Greece is a country going through a very difficult period, a socialist society unable to pay their bills, as a result of over promising public services. It has finally reached the point they can not borrower the money to meet the social obligations, debt and accumulating interest. Services and spending must be cut and a many of the people are completely dependant upon the government for everything. The people gave up their self reliance for a meal ticket years ago.

It is public health care, social welfare, public sector jobs, government employee pay, education, and government retirees pensions that must be cut. Today the Greece ten year government bond (the government’s credit card) yield is over 32%, you think the interest rate on your credit card is high! It will dramatically affect the life styles of every person in the country, and lower the standard of living for nearly all.

The problem is, there is not enough revenue coming into the government because they committed to spending it faster than they can tax away from the people. The spending problem is a result of the people of Greece depending on their government to provide for all their needs and giving away the control of health care, pensions, and social welfare. Totally dependent people are, to a degree people who have given up their liberty. Many may leave Greece seeking opportunity else where.

Economic growth alone will not pay off the massive debts, only great sacrifice, smaller government and lower standards of living, which will be required for many years.

Does moving to a “Land of Liberty” and opportunity sound familiar to you? Our Great Nation was built on the Freedom and Liberty of capitalism, free enterprise, self reliance, open competitive markets creating opportunities. Freedom to try anything and fail if you will. At the same time that Liberty allows us our freedom for our independent spirit, enterprise, innovation, and labors which can lead to fabulous success and reward.

America is being taken down the path of massive government spending policies accumulating huge debt service or payments and many promises of future government support to the masses, just as was Greece. It can be compared to looking into our future, except ours is a much larger scale of over regulation, taxation, and the government’s desire to control our health care, education, industry, research and development.

Picking winners and losers through government grants, loans, and bailouts. From huge banks to auto industries, energy sectors, education, and health care. Social promises made for social security,  Medicaid, Medicare, public sector employees payrolls and their future care including complete dependency for income and health care, as well as all future veterans benefits. Like Greece, the government is doomed to fail.

For those of you working in the public sector, all of you folks completely dependent on the government for your job and your future retirement security and health care, it is time to wake up. They have yanked the rug out from under the peoples’ of Greece, and they have no other options. Austerity is coming to America. Today we must choose to start the difficult task of fixing this massive hole. We are far from the first generations’ of Americans to face great sacrifice, although our public schools may have failed to teach us this history.  Public sector employee unions are of no help to the people of Greece and they won’t be in America.

We are borrowing forty cents for every dollar the American government spends today. We owe the principal plus interest on the debt, now over $15,350,000,000,000.  We are committed to larger future obligations than we can afford today. We must shrink future commitments, shrink government, and shrink spending.

The current administration keeps expanding the spending. More agencies, more regulations, more social programs, expanded health care, more money to education, more subsidizes, more grants and government loan guarantees. Today government funding is virtually the only secondary market lending today, (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) those who loan the banks the money to loan to the people for residential home mortgages, then there is also FHA, VA, etc., all government backed loans. No private money is going to be loaned as long term mortgage money at today’s interest rates, and the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates artificially low, they say for the extended future. The market and time will fix housing, the government can not fix housing, period.

You must vote, it is your responsibility, to your freedom, to your children and grandchildren, so as you go into the voting booth this fall, remember what America was founded on, the principles of Life, Liberty, and Pursuit of Happiness.  Freedoms we can not afford to take for granted.

This election must be based on what has happened in America over the last few years, understanding that this could be the most important vote we all will cast in our lives‘.  We must elect fiscal conservatives, men and women who believe in smaller government. Much will be asked of them, to be bold, brave, and unwavering in principle, just as much was required from our founding fathers and many generations since then.

America’s bright future can be restored, but today we are going the wrong direction.  Today in America there is still middle ground between Total Austerity and staying our course, but like Greece this opportunity window will close.

Some analysts are predicting 2012 will be the year “Baby Boomers” and their parents will begin to really show through more personal conservative spending habits and more frugal lifestyles that they understand and believe, austerity is in America’s future.

These demographic groups have driven markets of all kinds since World War II. They taught America how to spend money and how to borrow money, like no generations before them. Home mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, equity lines, credit has been a staple of their lives. Just look at the overall size and scope of local, state, and federal employees, regulations, amount of public and private debt, and the spending policies of our current government. Accepting historically high levels of consumer and government debt as normal.

