Posts Tagged ‘mesquite market quarterly’

Mesquite Market Quarterly, Mesquite Nevada Real Estate

Monday, October 22nd, 2007

New home building permits are up 56% with 351 issued year to date in 2007 and that is not the only thing different here in Mesquite, Nevada from what you hear daily on the national front. 

New home sales are down 49% with only 21 closed and prices are down 7% to $178 per square foot, at least in the local MLS. However, add in the Pulte Del Webb, Sun City Mesquite numbers and sales are up! The best information sources say they have sold 160 to 180 units and closed around 50 of those. The recordings are not showing up in the Clark county records yet and we can only guess at prices per foot, but we believe it is well below the $178 number. They have offered standing, completed units for as little as $125 per square foot. 

Existing single family homes sales were down by 32% with 26 closed units and prices are up 5% to around $186 per square foot. Marketing time or days on market is longer and the number of units to choose from has ballooned. New highs in the inventory available for buyers to pick from are reached almost everyday! 

Town home/condo sales are down 35% with 33 closed and prices are lower by 6% from third quarter of 2006. The average price per square foot dropped from $162 to $152 per square foot and average marketing time reached over 4 months. 

No commercial land or commercial building sales were recorded this quarter. Commercial building permits for new construction are up 200% year to date in 2007 from 10 last year to 30 permits so far this year. Vacancy rates look to be at staggeringly high numbers for retail/office space around town with lots more about to come  online.                                                                               
                                                                                                         

Residential land or vacant lot sales picked up with 4 sales recorded verses 1 during the third quarter of 2006; however the average price dropped by a third. Inventory will be the story here also going forward, with over 70 active listings and whole subdivisions being offered for barely over half the price of two year old appraised prices. Banks are going to end up holding the bag, full of vacant lots. Write downs on these will be huge. It is estimated there are as many as 14,000 platted and approved and as many as 40,000 more planned in the Toquop area north of and adjoining Mesquite in Lincoln County.


During the past twelve months there have been 75 NOD’s (notice of default) recorded with Clark County in Mesquite, these are loans in danger of going into foreclosure. Vacancy rates in residential properties have skyrocketed and the speculators are hurting with no cash flow. Inventory of residential real estate “for sale” at this time stands over 370 available, a new historical high and based on year to date closings represents a one year supply. Newly listed property is exceeding units going out of the system as pending by 6 to 1 year to date. Most of what is going out of the system is in the failed categories, either expired or withdrawn, that likely will be back on the market at some point. Average asking prices per square foot have edged down only slightly on existing units. Builders continue to offer huge incentives to buy new.


In general the market has slowed way down in every category including open house traffic numbers, deals are harder to put together and much harder to consummate. Many deals fail because of the tougher underwriting standards banks are now using.

You might say the standoff between buyers and sellers continues.
If you gamble, the odds makers are betting on the buyers.

In my opinion the REAL consequences of the housing slow down are not showing up in these numbers yet, stay tuned for the next few quarters!

Chris W. Miller

ERA Brokers Consolidated

Mesquite NV  89027

702- 346-7200

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

Nevada Farm and Ranch Land

Nevada Water Rights

Lincoln County Land Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mesquite Market Quarterly 4th Q 2006

Saturday, January 20th, 2007
The 2006 final quarter ended with 273 residential listings being submitted “For Sale”, compared to 99 during the same time period of 2005, up 276%. Inventory listed For Sale in the local Mesquite MLS reached an all time high of 328 units on November 22, 2006

. Currently taking into account every property for sale in one form or another, (listed locally, self serve agencies, FSBO’s, builders, out of town agencies, etc.) it appears there over 600 properties available “For Sale” today. It is a patient buyers dream come true! 

 

 

From the City of Mesquite

planning and redevelopment department there are 69 approved new developments on the current list, with over 5000 sites, plus the new Pulte Del Webb project adds another 4000, totaling over 9000 new planned residential units. The city issued 282 single family home, and 55 multi-family residential building permits during 2006. Building continues all around town and will continue to add to the competitiveness of the market. 

 

 

New homes sold and closed during the last quarter totaled 21 as listed in the local MLS at an average price of $185 per square foot, compared to 30 sold during the same period of 2005 at an average price of $157 per square foot. An 18% increase in price from a year earlier. However, the 2006 entire year average sale price per square foot for new homes was $194 and dropped during the last quarter to $185. Due to an increasingly competitive market place this trend is likely to continue. These numbers do not reflect incentives currently being offered by builders. 

 

Existing homes sales totaled 39 sold and closed as listed in the local MLS for the last quarter of 2006, compared to 44 in the same time period of 2005. During the last quarter of 2005 the average price per square foot was $179 with 5 selling above $400K. For the 2006 fourth quarter, 10 homes were sold above $400k and averaged $239 per square foot, the price for the remaining existing homes sold at or below $400,000 (75%) averaged $176 per square foot. Basically it appears existing home prices reached a peak in the spring of 2006 and have been coming down since that time. The 2006 total year average price per square foot for existing homes was $185 and appears to be trending down.

