Mesquite Market

Is Las Vegas going to run out of water? Southern Nevada Water Authority’s Water Problem.

May 26, 2010
I attended the Southern Nevada (CCIM) Certified Commercial Investment Managers Chapter monthly meeting at the Rio in Las Vegas. I went for one reason, the title and speaker, “

How You May Be Impacted by Nevada’s Water Supply” presented by Pat Mulroy. Mrs. Mulroy is the general manager of Southern Nevada Water Authority.

As a long time real estate professional who specializes in agricultural land with water rights in Nevada, I talk with Nevada’s farmers and ranchers’ everyday; I was shocked by the introduction.

The lady introducing Mrs. Mulroy said about her, among other things, how wonderful she is, how hard she works, how powerful she is, and then she said, “and something I’ll bet none of you know about her, She HATES COWS”.

Mrs. Mulroy took the stage and went on to say “anything that dumb and big has to be dangerous” referring to cattle. The friendly crowd of men and women dressed in suits and ties laughed.

I on the other hand, immediately took umbrage, and thought to myself, I wonder if this lady realizes where the food in the grocery store comes from.

I took notes the whole time she talked.

Her presentation seemed to me to be based on the fear factor.

She talked about snow pack in Colorado this past winter being at 67% of normal. She talked about continuing drought conditions.

She explained that Lake Mead is running an annual deficit of approximately 2.7 million acre feet this year. There are 8.2 million acre feet coming in and 10.9 million acre feet going out.

Mrs. Mulroy explained the Lake Mead water level measurements  with future projections.

But first let me give you a little history, from 1939 to 2003 Lake Mead averaged 1173 foot elevation, the high water or maximum point for Lake Mead is 1229.

Today it stands at about 1094. Since the canyon narrows as it descends, the water level drops faster and faster as it is over drafted, so expect the drop to accelerate.

Mrs. Mulroy explained that at the 1088 foot elevation level they could lose the upper intake for the water supply to Boulder City and 40% of Las Vegas’s supply. 

She said, “At 1050 Hoover Dam stops generating power and that the dam supplies all of the electricity to Overton Power and Lincoln County Power.”

 At 1000 Vegas loses the lower intake that would literally cut off 90% of the water supply to Las Vegas and all of the water supply to Boulder City.

Work has begun on a so called third straw.  This so called third straw has been referred to as a bath tub drain.

Michael Johnson, Virgin Valley Water District hydrologist, told me years ago the aquifer that runs under our Mesquite Valley travels under Lake Mead, could they tap into it?

Pat Mulroy said, “SNWA will be utilizing all the water rights it owns or controls in the Virgin River, which runs through Mesquite/Bunkerville and the Muddy River in Moapa/Overton”.

She stated that, Southern Nevada Water Association uses approximately 9.5 million acre feet per year, (that sounds like ten times too much to me) and once Lake Mead goes below 1025 there are only 4 to 5 million acre feet of water left in the reservoir.

She said the Lincoln and White Pine Counties pipeline will start construction in 2012 if the lake goes below 1075, period!

Her facts can be verified at:  http://www.snwa.com/html/wr_resource_plan.html 

She said ”If I have to set up a cot in Harry Reid’s office, I will stay until I get a permanent chair”. I did not know Harry passed out water rights! That job belongs to the State Engineer.

She said “the hyperbole (hyper exaggerations) coming from rural Nevadan’s about their water table concerns was childish.” She went on to say “the rural Nevada farmers and ranchers are being Pig Headed.”

She referenced a recent USGS Basin and Range study  that she claims shows plenty of extra water. I have not yet located any completed study.

What makes you think they will stop in White Pine County?

When I asked, she said the reason for the huge draw down or overdraft, according to a recent NASA study in California’s Central Valley was the result of farmers irrigating and lack of government regulation. New space observations reveal that since October 2003, the aquifers for California’s primary agricultural region — the Central Valley — and its major mountain water source — the Sierra Nevada — have lost nearly enough water combined to fill Lake Mead, America’s largest reservoir.

Finally for the record, she said “there are plenty of un-appropriated water rights in Nevada and the Snake Basin is next in her sights.”

She appears to me to be dead set on tapping into and draining rural East Central and Northern Nevada, Western Utah and Southern Idaho’s aquifers to supply Las Vegas.

 They did it to Pahrump, Nevada

When I questioned her, she lashed out at me, “Do you have a better idea?”

She said to watch for a favorable Moodys Rating Agency report coming out that should help support project financing in Las Vegas. I wonder if Moodys knows any thing about water. Remember the rating agencies said the Mortgage Backed Securities were safe and secure too.

She may be powerful, but based on her comments, attitude and general demeanor; clearly she is not as sharp as you would expect!

That does not mean you should underestimate her ability or determination to get this done.

You can learn more about me by searching “Irrigated Nevada farm and ranch land with water rights for sale” on any search engine. 

Land in Nevada

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Are you unsure if all the hype about water and food shortages in the future is real or just?

The science is mounting and it is not any one single cause or source. You may not buy into global warming or maybe you do and just do not believe it is man caused. Either way drought is real.