The Baby Boomers own this government, the policies, debt, and all else it encompasses. The lack of entitlement program reform speaks to their inability to honestly face and deal with the really tough issues. Time is running out. They elected the people who have represented America over the past fifty years. We have created a welfare country with no visible means of funding it. Sure FDR created social security in 1935, but we failed to reform it, and it was designed to be social welfare, not entitle people.

Today they are caught in an emotional riptide between feeling entitled to a certain standard of living and bankrupting America. Through lack of conservative government reform, entitlement reform, tax reform, and balancing our National budget the self declared “ME” generation is poised to selfishly steal their own children and grandchildren’s futures.

The 2012 presidential election will define just how selfish they really are. They do not have a great record of being financially conservative or doing without and they value materialism highly. Materialism is closely tied to their measure of each other, themselves and success. They view cutting personal consumption and a lower standard of living as some great sacrifice.

As a group they have not saved anywhere near enough money to live out their lives independently. Home equity was the “Nest Egg”, and the golden goose has died. Today real home equity is negative or nonexistent for many. They are locked in place.

Inflation, in food, energy, and health care will be an ongoing battle with relatively fixed or falling future incomes. The fixed incomes will also affect availability of credit for most. They are, very grudgingly, coming to understand that debt, public and private, is the enemy and less spending and affordability are the issues of the day.

With two solid generations of living beyond our means and needs combined with access to leverage and the associated risks, we have stacked up huge future financial obligations, public and private. Along the way neglecting upkeep and maintenance of our nations vital infrastructure.These two generations of Americans will continue to drive some real estate markets. Many are going to find smaller and more efficient homes are better financially. Retirement markets will be the most directly impacted. This will be like a wet blanket on home prices above national medium price of $164,000 in many real estate markets.

For retirement housing markets, understanding the needs and abilities of the target market with product focus and marketing will continue to be the key to new home sales and construction. Housing’s additional costs of living including energy consumption, water, taxes, insurance, internet, cable TV, HOA and SIDS fees, sewer and garbage collection fees will all be considered in addition to price. The notion of a second home is out of the question for most. The question is; can they, rather will they become frugal like their grandparents or will they continue to demand even more instant personal gratification.

The broadest real estate market appeal of tomorrow’s retirees will be dominated by smaller, more efficient and affordable home markets.

John F. Kennedy’s words, “And so, my fellow Americans, ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country” seem lost to the self-serving greed and entitlement mentality of today . You ask “Where did the current socially entitled, welfare and regulatory state that is eating America like a cancer come from?” Take a look in the mirror.

Our great nation was built on the ideals of “Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness”, however none of us are entitled to leave our heirs with trillions of dollars in unfunded debt. The upcoming election will be the most important votes we have or will cast during their lives.

We are faced with a simple question, will we be the first generations in American history to leave our Great Nation in worse shape than it was when we inherited it, or will we step up and sacrifice today, for a better tomorrow.

Just for perspective, if you take dollars for miles our current national debt will make over 63 million trips to the moon. The debt is 15,235,000,000,000 and its 240,000 miles to the moon. Of course 63 million trips to the moon won’t be compounded by interest! 

Food production requires both energy and water. Quality food production without growth hormones, pesticides, and many other types of toxins has become high priority for many consumers. Look at Whole Foods success and the organic food craze. Who in the world would not choose a healthier diet given the opportunity?

So how do we get from old traditional farming techniques to a more efficient, productive, resource conserving food producing world? Can the free market with innovation and capitalism driven by consumer demand really make the numbers work? New innovative irrigation technology has made huge strides in recent years in both production and water consumption. We all know the government spending our money, picking winners and losers is not the answer, it up to you and me.

From the beginning of cultivation and farming, they have lived and died by the fickle and unpredictable weather, praying for rain, cursing floods and drought. Weather affects crops to the extreme. Our world weather patterns are becoming increasingly unpredictable. You can not argue with the statistics, the ice caps are melting and the last ten years have had record warm temperatures. Drought currently grips much of the world. The weather has the potential to put world food supplies at extremely vulnerable levels in the near future.

