is taking place. Asset values are falling and this will continue until the market gets back to fundamentals that work.  Vacancy rates will not go down until business can afford the rents. Buyers will not buy homes they can not afford.

Debt to income ratios must get back to closer to 28% and 35%, or prices in the range of 2.5 to 3.5 times annual income. As we have seen, 5 times annual income as a purchase price generally does not work. Debt is strangling the entire economy.

This melt down of the financial system is all about excessive unmanageable debt, over leveraged, and wildly over valued assets.  Consumer sentiment or confidence is not the cause; it is the artificially inflated values. Lower prices and market stagnation are the results we are seeing.

Affordability is not a concept, it is reality.

Mesquite Nevada has a bright future and the current market is beginning to create opportunities for knowledgeable buyers.

For square footage numbers in specific neighborhoods, questions, or comments

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV  89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties

Today in the Mesquite Nevada real estate foreclosure and short sale market, one in every eight active residential listings is either a foreclosure or a short sale. There are 387 active residential listings and 52 are listed as short sale or bank owned foreclosure.

On the pending side we are seeing a trend developing in Mesquite Nevada foreclosures, out of the 31 currently in pending or “under contract” status, 10 are shown as bank owned foreclosure or short sales, one out of three.

Month to date 8 out of 19 pending residential units in the Mesquite Nevada MLS are listed as short sale or bank owned foreclosure, nearly half.

Mesquite Nevada is primarily a retirement golf community.  There are seven golf courses and number eight is under construction, a number of casinos, no state income taxes, and excellent weather.  Mesquite Nevada is located 90 miles northeast of Las Vegas, right on the Arizona state line.  The Arizona strip as it is called is the north rim of the Grand Canyon.

The proximity to Vegas and all the factors that make Mesquite Nevada so appealing to the retiring baby boomer generation, also lead to a great deal of speculative investing in Mesquite real estate. 

192 of the 377 active residential listings today are listed as sitting vacant, that is over half!

Not candidates for the bail out money, those investor properties.  Which leads me to believe that we will see more Mesquite Nevada bank owned foreclosures and short sale properties before we work our way through this mess. 

This trend is creating a very unusual opportunity. You have high vacancy, high inventory, falling prices, great supply choices, in an area that is well positioned for extreme future demand because of the retiring boomer generation. 

This very unusual combination that we have today in Mesquite Nevada real estate will not last forever.

It seems everyday someone asks me are we at the bottom? Since I do own a crystal ball, I offer this; we will not know where the bottom was until we are past it and prices begin to rise. If you find a property today that meets your needs and is within your budget, waiting is a risk.

At some point in the not too distant future, I believe that risk will out weigh the potential benefits. Some of these sale prices today are near the bottom.

The upside potential future for Mesquite Nevada real estate is real, based on the projected retirees and what they want. Mesquite Nevada is well positioned for the future demand and growth.

We will turn a corner and for many they will have waited too long and missed this opportunity.

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV  89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties