Mesquite Market

Let’s start with the easy pieces, the edge pieces, the positive aspects of the current housing market.

Home sales are up in Mesquite, Nevada from 15 closings in January 2009 to 39 in January 2010, huge increase in closings. Price per square foot dropped from an average of $120 in January 2009 to $100 per square foot in January 2010. This was stimulated by Federal tax dollars in the form of tax buyer credits that would be your money!

Single family new home building permits are up in Mesquite from 1 in January 2009 to 22 in January 2010. That adds to the competitiveness of the market, the supply side.

Trying to keep it positive here, mortgage interest rates are still near historic lows.

The Home Builders Index of confidence rose 2 points to 17. A score of 50 or more on the index indicates that more builders view conditions as favorable rather than unfavorable.

Access Research & Consulting Inc. estimates that the number of mortgage brokerage firms is down from a peak of 53,000 in 2004 to less than 15,000; this may be a good thing.

Now we can start into the middle of the picture, the harder pieces of the puzzle.

Realty Trac reported January 2010 foreclosures were above 300,000 for the eleventh straight month, and up 15% from January last year. US Home ownership is back down to levels not seen since 2000.

Private mortgage insurance companies are dropping like moths flying into the flames of a blazing fire. Short sales and foreclosures are literally wiping them out.

Mortgage underwriting standards are getting tighter everyday, shrinking the pool of eligible qualified potential home buyers. Even FHA has made it tougher to qualify for a mortgage. This piece is part of the demand side.

By most industry estimates, there are eight million delinquent mortgages in the US today and only a very small percent of the mortgage modifications are actually working. The re-default rate continues to climb. Only 66,000 are considered permanent of 900,000 of those who are enrolled in trial modification programs.

3.4 million Homes in the Treasury Department’s Making Home Ownership Affordable (HAMP) are currently 60 days or more delinquent.

There are a half trillion dollars of mortgages still out there that will reset or adjust over the next twenty four months. Many of these homeowners are not prepared for the higher cost of housing headed their way.

The picture is coming together, but there are still some pieces missing.

The shadow inventory is out there in various forms, and the number of homes sitting vacant is at a historic high. Many are owned by institutions, others are owned by individuals, all are waiting for the market to improve. Then there are the sellers who would like to sell but can not or will not sell at current prices. At some point they will have to liquidate this inventory.

We should all hope Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the others will slowly ease this inventory into the market. Some industry experts believe it could take as long as three years for the market to absorb this shadow inventory of homes.

If they dump a wave or waves of distressed property into the market, it will drive down prices further and create a huge opportunity for those in a position to capitalize on the low prices.

The Federal Reserve’s 1.25 trillion dollar fund set up to buy mortgage backed securities is nearly spent. Without the support of this emergency fund, the secondary mortgage money market is bound to drive rates higher for consumers.

The effect of higher interest rates is to make housing less affordable and reduce the buyer pool, again reducing the demand side.

What the real estate market needs is jobs and time. Jobs will help people stay in the homes they currently own. Jobs will slow foreclosures, help mortgage modifications work, and create new demand.

Time will heal credit, time will clear inventory, and in time the market will find balance again.

Now step back and look close, with all the pieces of the puzzle in place. Where do you think the market will go over the next six months, twelve months, and twenty four months?

Remember Mesquite, Nevada is a prime retirement community with a very bright future offering a low tax structure, excellent weather with nearly constant sunshine, premiere golf courses, excellent outdoor opportunities, gaming and all located within an hour’s drive of Las Vegas.

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV 89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties

There are currently only 12 active commercial buildings listed in the Mesquite MLS, and only 18 commercial land parcels listed active for sale in the Mesquite MLS. Commercial real estate is listed and generalized into these two categories in the Mesquite MLS. I have focused on the improvements, not the vacant land and attempted to break it down for you by highest and best use. There are some properties that do fall into more than one category.

After a careful physical review it appears that there are closer to 30 buildings available for sale or lease, and 45 commercial land parcels for sale or with an option to lease with build to suit in some cases.

Business closings have been dramatic over the past twenty four months, in the neighborhood of 30 have closed and are gone, including a large casino, numerous restaurants, retail shops, builders, associated contractors, suppliers, title companies, and various other small businesses.

In general, in retail space the vacancy rates range from 100% to as little as 20% per complex, virtually none are 100% occupied. The overall vacancy rate in Mesquite for retail space appears to be running between 40 to 50% of available space. There are between 50 and 70 vacant retail spaces, depending on space size. A vacant 8000 square foot building could count as one space or four units. I would guess there is between 100,000 and 120,000 square feet of idle retail space in the market.

Light industrial space may be worse than retail space in terms of vacancy rates, at least nine buildings are 100% vacant with close to 125,000 square feet of idle space. Then there are another ten to twelve buildings with some vacancy. My best guess is these have another 30,000 to 50,000 feet of idle unoccupied space. There may be as much as 175,000 square feet of vacant light industrial space.