Drought and flooding today is having a dramatic affect on food production in Europe, China, Africa, America, and Russia

As the wealth effect spreads throughout the emerging markets, protein is in increasingly higher demand. This is not a fad; China and India are demanding more beef, pork, dairy, and poultry. These countries consist of billions of consumers; all who would like to eat more like Americans, less rice! The middle class in these countries is exploding and they now have the discretionary income to demand higher quality foods. China has 20 percent of the world’s population and only 7 percent of the arable farm land. They have a serious problem with drought right now compounding their dilemma.

At the same time the aquifers of the world are dropping. Much of the world’s food production is not only subject to fickle weather patterns requiring the pumping ground water. This resource may be a far greater problem than peak oil. It is a combination of dwindling availability and contamination.

The average cow will drink 30 to 50 gallons of fresh water or a bath tub full per day, and eat up 90 pounds of feed. Hogs or pork production is not much different. Growing corn requires nearly 3000 gallons of water per bushel, Alfalfa requires about one acre foot per ton of hay, which is 325,851 gallons of fresh water per ton. These farm animals are the only source of the beef and pork the world demands. Cows are of course the primary source of dairy. All protein rich foods.

Speaking of the cattle, pork, and dairy industries, if you think you can keep antibiotics out of animals, dairy, and farming, you are dreaming. Prior to penicillin people regularly died from simple infections. You or some of the people you love would be dead today if you had been denied antibiotics.

So this brings us to the balance of the human food sources, fruits, vegetables, and grains. None of these grow without fresh water and good quality arable farm ground. Arable farm is a shrinking natural resource world wide. Aquifers world wide are dropping and irrigation pumping restrictions and reductions are becoming common in some of the most fertile and productive growing areas in the world.

The world will reward richly those who can produce quality food utilizing less water, less energy, and less land, or better yet turn today‘s unproductive lands into food producing regions.

Nevada has abundant affordable land, sunshine, and excellent solar intensity. Much of this land does not produce crops today. Can geothermal climate control coupled with solar, heat and cool green houses? Can hydroponics growing techniques reduce water consumption? Is it possible to eliminate the weather risk and seasonal limitations in farming by bringing farming indoors?

There are many ways you protect yourself and help solve the inevitable food and water shortages. Build your own greenhouse, get some egg laying chickens, get involved in your community gardening program or help develop one. Become educated about water consumption and use. Plant a garden. Move to a small farm .

If you are interested in the business opportunity utilizing affordable land to bring food production indoors in Nevada, call Chris W. Miller at 435-862-5951. We have the business plans, water rights, and the land.

Chris W. Miller

Independence Realty

435-862-5951

702-733-9337

Land in Nevada

Nevada Ranch Properties

Lincoln County Land Market

Mesquite NV Real Estate Market

Nevada Water Rights

Mesquite Nevada, is it at a crossroad?

“Will I Have Enough Money in Retirement?”

Very few baby boomers have not given this question considerable thought.

Mesquite can continue down the path set some years back as a high end, wealthy, golf, and gaming lifestyle community with great weather. Mesquite did a good job of this, but times are changing. The market has changed. For those claiming credit for Mesquite’s booming past, the truth is it had a great deal to do with market timing, funny money, and the Palm Springs hype.

The high-end housing market is a very competitive and a shrinking market. New homes being built today continue to get smaller nationally. While Mesquite has focused on expensive HOA’s, gated neighborhoods, streetscapes, and image our competition is focusing on future cost saving efficiency and sustainable living.

Even a free and clear home is not free to live in, homeowner association costs, taxes, insurance, maintenance, and utilities all go on forever.

The boomers are just starting to retire this year and will be retiring at a pace of 8000 to 10,000 per day for the next nineteen years. These retirees are Mesquite’s future target market.

Besides their recent asset value losses and reduced personal net worth, they are concerned about future health care costs, pension stability, social security, debt, inflation, and their future cost of living. There is 2.5 Trillion in pension funding owed today, who will pay this, Bankrupt States, Municipalities, Unions, the Federal Government? Are you willing to gamble your future on the stability of this debt? Or is your future already depending on it? Will our legacy for our children and generations beyond be that they will live with a lower standard of living, and we were a generation of extravagant, wasteful, fools?

For most, they grew up thinking real estate had little or no risk. The reality that there is downside risk in real estate has hit them, as a generation, hard.

We all know a huge percentage of the Boomer generation has not saved enough money.