 

The Town home/ Condo market is suffering, during the last quarter of 2005 MLS shows 68 sold and closed with an average price per square foot of $159. During 2006 last quarter MLS show 43 sales with an average price per square foot of $153. A 37% drop in sales numbers and a 2% price drop compared to 2005 last quarter. The city of Mesquite

issued 45% more multi-family building permits in 2006 than 2005, so competition is fierce. The 2006 total year average price per square foot was $163 on 213 sales. The price trend is down, and units available up. 

There are currently 17 single family lots available “for sale” as listed in the local MLS, the average asking price is $279,000, and none sold during the past quarter. If local builders follow some of the big publicly traded national builders and begin to sell off land, this market could be in for dramatic change. Since the average sold price in 2006 for a single family home was $349,733, using the general of thumb that land value not exceed 25% of total value, lots will have to be in the $80k to $90k range. 

 

No commercial building sales were recorded in the local MLS during the last quarter of 2006. Three commercial/industrial land parcels sold and closed, and ranged from $6.89 per foot to $20.66 per foot. There are a dozen or so parcels “for sale” around town, most asking over $20 per foot. That is expensive land by any standards and most business enterprises can not make those numbers work. Commercial building permits issued during 2006 totaled 13, down 58% from 2005’s 31 permits issued.

 

Mesquite’s residential rental market has the speculators shaking in their boots! First of all they never intended to hold the property this long, now with sales prices on a down ward trend, they are turning to the rental market. This is a very difficult number to count, but from news paper ads, the internet and property management companies it appears there are well over 100 vacant units available for rent. This is driving landlords to offer incentives like the first month free, etc. and rents are coming down. In many cases cash flow from a fair rental rate may be half the debt service. This pressure will show up in sales prices at some point in the future. 

Money remains cheap and easy to borrow. Inventory, competition and lower prices will be the headlines for 2007. 

 

Pulte Del Webb took out 12 single family building permits in December for the new Sun City Model Center

and they appear to be headed for the June 2007 grand opening as scheduled. 

Mesquite undoubtedly has a huge and bright future, and the market will present opportunities as well as challenges this coming year. For weekly market updates tune into “Talking Real Estate” on Radiomesquite.com Saturdays at 3 and 9 pm and Sundays at 12:00 noon, Pacific Time. 

 

 

 

 

Chris Miller

Mesquite GMAC Real Estate

Mesquite NV  89027

702 346-9050

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

 

 

 

Don’t Confuse Me With The Facts, Please!

Monday, December 4th, 2006

This last week I spent considerable time negotiating for a seller, the offer we were working with was well below their asking price. After a couple of counters back and forth we came to a standoff.

During this process we talked about the current market conditions and the seller’s competition in the market. This particular property has been for sale on the market for over a year and has not received a single offer, and the seller is very frustrated.

Some sellers want to be informed, actually most do, and many consider it their responsibility. While others really don’t want to hear about the market facts, they don’t seem to be interested in the truth; they prefer to live in a dreamland of denial.

Here is what the seller essentially said to me, “I don’t care about the market, the only thing I am interested in is my property. I want what I want for it, and I am entitled to make money on my real estate. I don’t want to hear about all those statistics.”Facts and statistics are a reflection of the real market, not perceptions, speculations, or either positive or negative hype.  The facts reveal the true health and condition of the market.

That same seller last week also said, “Well, I heard the market was improving.” When asked where did he hear that he was not sure, but based on what he had heard from someone, he felt that the market facts were confusing the issue.

 

Either way, the seller got his way, he ignored the facts and disregarded the market statistics and the buyer walked away.

  It is a frustrating market!  He also got to keep his property. 

Chris Miller

Mesquite GMAC Real Estate

Mesquite NV  89027

702 346-9050

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

 

 

   

   

   

 

    

 

 

    

         

    

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

It is a frustrating market!  He also got to keep his property.         

      

         

    

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Facts and statistics are a reflection of the real market, not perceptions, speculations, or either positive or negative hype.  The facts reveal the true health and condition of the market.

That same seller last week also said, “Well, I heard the market was improving.” When asked where did he hear that he was not sure, but based on what he had heard from someone, he felt that the market facts were confusing the issue.

 

Either way, the seller got his way, he ignored the facts and disregarded the market statistics and the buyer walked away.

  It is a frustrating market!  He also got to keep his property.            

      

         

    

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It is a frustrating market!  He also got to keep his property.            

      

         

    

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Some sellers want to be informed, actually most do, and many consider it their responsibility. While others really don’t want to hear about the market facts, they don’t seem to be interested in the truth; they prefer to live in a dreamland of denial.