As mentioned the science is mounting in favor of serious problems in coming decades for mankind’s ability to provide adequate fresh drinking water and food to the increasing billions of us on the planet.

In previous blogs I have referenced National Geographic’s April 2010 Special Issue, “Water Our Thirsty World”. They clearly believe we have a problem already in many parts of the world including parts of the United States.

A new study called, the gravity recovery and climate experiment, or GRACE shows the following.

“Combined, California’s Sacramento and San Joaquin drainage basins have shed more than 30 cubic kilometers of water since late 2003, said Jay Famiglietti, UCI Earth system science professor and director of the UC Center for Hydrologic Modeling. A cubic kilometer is about 264.2 billion gallons, enough to fill 400,000 Olympic-size pools. The bulk of the loss occurred in the state’s agricultural Central Valley. The Central Valley depends on irrigation from both groundwater wells and diverted surface water.

“GRACE data reveal groundwater in these basins is being pumped for irrigation at rates that are not sustainable if current trends continue,” Famiglietti said. “This is leading to declining water tables, water shortages, decreasing crop sizes and continued land subsidence. The findings have major implications for the U.S. economy, as California’s Central Valley is home to one-sixth of all U.S. irrigated land and the state leads the nation in agricultural production and exports.”

The loss is nearly enough to fill Lake Mead, America’s largest reservoir and Las Vegas Nevada’s primary water source. The Central Valley’s major source of water comes from the Sierra Nevada Mountain Range.

Source: University of California - Irvine (2009, December 15). California’s troubled waters: Satellite-based findings reveal significant groundwater loss in Central Valley. ScienceDaily. Retrieved May 23, 2010, from http://www.sciencedaily.com /releases/2009/12/091214152022.htm

Next week I will be attending a luncheon in Las Vegas;
How You May be Impacted by Nevada’s Water SupplyPresentation by: Pat Mulroy
General Manager, Southern Nevada Water Authority

I will report what she has to say about our water in Nevada.

Chris W. Miller
Independence Realty
435-862-5951
Land in Nevada
Nevada Ranch Properties
Lincoln County Land Market
Nevada Water Rights
Mesquite Nevada Real Estate Market

The UN may be wrong about the world’s oceans running out of fish
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100518/ts_afp/speciesfishunus/

The news about food shortages today and tomorrow may be wrong
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_security/

The news about fresh water shortages may be wrong
http://environmentalism.suite101.com/article.cfm/environmental_cost_of_global_freshwater_shortage

The IMF may wrong about fiscal deficits and global financial crisis
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2009/RES111009A.htm

Al Gore and his wacky environmental friends may be wrong about global warming
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17718399

This writer seems be advocating a China approach, “But if resources are limited, the last thing we need is a growing population. We would be better off with a smaller population, so that earth’s limited resources can be shared among a smaller number of people, providing more for each person. If families start having only one child each, this would be helpful from a resources point of view, but it would make it even more difficult to pay off out all of the outstanding debt, in addition to paying for Social Security and Medicare benefits for all the seniors.” From The Intelligence Daily
http://www.inteldaily.com/2010/04/social-security-and-medicare-funding-issues-even-worse-when-one-considers-resource-constraints

These people believe it is government’s responsibility, “Governments are responsible for providing access to adequate food to eliminate hunger, malnutrition and starvation.
http://www.hrea.org/index.php?base_id=145

Obama and his crowd would probably go for this idea! Actually they may be taking us down this road of becoming a totally dependant society deliberately.

These people say oil sands may as hazardous as the Gulf oil leak, “Oil sands development is ‘kind of like the gulf spill but playing out in slow motion’, said report co-author Doug Cogan, director of climate risk management at RiskMetrics. He called it a ‘land-based’ version of the gulf disaster.” http://www.globalissues.org/news/2010/05/17/5627

Much of this information feels like it is presented with a bias agenda, and some seem to lack basic common sense, whether it is backed by a guy with a degree in a science field or not.

We do know between 15,000 to 25,000 children die each day around the world because of malnutrition and water borne disease. We do know malnutrition is a serious problem in the United States for seniors and children living in poverty.

We do know we are overdrafting aquifers around the world and fresh water tables are dropping in many parts of the United States and around the world.

We do know the demand for food and fresh water will increase as the world’s population increases.

Many around the world can not help themselves out of this daily nightmare. Unfortunately this scenario is going to get worse as we place greater demand on finite resources.

Many are convinced these trends will lead to a resurgence in rural America. So there you have it, my agenda. I sell rural land in Nevada with water rights. A place where you can create a sustainable self sufficient lifestyle that could protect you from becoming a statistic.

Lifestyle is what draws most people to rural living; it gives them a sense of getting back to their fundamental roots. Raising a garden, chickens that lay fresh eggs, fruit trees and farm raised meats.

I am convinced economics, urban blight and a desire for an active productive lifestyle will bring many more to consider affordable rural lifestyles. Retired does not mean dead, although it might if you don’t stay active.

When you combine a nice little piece of land and a small efficient home with proper solar orientation, a mild climate, some good dirt and water, you have the basic recipe.