Looking forward, some of the most relevant results of the recent past will be the way they view their money. Their attitude about debt. Their attitude about investing in residential real estate has fundamentally changed. It is no longer viewed as a quick way to wealth; rather it is where they live. They have also realized that leverage or debt has plenty in common with a margin account used for trading stocks. Gambling with borrowed money. They have become far more cautious and conservative. Finances in most cases will dictate their lifestyle choices, including where they will live.

Objections, obstacles, and adversities create opportunities. They are nothing more than problems to be solved. Remember IBM thought the Personal Computer was a Stupid Idea! They ignored the future at their own peril. 

Yet not a single home builder in Mesquite offers a solar application of any kind in a standard package. They do not talk much about orientation to the sun or solar applications. Mesquite homebuilders took out 201 new home building permits in 2010. How many do you think are properly solar oriented?

Innovation and technology like shared geothermal systems for heating and cooling entire neighborhoods and solar energy are the future. Do you think electricity costs are going down? Have you heard about cap and trade? 

The level of consumer awareness about home energy consumption costs will continue to rise. It will become a higher priority for many future home buyers. Solar orientation has as much to do with cooling in the summer as it does with warming in winter months. Your home’s energy efficiency will eventually affect your homes value.

Undeveloped subdivisions platted and being re-platted and approved by The City of Mesquite meet many requirements, but no consideration is given to home site solar orientation. This will not happen without The City of Mesquite’s support. The City of Mesquite will need to take the lead and be committed. The home builders will not just do this, land use density or maximizing the number of homes they can build on a parcel of land will prevent them from laying out lots for maximum solar exposure.

Overton Power offers a Power Purchase Agreement to individuals. While this is becoming more common, it is not available in all markets.

This is not about “Green Thinking” rather smart financial planning for the future and marketing.

Solar applications such as home orientation, glass exposure, and overhang design do not necessarily increase cost to build. Yet they save money each month forever.

The systems to generate electricity and heat water add to initial cost, but right now, there may be numerous incentive and rebate programs, stimulus money!

Today for the most part, Mesquite looks like an example of how to best not utilize the sun’s power at all! 

Are there any new solar oriented homes in Mesquite’s future? 

Would people visit Mesquite just to see a solar home neighborhood?

Could Mesquite become a shinning example, attracting national attention?

Would affordable solar homes in Mesquite stimulate economic development? 

Are there solar oriented subdivisions in Mesquite’s future?

Ignoring the concepts of affordable self-sustaining housing as Mesquite grows is like ignoring the fact that the Baby Boom Generation are really retiring. Proper solar orientation keeps homes cooler during the hot summer, permanently reducing the need for expensive air conditioning.

As I see this, we can either lead or follow. It is a conscious choice that the people of Mesquite should discuss and provide feedback to The City of Mesquite. To be “solar certified” would require changes to existing building codes, and powerful tract home builders and developers will likely oppose any changes. Is Mesquite economic development moving in the direction you would like it to be?

The truth is home building technology has not changed much in fifty years. If not properly oriented an energy star rated home can still cost plenty to heat and cool. The sun can help change this.

Vacant land cost basis, five subdivisions sold, all up in the newer Mesquite Heights/ Canyon Crest area. They were a total of 223 acres and sold combined for $2,650,000 or $12,000 per acre. If the builder puts six homes per acre, that is an average cost basis of $2,000 per lot. This is deleveraging in action, lowering cost basis. Infrastructure and grading costs could bring this cost basis up to $30,000 per lot. This could be why only three single-family resale lots sold in 2010 with a median price of $71,000, per Mesquite MLS.

Real estate building and development can become the economic engine for Mesquite again. The target market may have changed, dictating innovation and product change. We must look forward and adjust to the new realities.

Old style conventional home builders in Mesquite have been too slow to embrace this land use and building concept. In my opinion, Mesquite’s future is far too important to leave it to builders and land developers to lead Mesquite into the future.

Is the type of Mesquite’s future land development, home building and growth an election issue? 

Will There Be Water? 

In the space of a lifetime, critical issues about water use, and the availability of fresh water will confront the world. Food production, municipalities, industry, and energy will all compete for a dwindling natural resource, Water.

Excerpts from Southwest Hydrology September/October 2008, with some Commentary!