Here is what the seller essentially said to me, “I don’t care about the market, the only thing I am interested in is my property. I want what I want for it, and I am entitled to make money on my real estate. I don’t want to hear about all those statistics.”Facts and statistics are a reflection of the real market, not perceptions, speculations, or either positive or negative hype.  The facts reveal the true health and condition of the market.

That same seller last week also said, “Well, I heard the market was improving.” When asked where did he hear that he was not sure, but based on what he had heard from someone, he felt that the market facts were confusing the issue.

 

Either way, the seller got his way, he ignored the facts and disregarded the market statistics and the buyer walked away.

  It is a frustrating market!  He also got to keep his property.            

      

         

    

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It is a frustrating market!  He also got to keep his property.            

      

         

    

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Facts and statistics are a reflection of the real market, not perceptions, speculations, or either positive or negative hype.  The facts reveal the true health and condition of the market.

That same seller last week also said, “Well, I heard the market was improving.” When asked where did he hear that he was not sure, but based on what he had heard from someone, he felt that the market facts were confusing the issue.

 

Either way, the seller got his way, he ignored the facts and disregarded the market statistics and the buyer walked away.

  It is a frustrating market!  He also got to keep his property.            

      

         

    

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

         

    

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

When Sellers Know Best

Thursday, November 2nd, 2006

As inventory grows and sales slow in Mesquite, builders continue to start new homes because that is what builders do, they build. Plans for new projects of all kinds are presented and approved, and the dirt movers around town are staying busy.  Mesquite continues to grow with new unsold condo/town home complexes and single family neighborhoods. 

Sellers remain stubbornly fixed on last year’s prices while buyers today are looking forward to next year and trying to guess where the market is going. Maybe sellers need to try to step into the buyer’s shoes, read the news, and ask themselves, would they buy that house, at that price, today? Could it be a better value tomorrow? 

Try this, what are the chances it will cost more tomorrow based on today’s news? What are the chances it could cost less tomorrow? Which do you think is a stronger influence, fear of loss or possibility to gain? The idea of buying a house that could be worth less than you owe or paid is paralyzing for most buyers. 

What will motivate today’s buyers? Confidence they can’t go wrong? (Like last year!) Confidence in the market? Of course a very good deal or at least what they perceive as a very good value might motivate them, but then there is that fear. Sellers offering very good deals today are selling their properties even in the face of today’s news.

So what is a very good value today? Current market value minus 10 %, 15%, 20%, and how does a seller know the current market value if last months appraisal may already be obsolete? These are not easy questions, and as a working real estate professional I am amazed how some sellers seem to think they know the exact answers. No offense intended it is a tough market to figure, even armed with all the current market facts and trends. Honestly those sellers who think they know exactly, based on last years prices, are the ones with the houses sitting “for sale” on the market. That is a telling sign of something! 

If the predictions from economists like Robert Shiller, Mark Zandi and a growing host of others prove to come true, today’s sellers who do drop their asking price and sell now, may come out smelling like a bed of roses. Many in and out of the industry are saying “the sooner today’s sellers confront and accept the inevitable truth, the facts about today’s market prices, the sooner the market can begin to heal itself.” 

So the Real question is; When Will Sellers Know Best?

Chris Miller

Mesquite GMAC Real Estate

Mesquite NV  89027

702 346-9050

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

 

 

 

 

Does 2 Plus 2 Still Equal 4 in Mesquite?

Monday, October 30th, 2006

The U.S. economy is strong enough that further interest-rate increases wouldn’t push it into a sharp downturn, said Jeffrey Lacker, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, on Monday. 

“The economy is resilient enough to withstand further tightening,” Lacker said in a breakfast speech to the Greater Baltimore Committee.  Lacker said he is much more worried about the danger of persistently high inflation rates than of an economic downturn. There are “tentative signs emerging that the housing market may be stabilizing,” Lacker said.  

 

Higher rates will affect markets like Mesquite where affordability is already at historical lows with the median asking price around  $340,000.    

Mesquite multiple listing system shows 19 closed units month to date for October compared to 51 for October of 2005. That’s 37% by comparison.

At the same time inventory listed reached a new high, over 300 available today, and the average asking price for a single family home remains above $206 per square foot. By my estimate only 60% to 70% of the property for sale is actually listed in the system, which means closer to 500 properties available.

Let’s review 19 closings (demand) plus 300 listings (supply) equals $206 per foot asking price and the market is Stabilizing? 

With this type of discussion we have to look at the local market, just Mesquite, and in Mesquite we still have to deal with national level interest rates.

So what’s next is any bodies guess, there are still lots of new construction starts going on all over town. Two things for sure, inventories are growing and sales are slowing, even if asking prices remain unchanged.

Are the buyers out there “reading the hand writing on wall” and choosing to wait and see what happens next? That is the way it looks today.

Chris Miller

Mesquite GMAC Real Estate

Mesquite NV  89027

702 346-9050

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com