Marketing to retirees has largely been focused on golf, activity/recreation center with social clubs in large planned unit developments, which is fine for some, but there are other options.

Your grand children will enjoy visiting your “farm”.

I have some good friends, they live in what he and his wife lovingly refer to as their “bunk house”, it is small but quite luxurious. It is completely solar, with propane and a wood burning stove. A solar pump provides water. They raise most all their own food, and have a nice little income from extra produce sold at the farmers market. They have television and internet, and a small green house. They tell me this new lifestyle is the greatest thing they have ever done, short of raising some great kids. They are some of the happiest people I know!

They also tell me they sleep very well at night knowing that no matter goes on in the world, they “feel” secure.

Our ancestors lived off the land; you can go back to a slower, simpler, more rewarding way of life. The biggest difference today from back then is modern technology. Instead of plowing your garden behind a horse, you can ride a small tractor. You can raise chickens to lay eggs or broilers that are designed to be eaten. You can have peacocks and geese as watch dogs and security systems.

We are looking at and working on developing larger tracts for mini farms. Some bankers seem to think this idea is crazy and have told me no one will ever buy it. I would appreciate your thoughts, ideas, and input. Does this make sense to you?

Land in Nevada

Chris W. Miller
Independence Realty
435-862-5951
Nevada Ranch Properties
Lincoln County Land Market
Nevada Water Rights

The average price of listed foreclosures is rising.

The distress is moving up the income chain. What started with sub prime borrowers, the loose money and bad loans actually reached consumers at all income levels.

The pain of losing a home has mostly been felt by the lower income and unemployed, so far.

Excessive debt to income ratios exists at all income levels. Stable higher income has given many the luxury of postponing the inevitable. The bigger they are the harder they fall, or so they say.

The headline is deceiving, “The average price of listed foreclosures is rising.” Sounds like good progress, rising average prices. It does not mean, what it sounds like.

What it really means is the more expensive homes and commercial property is moving through process of deleveraging. This process will continue until the imbalance in those debt ratios and values is brought back into balance. Over leveraged simple means more owed than the asset is worth, too much debt, not enough value.

Over leveraged can also apply to individuals, too many bills not enough income. The wealth effect in real estate caused many to over extend. When prices were rising, they spent like they were rich. While personal consumer debt rose, savings actually fell.

The burden of covering the financial loses from deleveraging will fall on the tax payers of the future. The government programs appear to me to making the issue worse, at best prolonging the pain. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will turn out to be liabilities for generations. Your great grand children will still be paying back the debt.

For those who will use the headline to spin the market, prices will likely continue to fall. We have not seen the bottom yet. The real estate economy is a symptom of the current social attitudes about image, debt, and materialism, just in case you are buying the spin.

Our narcissistic society is the American Dream gone wild. Our homes, cars, TVs, diamonds, on and on have to be bigger and better than the next guy. To the point we will mortgage our future, our kid’s futures and our grand kid’s futures to satisfy the insanity. Capitalism is not the problem, debt is the problem.

While European socialist financial systems fail, Fannie and Freddie’s unfunded bailout liabilities are adding billions now to the United States debt. We are printing away our Nation’s future opportunities, to cover the excesses of the recent past.

The only real way out is to reduce the debt, at all levels. It starts with personal financial responsibility and that includes your vote. The government does not belong in the business of lending money (Fannie, Freddie, HAMP), real estate, banking, the auto industry, health care, or any other business that can be run in free open markets. Open free markets that allow for failure and loss as well as opportunity and success are the only answer.

Generational theft to keep people in homes they could not afford to start with, to satisfy an “entitled point of view” must be stopped. We as a nation are going to have to learn to live within our means. The government can not save the value of your home; the government can not stabilize home prices, only open free market supply and demand.

I recently attended a meet the candidate’s forum. The question was raised, what about a social security means test, not just whether social security is taxable but how much you receive based on other total income and maybe net worth. The room was full of retirees and the candidate asked how many would oppose such an idea, virtually every hand went up.

The wealthiest generation in our Nation’s history may prove to be the greediest generation of our Nation’s history. They are clinging to a phony image and lifestyle at the expense of their children’s future. That is what I am talking about when I say personal financial responsibility. If you are accepting money you could do without, you are part of the problem.

In general they look down their noses at those in the so called entitlement programs, welfare and the like. Social security looks like a rat moving through a snake, except this time the rat will eat his way out. For the people in their 20’s and 30’s will that “security” be there for them, they are paying in.

So I say why not now, why not today’s recipients as well as tomorrow’s. Start today, reduce the debt, cut the entitlements, and build smaller homes, save more money. Whether the IMF is correct or not, that United States debt will exceed 100% of U.S. GDP by 2015, we can either start today or suffer worse consequences in the future. It is guaranteed.

We better all start today and we better all take it very personally; procrastination to deal with this painful process could kill our Great Nation.

Chris W. Miller

Land in Nevada

Independence Realty

Mesquite NV 89027

435-862-5951

Mesquite Market

chris@mesquitemarket.com

Lincoln County Land Market

Nevada Ranch Properties