Early in U.S. history, public policy was fashioned to encourage settlement of the West. Laws such as the Homestead Act of 1862 and the Desert Lands Act of 1877 were framed to transfer government land to settlers. In 1902 the Reclamation Act provided funding for construction and maintenance of western irrigation projects. In its first annual report (1903), Reclamation had this to say” so that the remaining public lands will furnish the greatest possible number of homes, is an object worthy of the sustained effort of enlightened and patriotic citizens”. The public works that followed included such things as Hoover Dam, Shasta Dam, Newlands project, Yuma Project, Klamath project, Hetchy Aqueduct, and many more. With the 1902 Reclamation act the face of the West was changed forever. It must be pointed out and understood, these efforts and projects were directed at irrigation needs, based on a population that farmed for a living. Nothing like the urban shifts projected today!

Basin and Range Carbonite Aquifer System Study

What is a Water Table?

NASA Data Reveal Major Groundwater Loss in California

Groundwater Depletion Rate Accelerating Worldwide

Then came the drought-at a magnitude that had no probability of occurring, according to U.S. Bureau of Reclamation models based on a century of historical data. Sorry science guys, in the big picture, a century of data, barely counts as a data base.

In the blink of an eye, half a decades work to manage the Colorado River and meet the supply requirement and commitments has faded, as have the water levels in the Colorado River’s two prime reservoirs. Lake Mead and Lake Powell.   Today science is telling to expect less in the furture.

Lake Powell Water Levels

The opportunity to own water rights in this arid region, especially at today’s prices will soon go by the way side. This offering price is currently subject to change without notice.

Some of our Blog Sites

Irrigated Nevada Farm and Ranch Land Blog

Land in Nevada Blog

Water Rights in Nevada Blog

We have cattle ranches with live springs filling stock tanks to water the cattle, and the ranch owns those water rights. We have sections of land with irrigation pivots watering grains like wheat and barley, as well as potatoes, and alfalfa. These irrigation pivots are fed from wells on the land and the farmers own those water rights.

Mesquite can continue down the path set some years back as a high end, wealthy, golf, and gaming lifestyle community with great weather. Mesquite did a good job developing this image, but times are changing and the market has changed. The higher end home market in Mesquite has not yet seen the worst of this market.

For those claiming the credit for Mesquite’s booming past, the truth is, Mesquite’s growth had a great deal to do with market timing, funny money, and the Palm Springs hype. At the same time, many builders took advantage and cut corners, in many cases, they were just too busy to pay attention to the details, in other cases just greedy or both, but the consumers and the market allowed this.

The high-end housing market is a very competitive and shrinking market. New homes being built today continue to get smaller nationally. While Mesquite has focused on expensive HOA’s, gated neighborhoods, streetscapes, and image, our competition is focusing on future cost saving efficiency and sustainable living. The City of Mesquite talks about economic development, but talk is cheap, and in my opinion, their efforts at economic development are stagnant at best and maybe taking the city backwards. More baseball fields will not restart the real estate engine that has driven Mesquite’s economy for many years.

“Will I Have Enough Money in Retirement?”  Very few baby boomers have not given this question considerable thought.

Even a free and clear home is not free to live in, homeowner association costs, taxes, insurance, maintenance, and utility costs all go on forever and will keep going up.

The boomers are just starting to retire this year and will be retiring at a pace of 8000 to 10,000 per day for the next nineteen years. These cost conscious retirees are Mesquite’s future target market.

Besides recent asset value losses and reduced personal net worth, they are concerned, if not living in fear about future health care costs, pension stability, social security, debt, inflation, and their future cost of living. If they are smart, they are deleveraging for retirement, not taking on more debt.

For most, they grew up thinking real estate had little or no risk. The reality that there is downside risk in real estate has hit them, as a generation, hard.

We all know a huge percentage of the baby boomer generation has not saved enough money.

Looking forward, some of the most relevant results of the recent past will be the way they view their money. Their attitude about debt. Their attitude about investing in residential real estate is fundamentally changing. It is no longer viewed as a quick way to wealth; rather it is where they live. They have also realized that leverage or debt has plenty in common with a margin account used for trading stocks. Basically, gambling with borrowed money. The days of flipping homes are gone, and affordability is now and will be in the future their focus. They have become far more cautious and conservative.

Finances in most cases will dictate their lifestyle choices, including where they will live.