Falcon Mesa Business Park Complex, this complex is a combination of office and retail multi purpose use. Seven of 13 of the total buildings appear to be vacant. When a building was half occupied, I have counted that as half and included these buildings in the above mentioned vacant retail square footage.

The Town and Country Plaza on Pioneer Blvd. has seven tenants, all retail except AG Edwards which is the only office space leased. These early tenants are paying close to $1.50 per foot, but I believe that future new tenants may get a better rate. My best guess is that it is 20% retail and 5% office space occupied. The owner is motivated and very negotiable but will not commit to any numbers without a face to face meeting with the prospect.

The Oasis Professional Office Park at Pinnacle and Oasis Blvd has eleven buildings total and 6 appear to be vacant and for sale or lease. The Brickyard on Mesquite Blvd appears to have ten vacant spaces out of a total of approximately 30.

The 100% vacant buildings in Mesquite include, 175 and 195 Willis Carrier Canyon (40,000 Sq. Ft each), Capital Materials Building 6200 Sq. Ft on 2.58 acres with yard and pole barns, two buildings located in front of Capital Materials Buildings, Calais clubhouse building, office building located in front of Calais clubhouse, Cinco Office building at 4200 Sq. Ft., Harley’s Auto Repair shop on Mesquite Blvd, Rio Virgin Grill Restaurant, Credit Union building on Pioneer in front of Wal-Mart, Walgreen’s Building on corner of Falcon Ridge and Pioneer, Buffalos Restaurant, Wolf Creek Office Building, Convention Center Building, NAPA auto building on Mesquite Blvd, 6000 warehouse on Aztec, 4800 tilt up building at corner of Hardy Way and Bowler, a Building East of Sears. There are a few others but this gives you a sense of the magnitude.

There is vacancy in every commercial complex and as I talked to leasing agents and building owners there was one clear theme, they are begging for people who will pay $1 to $1.50 per foot. They all offer possible tenant improvements with two to five year leases. They hint at possible lower rates, but when pressed, the lowest offer I got was a possible .50 per foot from an agent who would have to ask and see. Many of these buildings have no tenant improvements and have been vacant for over two years.

If building owners are giving away expensive tenant improvements, free months rent, paying taxes, insurance, and CAM fees, then the net is far less than current asking rents.

We have not really seen price reductions in asking prices or lease rates. The owners continue to hire agents who are inexperienced with little or no commercial background who will tell the owners only what they want to hear. I would liken it to taking a dangerous river rafting trip with a guide who knows less about rafting, the river and current conditions than you do, risky at best. They list property with no facts to support prices and at reduced commission rates, most CCIM or experienced commercial agents basically refuse to waste their time with amateur agents and over priced properties.

Appraisers call me frequently looking for comps and since there are no comps in over two years I suggest they use a capitalization approach. Of course that leads to a fair market rents discussion. In my opinion, over the next few years until Mesquite grows into the supply .40 to .60 cents a foot will be the going rate. At an 8% cap rate and .50 cents a foot the average asking price is on average about twice the actual market value. Of course the owners and listing agents are sure this approach makes no sense at all.

There is much speculation in the market about the potential effects of the Desert Falls Sports Complex; it is being used by many as justification for future values. It remains to be seen if it will ever materialize. Until it does I would say “What you see is what you get”

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV 89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties

Mesquite Market Quarterly
First Quarter 2009
By Chris W. Miller ABR, CRS, GRI

New trends give a clear view of where the market is going.

Mesquite Nevada MLS recorded a total of 65 residential closings during the first quarter, 22 of these were bank owned or short sales 33.8%.  207 residential listings were submitted and 247 went out of the system as failed listings.

We closed a total of 41 single family homes and 13 of those were bank owned or short, the 13 distressed home sales averaged $111 per square foot. Of the 41 closed single family homes was 24 existing or resales at $122 per foot, 17 new homes at $162 per foot.

There are already 20 resale home listings available at Sun City Mesquite.  The Mesquite MLS only recorded a total of 7 closings during the first quarter at the new Pulte Del Webb project, that includes new and resale homes, those 7 sales averaged $159 per foot.

8 condominiums closed at an average of $99 per foot, 15 town homes closed at an average price of $118 per square foot, and 2 vacant residential building lots sold.   3 homes sold and closed in Bunkerville and they averaged $93 per square foot.

On March 31, 2009, at the end of this past quarter 44% of the pending transactions in the Mesquite MLS were listed as distressed properties, either REO or short.  Failed listings which are still out and most must be sold sooner or later exceeded pendings on a 5 to 1 basis this past quarter; many will turn to distressed properties.

Based on the past quarter sales and the current active listed properties there are 22 months of single family homes, 46 months of condos, 19 months of town homes, and years worth of building lots.  It looks like there is on average about a two year supply sitting on the market, plus another year’s worth of inactive and vacant.