Mesquite MLS showed 285 single family homes sold and closed with a median price of $184,900 for 1732 square feet or about $106 per square foot of heated space in 2010. Mesquite MLS as of mid January 2011 shows 355 active listed residential properties plus the unlisted new home supply, and Las Vegas MLS listed foreclosures, short sales, etc. There are likely well over 500 properties for sale today in Mesquite. 

Clark County records show 73 total sales at Sun City for 2010; this includes resales and new home Pulte Sun City sales. The most recent 2011-email marketing from Sun City shows 24 Spec homes in their current standing inventory, these have come down in price to an average of around $150 per square foot asking price. There are also currently per Mesquite MLS 29 listed resale homes at Sun City, with a median asking price of $254,900 or $147 per square foot. Pulte Del Webb expected to sell 50 homes per month when they opened the project 43 months ago; it looks like that projection is off by about 70%.

On the residential vacant land side, five distressed subdivisions sold, all up in the newer Mesquite Heights/ Canyon Crest area. They consisted of a total of 223 acres and sold combined for $2,650,000 or $12,000 per acre. If the builder puts six homes per acre, that is an average cost basis of $2,000 per lot. Infrastructure and grading costs could bring this cost basis up to $30,000 per lot. The lower cost basis in the land should allow for very affordable homes to be built, that is a Heads Up! This could also be why only three single-family resale lots sold with a median price of $71,000, in 2010 per Mesquite MLS. As if 10,000 to 12,000 vacant lots are not enough, the vacant land market just got much larger as the Mesquite City Council approved annexing around 5000 acres in Lincoln County into Mesquite’s City limits for future development.

The condominium market closed 142 units at a median price of $79,900 for 1130 square feet or $73 per square foot, per Mesquite MLS.

The town home market closed 126 units at a median price of $115,000 for 1360 square feet or $92 per square foot, per Mesquite MLS.

The City of Mesquite issued 201 new home building permits in 2010, which is nearly double the 105 issued in 2009.

The Clark County records full transfer and bank sold residential properties for 89027 and 89034, Mesquite and Sun City respectively showed combined 514 transactions in 2009 and 721 transactions in 2010. November 2010 there were 13 pages of Notice of Defaults filed in Mesquite or 37 housing units in one month. Also in November 2010, there were 39 residential units on the Notice of Sale report. The NOD and NOS numbers are tomorrow’s foreclosures and then future inventory. Based on this one month, there are well over twelve months supply in distress and likely headed to the market. This is shadow inventory!

Only 8 residential units were foreclosed on in November, these show up as sales in these full transfer and bank numbers and everyone was purchased by Fannie, Freddie, a holding company, or a bank. On these sales, they generally pay the amount of the outstanding loan, which is not current market value, and these sales can be used to manipulate the price numbers. Buyer beware of numbers, you had better understand what you are looking at.

These numbers also prove the continued reluctance on the part of the Banks, Holding companies, Fannie, Freddie, and FDIC to actually confront and deal with reality and this can only prolong the mess. I believe in fact, it is prolonging it and making it worse. Expect more short sales, strategic defaults, and foreclosures. This continued high level of market distress and the upcoming inventory/supply combined with the new home building supply will continue to put downward pressure on residential prices in 2011. I would guess for some years to come.

The current Obama administrations efforts at saving homeowners and preserving values, is a total failure and huge waste of tax dollars. They do appear to be making the Big Banks wealthy again.

No commercial buildings or land closed through Mesquite MLS in 2010. Yet 13 commercial building permits were issued in 2009 and another 9 in 2010. There is a huge amount of empty commercial space, office, retail, light industrial, and a huge amount of vacant commercial land in nearly all zoning categories. This market segment is still in for a serious reality check.

The Mesquite Market appears to be getting worse from a supply and demand point of view.

If you are considering shopping the Mesquite real estate market without the benefit of a buyer’s agent representing you and your best interests, you could be placing yourself at risk of making a serious financial mistake.

For more on agency and representation read     www.MesquiteMarket.com 

If they can not sell homes based on real value and honest supply side numbers, then create a false supply number and trick those stupid consumers.

Foreclosure freeze will have a “cause and effect” in the residential real estate markets across the country. The most damaging affects will be in the regions where prices increased the most during booming funny money years.

First, home sales will stall. Who is going to buy residential real estate when they know the banks are sitting on millions of distressed properties that eventually must be sold. The idea that they can manipulate the supply side and hold the consumers hostage to higher pricing may work on a few less informed, less sophisticated buyers. It is based on the assumption that most consumers are stupid, and this is simply not true.