At this time around 255 of the 430 active listings are listed as vacant, about 60% are sitting empty, no cash flow.

There are still many people living in homes they can not afford and they are under water. A wave of distressed properties, yet to come to the market.

While many agents, the government, and the media spread the rumor that the market is improving!   Buyer Beware has never rang louder.

There are 13 commercial buildings and 16 commercial land parcels actively listed for sale and many more available but not listed. No commercial buildings or land closed. While it is hard to measure, it looks like there is well over 300,000 square feet of vacant commercial office/retail/industrial space sitting vacant.

The City of Mesquite building department issued 6 permits for new commercial buildings and 19 permits for residential buildings during the first quarter 2009.

The typical buyer profile coming to Mesquite today is a far more cautious and conservative retiree.  They have been slapped hard with the reality that neither the stock market nor the real estate markets always go in one direction. Many have seen a huge chunk of their nest egg disappear in both markets.

The current environment has them in fear of their financial future, out living their savings. Uncertainty about government spending, bail outs, health care costs, rising cost of living (inflation), income stability and net worth are all potentially paralyzing for buyers.

There seems to be an uneasy sense with the retirees that the government is reaching too deeply into the pocket of our capitalist free enterprise system. There is little security anywhere. It is affecting consumer sentiment and confidence.

The market correction is far from over and for Mesquite it is a reality check. If we are to attract the greener more conservative baby boomers we will need to adapt.

Affordability, efficiency, and value will have to lead us out. What worked over the past ten years, business as usual will not cut it.   This is not unique to Mesquite, most every business model out there is changing the way they do business or like our auto industries they will be reorganized.

After the high flying years of loose money and bad decisions, deleveraging is taking place. Asset values are falling and this will continue until the market gets back to fundamentals that work.  Vacancy rates will not go down until business can afford the rents. Buyers will not buy homes they can not afford.

Debt to income ratios must get back to closer to 28% and 35%, or prices in the range of 2.5 to 3.5 times annual income. As we have seen, 5 times annual income as a purchase price generally does not work. Debt is strangling the entire economy.

This melt down of the financial system is all about excessive unmanageable debt, over leveraged, and wildly over valued assets.  Consumer sentiment or confidence is not the cause; it is the artificially inflated values. Lower prices and market stagnation are the results we are seeing.

Affordability is not a concept, it is reality.

Mesquite Nevada has a bright future and the current market is beginning to create opportunities for knowledgeable buyers.

For square footage numbers in specific neighborhoods, questions, or comments

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV  89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties

Banks like Citigroup plan to renegotiate loans for those not yet behind.

Countrywide said today wait to contact us until you are three months behind.

During my most recent conversation regarding a listed short sale Countrywide said “we don’t want any involvement until you have an offer” with no discussion of pricing the property.

The Tarp plan has changed directions and no one understands where it is going or who it will help. As the de-leveraging continues and prices fall, foreclosures and defaults increase and it remains impossible to know the full extent of the losses or how long this will continue. Unemployment is a looming nasty wildcard. Banks vow to help millions of families, but can they really make those high dollar mortgages affordable or will they just prolong the pain and postpone the inevitable? Renegotiating much of the secondary market paper will be impossible.

Some banks continue to take weeks to respond to offers, and list REO properties at above market value prices. No one knows for sure who is holding all the bad assets or how bad they will become. Some banks will just write off the losses while others plan to pursue collection efforts and default judgments after short sales and foreclosures. Many second position lenders and PMI companies are exposed to (100%) loses. Wall Street is clearly worried along with the economies around the entire world.

Prices are coming down dramatically on some properties, and yet some cash buyers continue to pay 2006 prices on other properties. It must be either; buyers who are completely uninformed about the market and unrepresented or else they found the only home that fits their exact needs and makes them feel the best. With such erratic prices dual agency for agents will become far more dangerous.

Many properties will have to be sold now to raise cash. All this uncertainty is paralyzing most buyers at a time when they should be laying out their plan to take advantage of the margin call properties going on sale.

The one thing that does make sense right now is that the lenders do have money to lend at very favorable rates for those with a down payment, good credit, and the ability to repay. 

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV  89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties 

Overall residential sales increased during the second Q compared to the same time period during 2006 by nearly 10%. While average prices dropped by 3% on a price per square foot basis and days on market grew by 20%. Pulte Del Webb opened the much acclaimed new Sun City Mesquite. The increase in sales could be attributed to the “Pulte Factor” they claimed to have over 13,000 interested potential buyers just prior to the Grand Opening. The average sales price fell from $291,379 to $249,659, inline with smaller average unit size which averaged 1646 square feet in the second Q 2006 and came down to 1447 square foot average this past quarter. Smaller units selling for less and taking longer to sell seem to be the current trend.