Second, strategic defaults will increase. Who is going to keep making mortgage payments on a home mortgage that has a much higher balance than the home is worth. Today the average homeowner lives in the home for 15 to 18 months after they default or stop making mortgage payments. The foreclosure freeze will add to the time a homeowner can live for free in the home once they have defaulted on the payments. Based on what we know right now, due to litigation and the foreclosure freeze, it could stretch the free living time out for years. This is a huge incentive for many to stop paying their mortgage payments.

Third, the foreclosure freeze will cause an inventory backlog or shadow inventory will increase. The increase in shadow inventory creates a false market picture for those touting home sales. Builders, real estate sales people, politicians can all use this false supply picture to create urgency and fleece consumers. Shadow inventory is difficult to count and harder to quantify in terms of real value. Supply and demand are as reliable as gravity, you can depend on it. When you artificially manipulate the supply side or hide (shadow inventory) the real inventory, you are deceiving the consumers. This appears to be deliberate deception by the Obama economic administration (Harry Reid supports the freeze) and the banks, to fool those stupid consumers into buying over priced homes. It is an attempt to artificially hold up the inflated home prices. An attempt to draw more misinformed people into the housing mess.

The last three years have brought us numerous forms of government and bank attempts to interfere with the free markets. They have ranged from bank bailouts to artificially low mortgage rates and more. The huge majority of mortgage loans being made today are low interest rate, low down payment government backed loans, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, USDA, all artificial manipulation of the markets. None of these programs have worked, the distress is increasing and values are still falling. This is just one of Obama’s economic failures. Now with the foreclosure freeze, they intend to hide the real supply of homes available.

Until the market actually gets past the overhang of distressed homeowners, the backlog of inventory of over extended homeowners, anyone buying a home may be paying too much. The best deals are yet to come.

Free markets work, home values based on honest, real supply and demand do appreciate. When home values are based on dishonest numbers, it is little more than are house of cards. Obama’s economic team and his special interest buddies at the banks have created and continue to add on to their house of cards.

If you are thinking of moving, consider renting!

They have already spent $ 80 Billion Dollars on Green stimulus bailout, and by the way, Harry Reid is claiming credit for the few short term jobs in Nevada this money created in his political race against Sharron Angle.

Southern Nevada Water Authority has proposed a pipeline from Las Vegas through Lincoln County and continuing into White Pine County on to the North. The Las Vegas Valley water district, now SNWA, filed 146 ground water applications in 1989 for undeveloped, unproven ground water in Eastern Nevada. This spark has lit the fuse for the battles to come. They do not at this time have approval for the water needed to supply this pipeline.　

The Colorado River Compact allows Las Vegas 400,000 acre feet of water from Lake Mead. On average, one acre foot will supply two homes per year. A study by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego said there’s a 50 percent chance that Lake Mead, could run dry by 2021. In the last ten years Lake Mead has dropped from around 1200 ft. to below 1100 ft. today. At 1050 ft. Hoover Dam will stop generating electricity, and at 1000 ft. Las Vegas will lose the lower intake for the city‘s water supply.　

Currently Lake Mead (The Colorado River) supplies 90% of the water to the Las Vegas Metro area. The Colorado River serves Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Wyoming, Utah, and Mexico, over 30 million people live in this region. We now know that based on the twenty year river flow study leading up to the Colorado River Compact in 1922, the river was over allocated by one million acre feet when the compact was signed and the shortage has only become worse.　

The NASA/German Aerospace Center Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (Grace) study has found since 2003 the aquifers for California’s primary agricultural region the Central Valley and its major mountain water source the Sierra Nevada have lost nearly enough water combined to fill Lake Mead, America’s largest reservoir. This area represents nearly one sixth of all the United States irrigated land and the dropping water tables have the potential to have huge implications to the US economy. 

None of this news is new , in fact the warnings have been ignored for over one hundred years. Panelists Bruce Babbit, Pat Mulroy, Sandra Postel and The Aspen Institute’s Environment Forum are apparently more interested in advancing their agenda than dealing with facts and truth.　

John Wesley Powell told the International Irrigation Congress in Los Angeles in 1893,

I wonder what John Wesley Powell would think today?　

How limited are your water resources?

Chris W. Miller

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